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Doomers gotta DOOM

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby DefiledEngine » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 13:35:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I'm posting this, without reading the rest of the thread cause the objections to "socialism" are founded on the following private thought:
"The hell with it, bring me the die-off so I can continue living like an idiot in my eco-farm without the genetically inferior tards. I hope that Lynch is one of them, I lost so much money following his advice ".


Really? As far as I know, doomers advocate socialism (or rather, draconian forms of it). Do the soft-landers despise capitalism and current world-systems?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')People stop once they get the answer they like and do not bother finishing off the calcs.
The reality is that regardless of what happens we are screwed


Really? Why are we screwed?
Do people stop once they get answers like: "The oil-age is over, Nuclear will inherit the Earth", too?
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 13:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'C')ornholio> To your point #2. What could be more mainstream than Warren Buffet and Bill Gates the two most weatlhier people of US economy? They are both hedging against dollar. They believe that further 20-30% devaluation is necessary now to escape from the debt burden for a while. That would be more than cumulative 50% devaluation of $ currency from the year 2000 for god's sake! Proposal for loosing 50% value of currency in 6years isn't a strong indication of something rotten in the world's reserve currency and strong trend to you? Got the picture already?


I guess the key to my comment is "zero value," ie a worthless currency. A 50% loss in value is shocking and painful (especially if you have a lot of savings) but the dollar would not be worthless and trade would continue.

Oh, and since Bill and Warren are friends and Warren probably does the financial thinking for Bill (bill said he listens to Warren's lectures and is worried by them) I count that as one person. And as I have almost no savings (but little debt) I guess I dont get too emotional about a loss in the "paper" value of currency that I dont have. I just see it like a bubble that needs to correct itself (like the tech bubble). That (the fact that I have no savings and agree that the dollar is artificially overvalued and should deflate) is probably why I'm not freaked out by the whole situation. I don't have much invested in it. There will be real pain as people lose retirement savings that they counted on, but the "gain" in wealth was an illusion in the first place (IMHO). Longer term my generation is in trouble, as any savings the baby-boomers had will be diminished and they will still vote for a gold-plated retirement, but that is another issue.

(PS- I have zero qualifications to have an opinion on this issue, but thanks for taking my comment seriously enough to reply to it : )
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 13:48:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'I')n the meantime .... we will be building nuclear power plants and offshore wind farms faster than the concrete can harden and move everything to the fucking grid


When will this happen?
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 13:57:05

EnergySpin- I think I best fit #6, too much free time on my hands. I cut back on work recently and have had time to browse thru the internet for conspiracy theories, and here I am.

I am finding that I have socialist leanings. Capitalism is good for stimulating growth, as people rush for and compete for resources, but in times of shortage it will not address distribution of wealth and resources adequately. When survival is an issue distribution of resources must be the priority.

Also, thru doomer fantasies, I have realized that facing even the idea of starvation is scary... So, I will do more for charities now.

I imagine we have a lot of socialism in our future as the aging baby boomers (who didnt save for retirement) vote for expanded social security and medicaid. Couple this demographic trend with deminishing oil and a slipping stock market and socialism (called something else) is sure to appear again. The bad thing is that they will simultaneously fight inheritance or any other tax on the truely wealthy : (
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Byron100 » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 14:07:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'I')n the meantime .... we will be building nuclear power plants and offshore wind farms faster than the concrete can harden and move everything to the fucking grid


When will this happen?


When the American people realize that we have a Really Big Problem and that it's time to do something about it. It is my fervent hope that this happens sooner, rather than later, when we're already well off the peak.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Heineken » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 14:18:40

I'm a socialist for many reasons, but chief among them is both a desire and a need to witness the destruction of the U.S. medical "system" (so-called) (I say "need" because I am about to lose my health insurance.)

If American docs like cornholio (and pharmacists and RNs and other overpaid medicos) were really serious about their supposed mission, they'd be lobbying hard to overturn the current incestuous, profit-driven system of rationing and price fixing and forms layered on forms. I'd bet only 20% of the health care dollars spent in this stupid country ever reach the patient directly. Instead, the medicos and their octopus-like organizations, hand-in-crotch with the government, keep grubbing for ever more money.

It's time to get rid of the specialists, burst the bloated salaries, scrap the exotic technology and procedures (which increasingly have as their primary effect the extension of the lives of dying rich people by a few more weeks), and bring good basic health care to everyone.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby thuja » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 15:49:22

well said Heineken- the current medical system is a joke and eventually will go through a major crisis as the government will not be able to support the bloated pharmaceutical companies and overpaid medical establishment.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby threadbear » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 16:17:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I')'m a socialist for many reasons, but chief among them is both a desire and a need to witness the destruction of the U.S. medical "system" (so-called) (I say "need" because I am about to lose my health insurance.)

If American docs like cornholio (and pharmacists and RNs and other overpaid medicos) were really serious about their supposed mission, they'd be lobbying hard to overturn the current incestuous, profit-driven system of rationing and price fixing and forms layered on forms. I'd bet only 20% of the health care dollars spent in this stupid country ever reach the patient directly. Instead, the medicos and their octopus-like organizations, hand-in-crotch with the government, keep grubbing for ever more money.

It's time to get rid of the specialists, burst the bloated salaries, scrap the exotic technology and procedures (which increasingly have as their primary effect the extension of the lives of dying rich people by a few more weeks), and bring good basic health care to everyone.


Americans have a system with multiple redundancies, a true Kafkaesque bureaucratic nightmare, with the some of the inefficiencies of the socialist system wedded to the worst in croney capitalism.

In order to function fluidly, you have to first reduce military spending, then tax the rich, then institute a govt. one user pay system, a true regulated monopoly. One thing Russia actually did have and Cuba has today is a medical system that worked/works.

Most general practitioners make very little money, and nurses are being imported from the Phillipines to reduce wages in that sector. The only reason specialists are seeing rising pay is the gouging factor that is initiated by the forming of associations that provide approval and licensing. This limits supply.

The ones who are making out like bandits are the pharmas and the insurance companies, who can cherry pick their customer base. In order to serve everyone, economies of scale are needed. In order to manage that AND keep quality high, a transparent govt. monopoly is needed.

Because Americans have never seen a large govt institution function without corruption in a transparent manner they find it hard to believe it's possible.

I agree with you about the tech and life extension. Neither private insurance or public insurance will work if baby boomers insist on prolonging life into some hideous twilight of unsighly tubes, wires and defibbrilators,
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Heineken » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 17:17:49

Another aspect of health care that desperately needs reform is medical education. The whole thing is too elitist and exclusive and long and difficult and expensive. Although the official reason for all this is that it protects patients, the real reason is to create and build a moat around a medical priesthood dedicated primarily to extending the lives of the dying rich by a few weeks and to exalting the status and pay of practitioners. Doctors should not have godlike status in society. Having that status makes them think society is there to serve them instead of the other way around.

We need a new cadre of fully independent caregivers with hands-on, as opposed to extensive academic, training. People who can fix broken bones, suture lacerations, deliver babies, prescribe drugs, and provide all the ordinary sort of care that most people need most of the time. Perhaps there would be more risk for some patients, but at least nearly everyone would have access and be able to afford care.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby LadyRuby » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 17:50:15

My biggest problem with doomers is that no matter what alternative course of action or direction that our future could take, they reject these alternative scenarios without serious consideration. This is why I think doomers can be extremely narrow-minded. They seem afraid to acknowledge that the future may turn out differently than they think, perhaps because they've invested too much (emotionally, financially, otherwise) in their doomer scenario.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 18:00:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')ost general practitioners make very little money


They make 7 - 9 times what I make.

"Despite the decline in real income experienced during the late 1990s, medicine remains one of the highest paid professions in the United States:More than half of all patient care physicians earned more than $150,000 in 1999, while average reported net income was approximately $187,000.Specialists—particularly those who perform expensive procedures—earned considerably more than other doctors. The mean reported income in 1999 for specialists was $219,000, compared with $138,000 for primary care physicians."

http://hschange.org/CONTENT/544/

Have their incomes fallen so much since 1999?
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 18:00:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'M')y biggest problem with doomers is that no matter what alternative course of action or direction that our future could take, they reject these alternative scenarios without serious consideration. This is why I think doomers can be extremely narrow-minded. They seem afraid to acknowledge that the future may turn out differently than they think, perhaps because they've invested too much (emotionally, financially, otherwise) in their doomer scenario.


This is my problem with anti-doomers and cornucopians. Just replace the word "doomer" with "cornucopian" in the paragraph above.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Byron100 » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 18:07:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')nother aspect of health care that desperately needs reform is medical education. The whole thing is too elitist and exclusive and long and difficult and expensive. Although the official reason for all this is that it protects patients, the real reason is to create and build a moat around a medical priesthood dedicated primarily to extending the lives of the dying rich by a few weeks and to exalting the status and pay of practitioners. Doctors should not have godlike status in society. Having that status makes them think society is there to serve them instead of the other way around.

We need a new cadre of fully independent caregivers with hands-on, as opposed to extensive academic, training. People who can fix broken bones, suture lacerations, deliver babies, prescribe drugs, and provide all the ordinary sort of care that most people need most of the time. Perhaps there would be more risk for some patients, but at least nearly everyone would have access and be able to afford care.


I agree a 100%. In addition to the caregivers you mention, there should be a much greater emphasis on individual knowledge of health and self-treatment for minor illnesses and injuries, which would further reduce health care costs.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby LadyRuby » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 19:11:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'M')y biggest problem with doomers is that no matter what alternative course of action or direction that our future could take, they reject these alternative scenarios without serious consideration. This is why I think doomers can be extremely narrow-minded. They seem afraid to acknowledge that the future may turn out differently than they think, perhaps because they've invested too much (emotionally, financially, otherwise) in their doomer scenario.


This is my problem with anti-doomers and cornucopians. Just replace the word "doomer" with "cornucopian" in the paragraph above.


I disagree. Most people on this board who aren't doomers, in my view at least, seem to acknowledge that there are many possible outcomes and although we know things may get very difficult, that we don't know exactly how things will shake out (too many variables, unknowns, etc.). The doomers, on the other hand, seem only to acknowledge one possible outcome.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 19:29:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'T')he doomers, on the other hand, seem only to acknowledge one possible outcome.


Yes, the end of "cheap" energy is nigh. Connect the dots.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby threadbear » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')ost general practitioners make very little money


They make 7 - 9 times what I make.

"Despite the decline in real income experienced during the late 1990s, medicine remains one of the highest paid professions in the United States:More than half of all patient care physicians earned more than $150,000 in 1999, while average reported net income was approximately $187,000.Specialists—particularly those who perform expensive procedures—earned considerably more than other doctors. The mean reported income in 1999 for specialists was $219,000, compared with $138,000 for primary care physicians."

http://hschange.org/CONTENT/544/

Have their incomes fallen so much since 1999?


Ludi, Ask a gyno how much he/she pays for malpractise insurance. Doctor's insurance is going up by leaps and bounds too. A gyno can easily pay 100,000.00 per year.

There are so many extraneous costs associated with the profession that many gp's are now working for corporate clinics that control their costs, but lower their wages. I imagine this is particularly true for any doctor trying to start up a practise. Last I heard, it's not uncommon for a doc to clear 50,000. per year in the US.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby lowem » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 00:58:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')es, the end of "cheap" energy is nigh. Connect the dots.


Right on, sir! But hold on, I think some dots are missing ... :lol:
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby GreyZone » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 01:04:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I') disagree. Most people on this board who aren't doomers, in my view at least, seem to acknowledge that there are many possible outcomes and although we know things may get very difficult, that we don't know exactly how things will shake out (too many variables, unknowns, etc.). The doomers, on the other hand, seem only to acknowledge one possible outcome.


Verbally acknowledging that other outcomes are possible is hardly taking them seriously. People acknowledge that we might get an asteroid strike someday but no one actually takes that seriously right now. And by seriously, I mean that no one actually modifies their actual behavior patterns to include consideration of the possible effects of such an event.

People on the Gulf Coast take hurricanes seriously. People in the midwest do not. There is a distinct difference in their actions. It's not large but the difference is there and measurable. Hurricane region residents do things like keep supplies stocked in case of a hurricane, keep plywood stocked and/or already cut and fitted for boarding up their house. They learn and monitor evacuation routes and usually have plans to head somewhere specific when such storms threaten. I don't know anyone in the midwest who does this (and rightly so since they are not threatened by hurricanes).

What I would expect from anyone who takes peak oil's more catastrophic scenarios seriously is actual actions that can demonstrate some actual link between simple mental acknowledgement and a decision to actually do something. I will tell you that I have never ever met a cornucopian who has taken actions to address the more catastrophic possibilities inherent in peak oil. But I have met "doomers" who have taken those actions and yet continue to invest in the stock market, work, etc., which shows that these people are also considering the possibility that things might muddle through without too much damage.

In short the cornucopians speak words but the words have zero consequences in terms of actions. Some doomers do nothing but talk but many actually have taken actions that demonstrate they see the situation seriously. I find the cornucopians to be the ones who are inflexible, except at the mouth, and since words are cheap, that doesn't mean much.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 01:11:04

Doctor's aren't starving, but primary care doctors arent rolling in dough either. After spending 11 years further training after highschool (long hours) a primary care physician will have about 100,000 in debt, zero savings, be renting at age 30 rather than owning a house as their peers do, and have higher risk of suicide and divorce than the average person. They will expect to work more than 60 hours a week, carry a beeper, work some nights and weekends and face endless paperwork and phone calls. In addition to work in the clinic and hospital many get to manage a small business (a clinic) with margins tight enough that going out of business while working 60 hours a week is a distinct possibility. Unlike in the olden-days, today you can bill whatever you want... insurance will decide how much you are paid. Of the dollar you bill 50 cents is collected, of which 25 cents goes to pay overhead. In todays environment you are more likely to be an employee than to own your practice, and more likely to be grouped with nurses and PA's as a "health care provider" rather than revered as a doctor. The pay is higher than the average wage, but so is the screening process, the stress of the training, the duration of the training, the daily workload and responsibility and the risk. If your goal is easy money or unquestioning respect or getting home at a predictable hour primary care is not for you... You will have better luck in technology, law, business or nearly any other field...

Regarding the healthcare dollar, fully 30% goes to administration. The remaining 70% which goes to patient care is divided as below... Physician Services include services provided in the hospital and all clinic visits and the cost of running the clinics...
Image

Administrative costs could have been tackled with the Clinton health plan, which was shot down (a single payer system). Pharmacy costs have never been reigned in and we pay a huge premium compared to the rest of the world for our medications. Tort reform has also been limited, and the legal environment encourages defensive (excessive) testing. And, for lack of a national health system the cost of caring for the uninsured is basically passed back to those with insurance through increased charges.

I think the demographics of the baby boom (and increased social security and madicaid expense) will force a major change in the way healthcare is provided in the US... That is probably a good thing.
Image

The system's wealth (and lack of courage) have kept us from honestly discussing rationing of medications and care... We have taken the high road and acted as though such discussions were not necessary or dignified for a topic as important as healthcare. Scarcity and debt will make hard choices necessary. While it is easy to scale up medical systems I'm guessing it will be much harder to scale down services and expectations. Healthcare is a right, but I'm guessing that the healthcare we can afford to provide in the future will look different than that we are used to seeing today.

PS- The demographic of the aging, underinsured, under-saving, entitled, voting majority Baby Boomers that used to be my reason for concern about the future... PeakOil will not help things at all...
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 01:37:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyZone', 'V')erbally acknowledging that other outcomes are possible is hardly taking them seriously. People acknowledge that we might get an asteroid strike someday but no one actually takes that seriously right now. And by seriously, I mean that no one actually modifies their actual behavior patterns to include consideration of the possible effects of such an event.


People don't prepare for an asteroid strike either because they feel they feel the strike is unlikely or because they feel that preparations would be futile and not really affect the outcome. Either would make the cost of preparation a wasteful effort.The fact that something bad could possibly happen does not oblige you to prepare... You have to pick your battles. Here earthquakes are a 1/5000 year event, so I don't prepare for that. Tornado's happen more often, but I dont feel my danger is great so I choose not to build a storm shelter. Robberies happen infrequently but it is easy to lock the door so I do because the cost of that action is low. To prepare for each would have me living in an earth contact, earthquake proof, burglar alarmed shelter.

Some optimists may (correctly?) believe that a doomer dieoff this decade is unlikely or that, if it does occur preparations would be meaningless. And remember, the cost of preparing for a doomer scenario is not low... There is an emotional cost of accepting a doomer philosophy. Then there is the cost of a homestead, a mule, a shotgun, a well, a generator, a wagon, the loss of a job as you move to the country, then the loss of your wife when she moves back to the city. If the doomer scenario doesn't pan out and things land softly you have paid an un-necessary price. And, in a doomer scenario with reaping mobs, your preparation may also have been meaningless.

So, it is reasonable to not prepare for Doomer Die off if you feel the price is too high (not because the doomer scenario is impossible but because it is either unlikely or because preparation would be unlikely to help you).
Verbal: The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist...
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