by zceb90 » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 13:34:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', 'r')e: Nero's $5 gallon gas, and the economics of mass transit tradeoff and home location...
it will be interesting to see how this pans out.
The traditional model used for years by many people has been the tradeoff between a cheaper mortgage and more expensive transportation.
If a home buyer is looking at mortgage savings in the 100's of thousands, transportation costs in the 10's of thousands will always look more attractive.
However, if this is expanded over the period of a decade, the picture shifts dramatically.
Non-suburnanites always tend to look at this picture using a "quality of life" format...and often enough this isn't necessarily an economic factor, but one of time...the amount of time spent per week on the road.
I have always been amazed at the amount of time people around my city will put up with, on the road.
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If peak oil ultimately forces contraction of urban areas, no matter where one lives, distance from home to work is going to be a major factor.
The problem for suburbanites as I see it is that by the time they decide to move nearer to work i.e. when gasoline prices and commuting time outweigh benefits of lower mortgage costs everyone around them will be looking at much the same type of move. As oil depletion advances prices in surburbia will doubtless reflect the exodus; it may well become hard to sell at any reasonable price. Jim Kunstler aptly captures this scenario in 'The Long Emergency' where he predicts that the suburbs with their McMansions and McHouses may well become the slums of tomorrow.
In UK there are also a lot of long commutes but much of this is into London where electric rail is heavily used (due to no small extent to the fact that it's near impossible to find parking in central London even if one were willing to spend hours in queues). Folks are commuting daily to London from as far away as York which is 188 miles (301 km) each way but trains make the trip in just under 2 hrs.
Outwith the London commuter belt we too have 'invested' in suburban type sprawl but to a lesser extent than US. Out of town malls have been balanced with town center shops and scale is more walkable / cycleable. I was in a large supermarket only yesterday but it's located just 3 minutes' walk from town center and the train station thus lots of folks can and do walk to it even now. Supermarkets further out of town provide free buses serving outlying towns and villages once or twice per week - this seems to be a condition of planning consent for out of town retail complexes. These courtesy buses or minibuses allow folks without cars (or who choose not to drive) a couple of hours or so at the store with the retail complexes paying for the buses.
A lot of the pain of high gas prices and long commutes could be mitigated by vehicle sharing and folks in same neighborhood sharing shopping trips; this might be a whole bunch easier than trying to sell into an unwilling market.