[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'N')o actually it probably won't. The poor will suffer in this country, and the rest will be inconvenienced. If you think they're going to stop driving because oil is $5, or $6 per gallon, I beg to differ. Peak Oil is not fallng of a cliff; it is a constant, but relatively moderate, increase in cost over a number of years. Those seeking revolution due to peak oil are probably going to be disappointed. The greatest danger of peak oil is over-reaction by our government, and global conflict resulting from it.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'W')hat are you saying? That we shouldn't bother to balance the energy load, and produce some less poluting vehicles at the same time?

[dhfenton]

Natural gas here (N. America) does not equal natural gas somewhere else. NG is not a good candidate for overseas transportation. Although finished products like fertilizer can ship well. NG usage in another part of the world is not going to significanty change our natural gas situation. Decreased oil usage elsewhere may help some. Also, NG is better environmentally than gas or diesel. No one that I recall ever said that NG usage increases in N. America was a good idea. I do think Honda's production of NG vehicles elsewhere is a positive step. The issue in California is environmental. Honda, like everyone else, is struggling to meet emissions standards for their California sales. This is the way they're doing it, right or wrong. They are not in a position yet to do it with electric vehicles. Increased electric generation and electric vehicles may be a good idea someday; but, I have to wonder about the resources used up producing batteries that only last 3-4 years in an electric car. And with Myers Motors annoucing that they are selling the new Sparrow at $35,000 for a single seat auto, I don't see electric vehicle sales booming any time soon.

[dhfenton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')
If only gas was going to be $5/gallon, we'd not be having this argument. Fact is, many of those that you consider 'inconvenienced' will be much more screwed than you're letting on. Many will be 'inconvenienced' by the implosion of their 401Ks once the discretionary purchases of the hypergrowth economy come to a halt. Many will be 'inconvenienced' by being upside down on two car payments and a ARM mortgage in the exurbs, with no end in sight. Many will be 'inconvenienced' by higher consumer prices in all sectors, with wages failing to keep up with inflation. Many will be 'inconvenienced' by the harsh realities of a post-PO life, period.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'O')nly the US has a natural gas crisis. The rest of us are doing just fine, except on the natural gas climate issue of course.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'O')K, the US and the UK then.

[PrairieMule]

What if a seal wears out and "Phil" fills the garage with Natural Gas? Click your garage door opener to see what happens next.

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey are not in a position yet to do it with electric vehicles. Increased electric generation and electric vehicles may be a good idea someday; but, I have to wonder about the resources used up producing batteries that only last 3-4 years in an electric car.

[Omnitir]

Sorry, don’t have much to add to the discussion about Natural Gas, except that it’s a reasonably widespread fuel source here. For example, all the council busses in Brisbane run on natural gas. And it's so much cheaper then regular unleaded..

I really just wanted to respond to something Toecutter said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')Their lack of reality stems from their outright refusal to abandon the internal combustion engine in favor of an electric motor, UNLESS it has a maintenance-intensive fuel cell. Thing is, fuel cells, even if mass produced, would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars in an automotie application for at least the next decade.

[omo]

Hello friends!

Forgive me if my thoughts are a little lame as I'm new to this whole Peak Oil subject.

I believe I'm seeing some signs of, in my opinion, positive changes here in Europe. I'm not sure what plans our governments have for long term developement, but I tend to think that in general we heading in the right direction and what comes out of it could make our future brighter then some of you predict.

I'm talking nuclear. Here, in Finland, we are building a new nuclear power station. Sweds are pushing for fight against energy crisis. There are serious talks of building nuclear plants in the Baltic states. We already have highly developed and advanced public transport infrastructure here in Scandinavia and in Europe in gerneral and I believe we are going to shift more and more into using electrical power - trams, underground networks, electricity powered trains, heating, etc. Taking into account use of a highly advanced communication technologies I think we have very good chances to go through the peak and post peak periods a lot smoother then some of us might think. My thinking is that the less oil/gas we use the more time we have to udjust our technlogies, economics and politics for the new era. The rest of Europe is watching and will probably follow if the whole thing works as I tend to think it will and our oil consumption drops substantialy in some areas.

Thank you for the oprotunity to express my view.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'W')ithin a year, there is a very good chance that Californians will be able to buy the first mass-produced fuel cell powered vehicle. $6000.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omo', 'I')'m talking nuclear. Here, in Finland, we are building a new nuclear power station.

[Mesuge]

Hey Omo good points
there was a link in another thread that Sweden has OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED a program to get out of fossil by 2020 and basically confirming PO in justification for that! That's make it the first EU country to propose such a dramatic thing.

However, you Scandinavians have several benefits at your hand: low pop, good technology, people educate din recycling&renewables, and most importantely certain edge for community organized way of life..

Unofortunately many of these atributes are quite different or virtually non existant in other EU countries so I'll be a bit sceptical here..

But you might be right overall I've heard that the last satellite images over EU suggests small decline in greenhouse gases, US is plateuing or slight increasing and Asia is a mess..

[Omnitir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'W')ithin a year, there is a very good chance that Californians will be able to buy the first mass-produced fuel cell powered vehicle. $6000.

[Mesuge]

Google great insider article in Forbes on GM and hydrogen cars..
There are ods 10:1 they won't be able to launch it under their promise of affordable cost, comparable ICE milage, and H2tank security..
Haven't you seen Delphi their biggest supplier go bankcrupt lately? GM runs tons of cash which makes everybody happy and underdoomed but their 60s style pension&medical plan liabilities are supergiant even if they manage to transfer it partly on the already underfunded fed. fund.. The boat is sinking..

[omo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'U')ranium supplies are finite. When they are depleted what then? Why does the solution have to imply a future crisis?

[omo]

hey Mesuge, thanks for giving it a thought. I agree with you, there are many possible scenarious. But it is difficult to doubt that very soon we will all be looking into nuclear power very seriously and probably try to replace oil with it in many areas.

[cornholio]

I remember hearing (more than a decade ago) that it was short-sighted to build electricity generators using natural gas, as it put home heating supplies at risk... I wish they would save natural gas for heating : ( .

Re: transportation, from other technology threads there appears to be progress in producing batteries (using nanotechnology) to produce lighter, better charging, more energy dense batteries... For light transportation I'm not sure that hydrogen powered vehicles will remain more attractive than fast charging totally electric vehicles in a couple of decades (for short distances)

There will continue to be energy available to fix hydrogen if needed in comming decades (at higher cost). Even as oil peaks (and later coal), there is time to ramp up nuclear. With the possibility of transitioning from uranium to thorium reactors over the comming decades as uranium becomes expensive/rare there is no reason to believe there will be an inability to form hydrogen liquids (though of course not in the volume or low cost of oil). "Peak Nuclear" is not going to happen in the forseeable future for this reason...

[DigitalCubano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'G')oogle great insider article in Forbes on GM and hydrogen cars..
There are ods 10:1 they won't be able to launch it under their promise of affordable cost, comparable ICE milage, and H2tank security..
Haven't you seen Delphi their biggest supplier go bankcrupt lately? GM runs tons of cash which makes everybody happy and underdoomed but their 60s style pension&medical plan liabilities are supergiant even if they manage to transfer it partly on the already underfunded fed. fund.. The boat is sinking..

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')undreds of thousands of dollars for at least a decade - according to whom exactly?

Within a year, there is a very good chance that Californians will be able to buy the first mass-produced fuel cell powered vehicle. $6000.