$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '.').. The concept of resource wars in these forums is also way overblown. I doubt the Chinese army is going to have many options. This is an issue that needs some input from some knowledgable military people. As far as I know, the Chinese do not have a Navy or Air Force capable of supporting an invasion of the Persian Gulf. Their military advantage is a large land army and nukes. I doubt it is feasible for them to run a supply chain over the Islamic mountains to reach the Persian Gulf. They have a real adversary on their own border in Russia. Might be a real bad idea to march your army over land half way around the world to do what, destroy the oil infrastructure in a knock down drag out fight with the US, Europe, Russia and all the local suicide kooks? I don't get it. Oh yeah, and your main enemy is sitting on a trillion dollars of your assets in NY. Real smart.
It would be interesting if the predictors of resource wars would provide some realistic scenarios of how China is going to use their military in this regard.
PeakOil is You
Peak Oil is Contrived!
Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!
by Daryl » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 03:00:32
Robert Kaplan is saying that we could get a new cold war between China and the US. China is rapidly increasing its defense budget. And Russia does not seem to be an adversary, but an ally. These two have recently done a huge joint military exercise. Taiwan and the South China Sea seem likely candidates for conflict (EEZ seem to cause a lot of disagreement, multiple countries claim the same islands and thus its corresponding EEZ). Resource Wars have happened in the past, they happen today, they will happen in the future.
Oh yeah? I like Robert Kaplan. Very smart guy. Comes on Charlie Rose now and then. Of course there is alot of worry about where China is heading militarily. There are plenty of alarmists out there and others exagerrating Chinese threats in order to get their weapons built, so you have to discount some of what you read. As far as I can tell, in terms of "power projection" the Chinese militarily are limited to the East Asian rim. In a crunch, any oil resources in this area belong to them, I think we can assume. Not alot of oil in South China Sea really, is there? I don't see the US putting up a fight in that area, so no war there, except maybe between China and Vietnam. That would be a good one, US enters on the side of Vietnam. Not going to happen. Not enough oil to justify it, is there? Correct me if I'm wrong.
I don't think there is any question that the Chinese do not have the military capability to invade the Persian Gulf, particularly since it is already an "American lake". Even though they are increasing their defense budget, it is safe to assume they will never have that capability within the Peak Oil time frame i.e. next 50 years.
Where, then, are the US and China going to fight over a substantial oil reserve? West Africa....Venezuela....Mexico...are they going to come up and take ANWAR? Also out of Chinese range. Heck, they sure have the capability to blow everything up and disrupt shipping lanes, I don't see what they would gain with these tactics. I think it will be in their interest to cooperate with people a little bit. I'm still having trouble imagining a conventional conflict between the US and China over an oil rich region.
As far as Russia is concerned, I was merely mentioning how absurd it is to think China could march their army overland to the Persian Gulf. I don't care how many exercises they go on with the Russians. They aren't going to leave that border undefended.
-
Daryl - Tar Sands
- Posts: 927
- Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!
by CARVER » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 09:51:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '.').. I think it will be in their interest to cooperate with people a little bit. I'm still having trouble imagining a conventional conflict between the US and China over an oil rich region.
When a country is building up arms there is a change in the status quo. Why are they building up arms? What is their intention? Should we be worried? Maybe we should build up our arms too? And we get an arms race again. Both sides can get paranoid (might be justified). They will try to make allies in the important areas. Supply these countries with weapons and give them assurance that they will defend them. These countries can get into a conflict over resources (in the Caspian Sea for example). The US and China and Russia will be supporting opposite sides.
I also think it is better to cooperate, but the PNAC is not planning to cooperate, they will not give up their supremacy. Which is not a comforting thought.
-
CARVER - Lignite
- Posts: 396
- Joined: Thu 19 May 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Holland
Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!
by Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 11:21:42
I'm afraid conflict has slightly more historical evidence backing it than co-operation.
i.e. all of it.
i.e. all of it.
---
- Battle_Scarred_Galactico
- Tar Sands
- Posts: 935
- Joined: Thu 07 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!
by Daryl » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 13:10:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'I')'m afraid conflict has slightly more historical evidence backing it than co-operation.
i.e. all of it.
i.e. all of it.
Fair enough, but at the same time why didn't the US and Soviet Union ever fight it out? Because of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). The costs outweighed the benefits. Is it possible that globalization has turned large scale war between economic partners into an economic MAD? European tribes, kingdoms and nation-states slaughtered each other for over a millenium. We've had 60 years of peace in Europe now and prospects for this continuing far into the future look pretty good. If it holds, it will be in great part because of the economic interdependence that has developed. Again, I didn't state that fears of resource wars are unfounded, just overstated.
As far as arms build-ups, I would think that from the Chinese point of view, the world doesn't look so friendly. They have a long porous border with a Russia, a heavily armed, nuclear ex-superpower. To their West is Islam. Wonderful....especially since they have a large Islamic population within their own Western borders. To their south, India, and lovely places like Tibet and Pakistan. To their east they are hemmed in by allies of US and Europe ie Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. IOW, they are pretty much surrounded. Not suprising they would spend some money on defense. Compare their position geographically to that of the US. You think they wouldn't like to change places?
Again, from a strictly military point of view, I don't think the Chinese are capable of doing much more than seizing the oil in the South China Sea. It's not easy to project power globally. That's why the US used Iraq as a pretext to move heavy armored divisions into the Persian Gulf. It took 3 infantry divisions almost a year to move their equipment and supply chain from places like Fort Carson and Fort Benning. Not quick enough to act if a Bin Laden type stages a coup in Riyad. You're stuck with smart bombs, Navy Seals and the 82nd airborne, not sufficient force to take and hold Riyad and reinstall the House of Saud. I don't think the Chinese have even a tenth of the US air and naval transport capablities. They are helpless in that sense.
So, small regional conlicts are a certainty. Large scale conflicts between large powers might not happen.
-
Daryl - Tar Sands
- Posts: 927
- Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
