[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', 'Y')et, here we are, a bit past the Hunter-gatherer stage, no? 2 steps forward, 1 step back.

Don't think I contend that point, only issue for me and many others, is how large a step back? Perhaps the global economy will fade for a few decades and come back? A bit of suffering, some death(more in some areas than in others), but not necessarily a full blown die off.

[orz]

Well, I haven't read the book, but I hope he has more than just that example of hunter gatherers. I'm not ruling out the worst case scenario by any means, but in that case all we can do is look after our own families. And many steps back is different in different areas. In the US, we can still many steps back and still suvive, other places, not so much so.

[azreal60]

For some reason i have to put something before a quote. Tech problems.. grrr $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') agree. There is no good reason that car use cannot reduce by 50% in the developed world relatively easily, rendering peak oil not a problem for the short-medium term.

In a NZ Government document about options for the country in the event of a fuel "shock" 1979 style, there was a startling graph of car usage in NZ that showed the vast majority of car journeys to be discretionary- people using their cars for non-essential purposes.

The market will be the solution to the peak oil problem. If the price of oil goes up to $100 or $200 a barrel, people will reduce their driving, and switch to alternative means. Fuel demand is elastic, the price just hasn't gone high enough yet.

[orz]

Then you must also understand that this state will only be temporary if the government doesn't collapse. Like I said, it's right not to believe in a techno messiah that will let peak oil pass without incident, but ignoring the fact that technology (especially under government control) will fairly quickly advance to the point where we can have a quality of life similar to the one we have now is also not to be denied. Monte is a writer. Matt is a lawyer. Neither is in a position to understand how many smart people there are out there, and how quickly they can create under pressure.

Trust me, if things ever got that bad, I know 100s of incredibly smart people at just my school who would voluntarily work nearly 24/7 to come up with a practical solution. This is why barring any major social upheaval(which I'm not saying won't happen), I believe what we will see is a depression for a couple decades followed by a return to normalcy Perhaps subarbia will be dead (cities are far more interesting IMO anyway), but things need not collapse as Matt (Monte seems to take a more moderate line in this oracle business) seems intent on pointing out.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', ' ')Monte and Matt produce sound arguements for their positions, and in many respects i think they will be correct. But not in all. Even those two have never once said i am Absolutely 100 percent correct, no possibility of being wrong. They have pointed out strong arguements, but one of their strengths as debators is the fact they recognize they are not gods, and are going to be wrong once in a while.

How do i differ in my opinions than them? I don't think there will be a massive die off in the form of people killing each other for food.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ' ')Monte is a writer. Matt is a lawyer. Neither is in a position to understand how many smart people there are out there, and how quickly they can create under pressure.

[orz]

)Oh, no, I agree you're well versed, but I am talking about how fast technology can be developed when the right minds apply themselves to it. Technology only seems to appear magical or religious (the term POers use is messiah?) to those that don't have to dabble with it. We don't really need a massive break through like discovering the existence of gravity(Zero point energy in our case perhaps? ), just the ability to improve on what we have, which is largely grunt work(though the process speeds up significantly if you have smart people analysing the results, hence my point).

You have a commendable diversity of experiences which clearly help you understand many issues relevant to peak oil, but none that seem to apply to understanding the above.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ')')Oh, no, I agree you're well versed, but I am talking about how fast technology can be developed when the right minds apply themselves to it. Technology only seems to appear magical or religious (the term POers use is messiah?) to those that don't have to dabble with it. We don't really need a massive break through like discovering the existence of gravity(Zero point energy in our case perhaps? ), just the ability to improve on what we have, which is largely grunt work(though the process speeds up significantly if you have smart people analysing the results, hence my point).

You have a commendable diversity of experiences which clearly help you understand many issues relevant to peak oil, but none that seem to apply to understanding the above.

[orz]

We don't reallly need any huge breakthroughs at this point. The technology(I'm referring to solar organic cells, reference the Energy and technology section) only needs to be refined, as in the researchers have an idea of where to go next. Is that a guarantee it'll yield something? No, but it's a bit more certain than accidental. Ex:
1. "Oh wow, that's a cool phenomenon"(luck)
2. "It seems that this is what causes this" (intelligence and a little luck)
3. "Well that proves that this is what causes this, so perhaps I could do something related that works on other things and get better results on this"(intelligence, plus a very little luck)

And as I've said numerous times, I'm not saying its going to stop peak oil from having a drastic impact on our lives. So scalability is not an issue as in, "we need to get this stuff up in 2 years or we're doomed." That game, I think you'll agree, is over. I'm talking about where declining demand, through conservation, limited die off(still talking within constraints of a functional society) eventually meets increasing energy from alternative sources. If society can hold itself together, then we will quite rapidly(over 2-3 decades), see that alternative energy can meet its needs and once it exceeds them, we can return to growth. This would involve strong governmental support, but assuming that our current american government presides over this, then they have 2 choices, either go to war over resources(which I still don't think we have the gall to do openly, nor do I think we will be stupid enough to face open competition with China and possibly Russia) or enact a broad energy restructuring program, using remaining resources. I don't see them sitting still. IMO it's a moderate view. Call it a transisition scenario. We aren't going to accept a peramanet powerdown unless we are forced to (through a governmental collapse, or such).

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'W')here you going to get the electricity from? Natural gas is already peaking here in NA and can't readily be transported across oceans, at least not at the scale we need.

[..]

Solar, wind, nuclear etc. . . all the same problem: a matter of scale and a matter of time and money.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')nd hell, even if the elctric cars fail to materialize, we stiil have trams, subways and TGV's (and scooters ).

[azreal60]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')atch the situation degrade slowly until there is nothing left, or will they just plop down some rails in the streets, thereby solving the issue?

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')atch the situation degrade slowly until there is nothing left, or will they just plop down some rails in the streets, thereby solving the issue?

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ' ')Monte is a writer. Matt is a lawyer. Neither is in a position to understand how many smart people there are out there, and how quickly they can create under pressure.

[Tanada]

</q>$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')nd hell, even if the elctric cars fail to materialize, we stiil have trams, subways and TGV's (and scooters ).

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '&')lt;/q>$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')nd hell, even if the elctric cars fail to materialize, we stiil have trams, subways and TGV's (and scooters ).

[orz]

Even the most pessimistic doomer will agree we still have 20 years to peak coal even if we use it at our current rate of oil consumption, so theoretically even if we are cut off from the world due to a collapse of the dollar, we still have the raw energy available to go forth.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', 'E')ven the most pessimistic doomer will agree we still have 20 years to peak coal even if we use it at our current rate of oil consumption, so theoretically even if we are cut off from the world due to a collapse of the dollar, we still have the raw energy available to go forth.

[orz]

That still doesn't change the fact that we physically posses the energy within our borders and can access it if all other sources expire. Oil isn't going to go from 20 MB/D to 0, so if we are running low, then the government has no option but to go for the alternatives, building further infrastructure if necessary. I don't have a $ for how much it'll cost, but if done via expanding rail, it would be well within our means.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orz', ' ')but if done via expanding rail, it would be well within our means.