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Peak Oil is Contrived!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 05:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')It's called a switch. Turn off your F-n aircons, mansions of lights,
deep fried every f-n thing, 3000 entertainment appliances, 3 TVs,
3 computers, 84 kitchen gizmos, electric can openers (oh fer
F*(* sake!), electric toothbrushes (oh no....), and then there's
that thing you drive that most armies would mount a cannon
on to justify the fuel burn.

Most of all get off yer fat arses and walk or ride. You may have less
diabetes and heart disease that way. You might even be able to
save shitloads of energy in the manufature and distribution of the
drugs and medication you need to keep your obese bodies alive.

You bitch about fuel costs and yet i bet you pay more for orange
juice and a bottle of water.

Grow up. PO isn't the end of civilisation. It's the end of a lifestyle-
yours!




Are you aware that not everyone lives the way you characterize above? I sure don't. You seem to be advocating conservation as the solution. What about those who have very little they can cut out of their "lifestyle?" What if they have already cut back? Cut back more you say? That means a decrease in the standard of living. Which is what many doomers say is going to happen, with or without conservation. So, if you're advocating decreasing the standard of living, you're agreeing with the doomers.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')he inevitable die-off necessitated by overshoot will apply differently depending upon where you are in the Petri dish. In the third-world, the inability to purchase or grow food will cause starvation, malnutrition, and markedly increase the death rate. Many starving countries rely on exports of cash crops to survive. They won’t be able to afford IMF debt, nor the energy required for irrigation, petrochemicals, or fertilizers.

In the 1st world, our standard of living will decline markedly. In some ways, modern civilization has allowed us to redirect or satisfy the desire to reproduce by allowing us to acquire things—material possessions—in place of having children. Our "material infant mortality" will increase dramatically. I see an end to NASCAR and long commutes, long-haul trucking, and an implosion of our urban sprawl and financial systems. Unemployment will rise beyond belief. People will have to actually work for a living, rather than live off investments.

This might seem, in principle, an alternative to the more literal form of die-off which is an abrupt increase in human mortality. Of course, there will be a lack of available, affordable medical care, resulting in a lower life expectancy. Poorer diets will also lower life expectancy. As the standard of living declines, more of the lower income and elderly will starve, freeze to death, or die from heat exhaustion, as do every year. Depending upon the rate of decline of available energy, the attrition could be slow or quite fast.

At first, we will live off conservation and efficiency, and then we will work down through our standard of living until such time as a balance will once again be achieved with nature. Will we be able to find sustainability along the way and bring our population under control? Will we quickly evolve a new economy and a new basis for civilization—or continue to secure stable supplies from the rest of the world by force, as the military footprint in the Middle East suggests.

We can hope to soften the shock, but unless there is a general awakening and decisions at the planetary scale to bring radical change in the domain of energy, civilization will confront the most acute and no doubt most violent upheaval in recent history. This unavoidable prophecy is being universally ignored, denied, or underestimated. Rare are those who realize exactly how close and how great is its advent.


http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic10962-0.html
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby orz » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 05:48:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you aware that not everyone lives the way you characterize above? I sure don't. You seem to be advocating conservation as the solution. What about those who have very little they can cut out of their "lifestyle?" What if they have already cut back? Cut back more you say? That means a decrease in the standard of living. Which is what many doomers say is going to happen, with or without conservation. So, if you're advocating decreasing the standard of living, you're agreeing with the doomers.


I know at least 10 towns full of people who live as he described. Sure my evidence is anecdotal, but then again, so is yours. :P

But seriously, I really doubt that even 80% of the energy we use in the US is completely necessary to maintain our standard of living. Though on this issue, I agree that, there will be some significant lifestyle changes, at least for awhile.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 05:59:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', '
')But seriously, I really doubt that even 80% of the energy we use in the US is completely necessary to maintain our standard of living. Though on this issue, I agree that, there will be some significant lifestyle changes, at least for awhile.


Our standard of living is based on discretionary spending to a large degree. That excess energy use translates to someone else's job. What will all the unemployed people do? "Something else" I guess. Like "be homeless."
Ludi
 

Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 06:39:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', '
')But seriously, I really doubt that even 80% of the energy we use in the US is completely necessary to maintain our standard of living. Though on this issue, I agree that, there will be some significant lifestyle changes, at least for awhile.


Our standard of living is based on discretionary spending to a large degree. That excess energy use translates to someone else's job. What will all the unemployed people do? "Something else" I guess. Like "be homeless."


How about paying someone to clean up decades of pollution and
environmental degradation? Why is a TV worthy of discretionary
spending and your drinking water not?

The former is called lifestyle and the latter a tax, but they're actually
the same thing eventually.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 06:46:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')How about paying someone to clean up decades of pollution and
environmental degradation?


Sounds great. I bet a lot of people would enjoy doing that for a living, physical labor outside mucking around in a lot of toxic materials. But, as I'm sure you'd agree, it would beat being homeless.

Still have to wonder where the money for it would come from, though....

Paid by whom?
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 06:50:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')How about paying someone to clean up decades of pollution and
environmental degradation?


Sounds great. I bet a lot of people would enjoy doing that for a living, physical labor outside mucking around in a lot of toxic materials. But, as I'm sure you'd agree, it would beat being homeless.

Still have to wonder where the money for it would come from, though....

Paid by whom?


Where i live heaps of people volunteer for tree planting and waterways
clearing of noxious weeds. We have 2 city wide clean up days of garbage.
No-one gets paid.

If u have discretionary spending for another TV to add to the other
3 that no-one watches then u have enough to pay someone to clean
your environment. You should have paid for it in the cost of that
crap piece of plastic called a TV. But people don't.

Maybe it's a tax. Who cares. It brings mutual benefit for all.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 07:05:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')Maybe it's a tax. Who cares. It brings mutual benefit for all.


But where does the money for the tax come from if the majority of people have lost their jobs? Where does the discretionary income come from when they aren't working anymore?

I'm just trying to get a clear idea of this plan you seem to have, and I'm not able to grasp it.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 07:09:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')Where i live heaps of people volunteer for tree planting and waterways
clearing of noxious weeds. We have 2 city wide clean up days of garbage.


So people are happy to do this work for two days. How many would be happy/contented to do it every work day?

I don't know what you do for a living doufus, maybe you do physical labor for a living. But most middle class people don't do physical labor for a living anymore and it will be quite hard for them to make this transition.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:11:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')Where i live heaps of people volunteer for tree planting and waterways
clearing of noxious weeds. We have 2 city wide clean up days of garbage.


So people are happy to do this work for two days. How many would be happy/contented to do it every work day?

I don't know what you do for a living doufus, maybe you do physical labor for a living. But most middle class people don't do physical labor for a living anymore and it will be quite hard for them to make this transition.


Ludi, I'm not claiming that a restructured economy will just be land care
etc or that it won't be painful to develop a lower energy society.
People may be unemployed, underemployed, community employed
and homeless. The extent of this is the issue.

But i fundamentally think that it's all doable- technologically and
logistically. Certainly its not the end of civilisation.

good example- pacific islands are now using coconut oil to blend into
their diesel generators. Good import replacement and only made
possible by current oil prices.

Electricity will go on. the economy will go on. human ingenuity is
worth banking on.

What did the US do before consumerism went nuts? People will
adjust over time. they have no choice.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:19:59

I think you may be debating a virtual non-issue, doufus. Very, very few people say peak oil will mean "the end of civilization." They say peak oil will mean "the end of the way of life we are used to." Which you seem to agree with.

So I'm not sure where all the debating and even flaming is coming in, with all this basic agreement.
Ludi
 

Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:28:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') think you may be debating a virtual non-issue, doufus. Very, very few people say peak oil will mean "the end of civilization." They say peak oil will mean "the end of the way of life we are used to." Which you seem to agree with.

So I'm not sure where all the debating and even flaming is coming in, with all this basic agreement.


True. But there are many people advocating a "give up" all too late
attitude which promotes panic and survivalism. People survived
WWII and it's massive restructuring of the economy, jobs, separation
and loss. That was the end of life as they knew it and they came out
the other side. Many things changed for the better. Different is not always worse.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:32:05

I don't think I've seen many people advocating "give up." I see many, many people saying "We've got to do something NOW! We've got to change our way of life NOW!" No, I don't see many people saying give up.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:35:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') don't think I've seen many people advocating "give up." I see many, many people saying "We've got to do something NOW! We've got to change our way of life NOW!" No, I don't see many people saying give up.


MAny of the survivalist crowd have. The basic philosophy of survivalism
is me, myself and I. My needs above all others at whatever cost,
including your life if I so deem.

When people bail out of the system they cause panic and hysteria
that only makes it worse.

That's my objection.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:38:42

Maybe you should be debating the survivalists, then, instead of people who aren't survivalists. Monte is not a survivalist, neither am I.
Ludi
 

Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby jato » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:51:38

Yes doufus, start a survivalism debate! I will participate if you can have a serious discussion.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 09:00:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'Y')es doufus, start a survivalism debate! I will participate if you can have a serious discussion.


oh gawd.

hey jato what is that picture you use? It looks like a cross between
darth vader and a dalek. Seriously, did the US ever get Dr. Who
and the daleks?

Well anyway it looks like a vacuum cleaner or a garbage bin with
airhoses or something. I'm not trying to be smart, it's just that the
flag is behind it and i couldn't make out if it was meant to be serious
or funny.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby doufus » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 09:10:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'M')aybe you should be debating the survivalists, then, instead of people who aren't survivalists. Monte is not a survivalist, neither am I.


Yeah but Monte has this monastic intonation of "All toooooooo laaaaate",
"forget it, nothing will work". It's unclear if he's referring to
the existing energy society, a soft landing, a mere recession,
1929 here we come, head for the hills or zombies are my diet.

Essentially my view is that circumstances will dictate actions.
Severe energy costs will ensure severe conservation, severe efficiencies,
severe government intervention in every area of your life, like it or
not, severe focus on the common good even if some lose out.

Like i said elsewhere, in countries i've worked in people deregister
their cars for their 2 week holiday and save $50 (and they're rich).
I had to pay for the paper of all personal fax messages. (1c US)

Frugality can be amazingly effective. And there probably won't be
a choice.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Daryl » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 09:40:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', 'A') few comments, as i think i am starting to see where the frustrated new people who are posting are missing what monte and matt and ludi and others are trying to say.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, don't believe this nonsense that the US doesn't have the resources to build electric cars and more power plants. The cost is peanuts and it will be easily accomplished in the crisis environment that higher oil prices will create


Daryl, no where did anyone say we Can't do this. Yes, with about 15 years of Huge investment we could do this. By huge, i mean the resources of an entire nation focused on this one thing. During that time, oil will decline up to 30 percent. (assuming we notice the peak year one and it only declines 2 percent a year on average).



Well, it's not so hard to imagine that at the same time discretionary consumption would fall 2 % per year, probably alot more since oil prices will be higher. A 1% increase in alternative energy availability seems reasonable to postulate also. That leaves 15 years to convert even half the auto fleet to EV/superhybrid and expand the grid, ( in which case oil consumption will be dropping even faster). The US has a $12 trillion economy. They fork out $6B a day in Iraq like it's tip money. That's just the government, which spends 2.5 trillion per year. The private sector dwarfs that. Monte has already posted that it costs only $1.6 trillion to substantially upgrade the entire infrastructure, roads, bridges, the grid, mass transit, everything. You have to put these dollar numbers in perspective. Building electric cars and some power plants is not a strain on resources.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 10:34:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
') They fork out $6B a day in Iraq like it's tip money.


Do you mean $6B per month?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')That's just the government, which spends 2.5 trillion per year. The private sector dwarfs that. Monte has already posted that it costs only $1.6 trillion to substantially upgrade the entire infrastructure, roads, bridges, the grid, mass transit, everything. You have to put these dollar numbers in perspective. Building electric cars and some power plants is not a strain on resources.


I think it is a strain on resources and more of a strain every day that we wait. If we started now while oil is still reasonable, we could just outpace PO decline, even assuming peak came this year. If until a year or two after peak, as is more likely, we'll have to resort to rationing. Still, at 80% of peak oil there's still a lot of the black stuff sloshing around. 20% demand destruction could be achieved very easily with rationing and high gas taxes. During WWII the government routinely sucked up 50% plus of key resources like rubber, alluminum, steel, oil, etc. That leaves the remaining 80% to retool the infrastructure.

Nevertheless, I would quibble with your "not a strain" comment. Every day that we wait makes the strain that much greater, and yes, I think there would come a tipping point on the downward curve where it would become impossible. I don't think that will happen. Once PO reaches a Katrina-sized problem you can bet people will wake up in a hurry. We'll see such a flurry of investment in rail/nuclear/wind/EV, etc. that it will make our heads spin.

I suspect we'll come out the other side looking somewhat ruffled, but mostly we'll be wondering why we didn't take those steps earlier.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 11:14:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', 'n')ice contrib JD. But doomers will just say it's impossible to implement, not enough even if it was and too late in any case.


No, the cornucopians say a powerdown is impossible. With our current world view, I agree. If that were to change, then it might be possible,but only with a population reduction.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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