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Peak Oil is Contrived!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby orz » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:04:52

What you choose to believe is irrelevant.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:09:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', 'W')hat you choose to believe is irrelevant.


So you don't mind having made a totally unconvincing argument?

How is a new infrastructure within our means if we can't even maintain the existing infrastructure?
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:20:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ' ')I have no reason to believe you.


That's because it's against your religion. You cannot believe him because it contradicts your faith that we are DOOMED.

We built a rail network from scratch in the 19th Century. I'm pretty sure we could expand our existing (admittedly decrepit) system in the 21st.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:28:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ' ')I have no reason to believe you.


That's because it's against your religion. You cannot believe him because it contradicts your faith that we are DOOMED.


Honey, baby, sweetie-pie. I'm not even a doomer! I'm a moderate, and pretty darned optimistic. I just see many lame arguments supporting hopeful wishes here, with little evidence.

Yes, I agree we could possibly build new rail systems if we don't mind using slave labor or virtual slave labor as was done in the 19th century.

Human energy - the energy of the future!
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby orz » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:35:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow is a new infrastructure within our means if we can't even maintain the existing infrastructure?


Our priorities are currently in the wrong place. Peak oil will probably change that. I could do a bit of research about the rail thing and prove that it would not be costly, but you're not in a position to affect change, so what's the use. Anyway, there's always human labor, and there's definitely gonna be plenty of that around after the auto industry crashes.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:42:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Honey, baby, sweetie-pie. I'm not even a doomer! I'm a moderate, and pretty darned optimistic. I just see many lame arguments supporting hopeful wishes here, with little evidence.


How are you a moderate if you think that modern technology is incapable of achieving what our proto-industrial ancestors did with fewer resources of every kind?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, I agree we could possibly build new rail systems if we don't mind using slave labor or virtual slave labor as was done in the 19th century. Human energy - the energy of the future!


I think you underestimate what humans can do when properly motivated. The Russians moved their entire industrial base east of the Urals as the Germans overran European Russia and the Ukraine. Americans sent men to the moon with less computing power that I have in my cell phone.

If stuff gets hairy I have little doubt that the remaining (and still plentiful) oil resources will be rationed, war-style, to do whatever it takes to overhaul the infrastructure to deal with new realities. People on this site keep saying how broke and overstretched the United States and other countries are. Sure, but only in the pursuit of useless crap and providing generous social services. On a war footing social spending would disappear and other draconian measures would occur to see that the battle would be won.

Now, my view is that the pain could be greatly lessened with a little foresight. We could embark on a massive rail/nuclear/wind program tomorrow and probably emerge in ten years wealthier and with cleaner air. Of course, this won't happen, but when the years of ominous rumbling finally hit with an energy Pearl Harbor, you can bet that we'll fight like hell to win the war.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:43:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ' ')I could do a bit of research about the rail thing and prove that it would not be costly, but you're not in a position to affect change, so what's the use.


I believe we're all in a position to affect change.

I guess I just have to wonder why you're even arguing in this thread if you aren't willing to support your arguments? I certainly don't mind you posting your opinion, as long as you admit it is merely your opinion with no supporting evidence. We're all full of opinions here. But if you're here to try to persuade people one way or another, which I thought you were, evidence or support of some kind is really helpful.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby orz » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:45:29

What else can they be other than opinions? None of us here can predict the future. Just trying to give my take on it.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:46:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')
How are you a moderate if you think that modern technology is incapable of achieving what our proto-industrial ancestors did with fewer resources of every kind?


I'm not sure who you're referring to as "proto-industrial ancestors" or what you think they did....

"Modern technology" is part of the main problem here. It requires enormous amounts of energy. Where is the energy coming from?

I'm a moderate, not a doomer, because I think things will change a lot and we'll all get a lot poorer by First World standards, but probably not many of us outside of the Third World will starve to death. And I base that on pure optimism, not on much evidence at all. If I just went by the evidence, and not my personal hopeful wishes, I'd be a doomer. It's folks like you who make me tend toward the doomer side, because you don't seem interested in really understanding the problem. If you, a person intelligent enough to come here and read a bit about the issue, aren't interested in really understanding it and the changes we'll have to make to avoid the worst, what hope is there that the average Joe is going to be even slightly interested in thinking about the problem, let alone making the needed changes?
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby thuja » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')
I think you underestimate what humans can do when properly motivated. The Russians moved their entire industrial base east of the Urals as the Germans overran European Russia and the Ukraine. Americans sent men to the moon with less computing power that I have in my cell phone.

If stuff gets hairy I have little doubt that the remaining (and still plentiful) oil resources will be rationed, war-style, to do whatever it takes to overhaul the infrastructure to deal with new realities. People on this site keep saying how broke and overstretched the United States and other countries are. Sure, but only in the pursuit of useless crap and providing generous social services. On a war footing social spending would disappear and other draconian measures would occur to see that the battle would be won.

Now, my view is that the pain could be greatly lessened with a little foresight. We could embark on a massive rail/nuclear/wind program tomorrow and probably emerge in ten years wealthier and with cleaner air. Of course, this won't happen, but when the years of ominous rumbling finally hit with an energy Pearl Harbor, you can bet that we'll fight like hell to win the war.


Hey man-this is my vision too- and some days I can see it- people of all political persuasion banding together to save civilization from die-off. But even then, we can't replace our liquid fuel and keep the electric grid running with new nukes/wind/solar/etc. We have to power down significantly and radically change how society runs.

And that's when I see people gettingnasty. "We wants our things, we wants our precious! And we shan't gives it up..."

So some days I'm an optimist, like you king, and some days I'm a pessimist...
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 15:07:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
') It's folks like you who make me tend toward the doomer side, because you don't seem interested in really understanding the problem. If you, a person intelligent enough to come here and read a bit about the issue, aren't interested in really understanding it and the changes we'll have to make to avoid the worst, what hope is there that the average Joe is going to be even slightly interested in thinking about the problem, let alone making the needed changes?


Ah, your arrogance is amazing. So only people who manage to find their way here are intelligent? And because I don't agree with your bleak assessment means I haven't read about the issue or aren't interested in "understanding" it?

You know, I was just paid coin of the realm this week for something I wrote that urges solutions to Peak Oil problems. I also have paid credits in publications with circulations in the hundreds of thousands that deal with other, non-PO history to answer your sneering remark re: the early industrial age. So really, your condescension flies wide of the mark.

The only thing we know for sure is that the future has yet to be written. Past apocalyptic visions have failed to materialize. Jesus has never returned, comets have never annihilated the human race, the nuclear missiles were never launched, etc. Nevertheless, we are facing a crisis and it could be a whopper. I'm hedging my bets by preparing my own life while doing what I can through my own modest efforts to nudge the Titanic out of the way of the impending iceberg.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby perplexd » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 15:42:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'b')ecause I don't agree with your bleak assessment means I haven't read about the issue or aren't interested in "understanding" it?

Past apocalyptic visions have failed to materialize.


This isn't a vision, but a reasoned understanding of why the current situation can't continue and it is also a comprehensive attempt to countenance the denial that looks like it will make the end of said situation extremely chaotic.

Noting that "visions" have failed to materialize is not a very good reason to think that this quite logical non-vision will fail to materialize. The only thing that is going to fail to materialize is the energy to grow a global economy that has forgotten any other modes of healthy existence.

That's not a vision, just a fact. So, shall we do this the easy, powerdown way, or the hard, denial and competition way? That's the only question left here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I') think you underestimate what humans can do when properly motivated.


And hunger and cold are the best motivators of all!
The passing of abundant oil is not shaping up to be a soft landing for those with the fattest asses. - Jan Lundberg
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 15:50:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perplexd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'b')ecause I don't agree with your bleak assessment means I haven't read about the issue or aren't interested in "understanding" it?

Past apocalyptic visions have failed to materialize.


This isn't a vision, it is a reasoned understanding of why the current situation can't continue and it is also a comprehensive attempt to countenance the denial that looks like it will make the end of said situation extremely chaotic.

Noting that "visions" have failed to materialize is not a very good reason to think that this quite logical non-vision will fail to materialize.


Why did you cherry pick from my quote? It completely misrepresents my point. This is what I really said:

The only thing we know for sure is that the future has yet to be written. Past apocalyptic visions have failed to materialize. Jesus has never returned, comets have never annihilated the human race, the nuclear missiles were never launched, etc. Nevertheless, we are facing a crisis and it could be a whopper. I'm hedging my bets by preparing my own life while doing what I can through my own modest efforts to nudge the Titanic out of the way of the impending iceberg.

Note that I called Peak Oil a "crisis" and compared it to the Titanic hitting an iceberg. Nevertheless, those who gleefully rub their hands together imagining that we're all going to starve to death, or, as one poster put it, working as sharecroppers on his farm are no more credible than those who are imagining zero point energy. Sure, it might happen, but I think the worst might still be avoided.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I') think you underestimate what humans can do when properly motivated.


And hunger and cold are the best motivators of all![/quote]

We're in agreement there.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 16:05:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', 'T')his does not qualify you as an energy specialist, economist, sociologist,
statistical modeller, petro geologist, energy market analyst or
anything else.

You need all of the latter and more to really understand PO so may I humbly suggest you are not in a "position to know"" all that much at all.



As you believe. I'll stand on my track record. Isn't that what counts? So far, I have been spot on.

Post Peakoil: the Slow Decline?

These predictions were made in DEC 2004.

He is what I see coming next in bold:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'S')ince virtually all commodities use petroleum fuel to move from production to consumption, as fuel prices rise whether by market forces or by currency decisions by OPEC to offset the loss in revenue as the dollar declines due to our trade imbalance, all commodity prices must also rise. Whew! What a mouthful! This will create inflation. To curb the inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates.


All history now. Inflation continues unabaded.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]And as the price of food and other essential commodities rise--along with house payments tied to variable rate mortgages--luxuries and dispensable goods and services will drop out of the family budgets and the standard of living will decline and unemployment will rise.


Care to wager?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby perplexd » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 16:14:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'S')ure, it might happen, but I think the worst might still be avoided.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perplexd', '
')
And hunger and cold are the best motivators of all!


We're in agreement there.


Doesn't that indicate a contradiction with the worst not happening and the best motivation? You say the worst may be avoided with good motivation, but I think you miss the point of doomers everywhere: the only good motivation appears to come alongside letting the worst actually happen. In this scenario, that motivation is entirely too late to save the system.

Human nature sucks like that. Read Jay Hanson to remove any remaining doubts about the mechanics of human doom.

I "cherry picked" your quote because even though you nominally admit that it is a crisis, you simultaneously think it "might not be bad" without offering any real reasons why it might not be bad, except that Jesus never came back. Is that a reason or argument by false analogy? Peak oil isn't a vision.
The passing of abundant oil is not shaping up to be a soft landing for those with the fattest asses. - Jan Lundberg
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 18:09:12

Wow, KingM, you're such a jerk you can't even take a compliment!

To heck with you!

:P
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Daryl » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 20:03:59

King M. Save your breath.

There are two types of people on this board.

People who are very dissatisified with the current structure of society. They think and hope Peak Oil is going to destroy the status quo. They think that is a good thing.

The other people, like you and myself and others, are trying to discuss how society is going to make the adjustment from cheap oil and still be successful. It is going to be a challenge and there are some risks involved, but it is obviously doable.

If global civilization powers down, billions will die, if not everybody in the nuclear wars that would inevitably break out. The people in group one want this to happen. They are under the naive illusion that life will be better afterward. After the population of the world is reduced to the size that can support a hunter gatherer society, they think some kind of utopian ecofairyland will miraculously emerge. I think is going to be a bunch of smelly illiterates with bad teeth fighting over pieces of raw meat, while they freeze their asses off waiting to die of old age at 34. 10 minutes with that crowd and Kunstler will be running for his Chevy Suburban, a day at the Tanning Hut and a nice hot whirlpool in his air conditioned McMansion.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 20:05:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ow, KingM, you're such a jerk you can't even take a compliment!

To heck with you!


Compliment? Where?

Seriously, though, it's a big subject and an important one. It's no wonder we get heated in the discussion from time to time. I suspect that we're 90% on the same page, you and I. The only people I really have a problem with are those whose post-crash survival plan involves rendering the body fat of the optimists like me for their candles and making haggis from our intestines.

In any event, if I offended you or came across as overly prickly, I'm sorry.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby KingM » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 20:16:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')he only people I really have a problem with are those whose post-crash survival plan involves rendering the body fat of the optimists like me for their candles and making haggis from our intestines.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'F')rankly, I'm beginning to think the real danger to society is if TSHTF and all the Doomers go nuts with their guns and their survivalist crap. You Doomers will try to pull us down. The sane people might need to shoot a few of you as "defeatists" to get the rest of the country pulling in the same direction, and that's only slightly tongue in cheek.


That's right, make Soylent Green of the Doomers before they go nutsy cannibal on the rest of us. ;)

Okay, cutting the crap, I seriously hope that if things collapse that communities pull together in the way I would expect them to in my neck of the world. Even, worst-case scenario if things totally hit the crapper, we can return to a 19th Century level of technology instead of Mad Max/The Postman (Brin's version, not the crappy Hollywood) where every town is run by a petty dictator and the land between is the realm of bandits and murderers.

The Doomer mentality that I see sometimes--such as the guy who said he welcomed mass starvation and that the emaciated survivors could work as sharecroppers on his land--is a good way to assure that we do suffer, and suffer mightily.

I would differenciate that from the mere pessimists, who are often the same people you see running community gardens or organizing affordable housing. These people may be more skeptical of modern society than I am, but would make good neighbors in a crisis.
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Re: Peak Oil is Contrived!

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 20:17:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')
Compliment? Where?



Perhaps it was more along the lines of "damning with faint praise" but I believe I did call you intelligent. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n any event, if I offended you or came across as overly prickly, I'm sorry.


Thank you. It's difficult not to get caught up in our arguments.
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