[bobcousins]

At last! Now can we give up with the "when is peak oil gonna happen?" polls.

I am not so convinced that when the world wakes up, there will be panic. Most people will continue to deny there is a peak, or that it is even bad. Some will say it is even a good thing. We could have people borrowing money to invest in a new alternative energy bubble.

I expect we will see the same thing as with global warming. It will take decades for it to sink in, a generation even.

[some_guy282]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '
')I am not so convinced that when the world wakes up, there will be panic. Most people will continue to deny there is a peak, or that it is even bad.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') expect we will see the same thing as with global warming. It will take decades for it to sink in, a generation even.

[EnviroEngr]

As a reminder: Ali's site ---> http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/sb.htm

[EnviroEngr]

I know we've got a few Dr. Bakhtiari fans around here so here's some feedback from Ali:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari', ' ')
[With respect to this thread]... very interesting comments
indeed, some of your folk have great sense of humor,
and they are very well informed too !

Specially liked "I can take T1, it's T2...", 'T1' is
going to be mild, but good time to get prepared...

One of your readers was right: I was blocked (visa
refusal) from attending Lisbon ASPO4 conference, the
350 attendants gave me a standing ovation: a very
great honor for a humble fellow like me: first I ever
received in my life...

I would like to thank a couple [posters] for compliments
on my predictions and also my crystal ball (a museum
piece now)...

Take care and keep up the great work at PeakOil.com

Best regards,
Ali

[killJOY]

I know I saw an interview with Matt Simmons that refers to the people he met in Iran as "lovely people." I don't know if he was referring specifically to Mr Bakhtiari, but the compliment seems fitting.

If we go to war with that country...well, it will be a hideous tragedy.

[OilsNotWell]

Thanks for passing along that message, EE.

For those who wish to gather some better insight on his work and philosophy, please see the Experts section:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1749.html (biography)

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1759.html (replies 1,2,3)

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1774.html (replies 4,5,6)

and

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1807.html (replies 7,8,9 and 10)

Incidentally, I knew it was a very special exchange and have remembered it ever since. Thank you, Dr. Bakhtiari.

I find it interesting how S. Arabia hasn't been much over 9.5Mb/d since then, as discussed. Surpised, I am not. Whether that is intentional (hesitant to over-produce or to secretly limit production) or not (actual geologic constraints) 'may be revealed', as the mystic in you might say.

I might also add, as I hinted before, I believe the events in Iran are not what they seem, as I beliieve the roots for the situation go back, oh about 25 years...We too I believe (allegedly) have a behind the scenes group manipulating events and appearances to consolidate power and for self-enrichment.

opps. mispelled your name in the thread title


{fixed; EE}

[M_B_S]

Former Iran Oil chief PEAK OIL&GAS cumulate

AFTER 'PEAK OIL', 'PEAK GAS' TOO
by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari
(March 2006)


The lies our leaders and Big Oil told us for decades are now on the table!


It is our natural right to bring them to justice

[bobbyboy]

Yes Bakhtiari is right on the money here. I've looked at this and came out with peak in 2006-2008. I'll put up a thread at the weekend with all the juicy details.

[Aaron]

Dr. Bakhitari is the guy who correctly predicted when oil would reach $50...

[Eddie_lomax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', '[')url=http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/Peaks/PEAKS.htm]Former Iran Oil chief PEAK OIL&GAS cumulate[/url]

AFTER 'PEAK OIL', 'PEAK GAS' TOO
by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari
(March 2006)


The lies our leaders and Big Oil told us for decades are now on the table!


It is our natural right to bring them to justice

[max_power29]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Add to that Japan
apparently has stopped loans to China, it seems like they are not well liked on that side of the globe.

[Eddie_lomax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Add to that Japan
apparently has stopped loans to China, it seems like they are not well liked on that side of the globe.

[seahorse2]

Another interesting issue about Japan stopping loans to China is its related to the gas issues that they both argue over. Its interesting bc Michael Klare is his book "Blood and Oil" listed this as a potential "flashpoint." Seems this "flashpoint" is heating up, even if it is still under the MSM radar - they might actually cover a missile strike, but by then, its too late.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eddie_lomax', '
')And on a different note, from everything I read here it seems like Russia has no interest in exporting gas to China - everything I see seems to point towards Russians being wary of their rising power.

[grabby]

Did you catch the sentance that said
"I didn't believe it when they claimed 90 BnB?

Does that mean he thinks they are OVERESTIMATING the initial reserves?

Oooo.

[DantesPeak]

Actually Iran did state in 2003 that they were initiating their nuclear power program with the expectation of lower oil production in the future in mind. No they did not discuss 'PO'.

I suspect that in a country where transportation fuel sells for an extremely low price, the implication that Iran's oil supplies in the future wil be diminished is a subject they would rather not frequently discuss.

[AlCzervik]

Mogambo Guru is a humorous libertarian gold bug. He cited some of Bakhtiari's work today.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd speaking of commodities and the impact of rising oil prices, generous reader Laura S. sent me a report by the Commonwealth of Australia, "Reference: Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels." In it, we read of a Dr Samsam Bakhtiari saying, "Crude oil is a commodity unlike any other. It is simultaneously a strategic raw material, a unique industrial feedstock and the most essential of fuels." Perhaps from this you get such curious results. "For example," he writes, "you have no free market in oil. Naturally, you can go to the NYMEX stock exchange and buy as many barrels as you want at the price of $74 now, but these are paper barrels." In short, fractional-reserve oil!

This suddenly reminded me of the glut of fractional-reserve paper silver, and fractional-reserve paper gold, and fractional-reserve paper commodities, and even fractional-reserve paper paper, which makes for a gigantic short position in all kinds of things. I was going to bring these eerie, spooky and ominous parallels up to Dr. Bakhtiari, but he just smoothly went on, saying, "If you try to buy 10,000 barrels a day of real oil, of genuine barrels, you will have enormous problems getting that much oil on a regular and sustainable basis. So that is one of the problems that we will encounter in the medium term."

He goes on to say that all of this "all things being equal" and linear extrapolations aside, "we cannot accept the projections of certain institutions like the International Energy Agency in Paris, which predicts that the world will be consuming 118 million barrels per day in the year 2030 as realistic, because I cannot see how the world can get over 81 or, say, 82 million barrels per day right now, let alone in the future."

Here is where video news footage showed that I jumped to my feet, startling everybody, and shouted, "Hahaha! Exactly right, good doctor! There haven't been any big new discoveries of oil in a decade or more, and yet total oil consumption is going to be able to grow and grow and grow until it is 50% higher in 24 years? Hahahaha! Good luck, world, and good point, doc!"

The audience erupted in anguished cries of, "Shut up, you stupid Mogambo idiot," and angry demands that Dr. Bakhtiari rip me a "new one." But, being the classy guy that he is, he controls his rage, and calmly summarizes as, "So you have an enormous discrepancy between what these institutions publish and what we believe in, whether it is in reserves or whether it is in production of crude oil per day."

And that all assumes at least some growth in oil production, and the good doctor does not agree with even THAT modest assumption. Almost as an afterthought, he ominously says, "I believe we are in decline."

[AlCzervik]

I just wanted to bump this thread because FTW noted in a recent article that Ali Samsam Bakhtiari puts world production at about 55 billion barrels per day by 2020. It's significantly higher than Simmons potential 25 mbd, but still horrible.
http://www.energybulletin.net/18506.html

[nwildmand]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlCzervik', 'I') just wanted to bump this thread because FTW noted in a recent article that Ali Samsam Bakhtiari puts world production at about 55 billion barrels per day by 2020. It's significantly higher than Simmons potential 25 mbd, but still horrible.
http://www.energybulletin.net/18506.html