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PeakOil is You

THE Commuting Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby zceb90 » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 13:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', 'r')e: Nero's $5 gallon gas, and the economics of mass transit tradeoff and home location...
it will be interesting to see how this pans out.
The traditional model used for years by many people has been the tradeoff between a cheaper mortgage and more expensive transportation.

If a home buyer is looking at mortgage savings in the 100's of thousands, transportation costs in the 10's of thousands will always look more attractive.
However, if this is expanded over the period of a decade, the picture shifts dramatically.
Non-suburnanites always tend to look at this picture using a "quality of life" format...and often enough this isn't necessarily an economic factor, but one of time...the amount of time spent per week on the road.
I have always been amazed at the amount of time people around my city will put up with, on the road.
<snip>
If peak oil ultimately forces contraction of urban areas, no matter where one lives, distance from home to work is going to be a major factor.

The problem for suburbanites as I see it is that by the time they decide to move nearer to work i.e. when gasoline prices and commuting time outweigh benefits of lower mortgage costs everyone around them will be looking at much the same type of move. As oil depletion advances prices in surburbia will doubtless reflect the exodus; it may well become hard to sell at any reasonable price. Jim Kunstler aptly captures this scenario in 'The Long Emergency' where he predicts that the suburbs with their McMansions and McHouses may well become the slums of tomorrow.

In UK there are also a lot of long commutes but much of this is into London where electric rail is heavily used (due to no small extent to the fact that it's near impossible to find parking in central London even if one were willing to spend hours in queues). Folks are commuting daily to London from as far away as York which is 188 miles (301 km) each way but trains make the trip in just under 2 hrs.

Outwith the London commuter belt we too have 'invested' in suburban type sprawl but to a lesser extent than US. Out of town malls have been balanced with town center shops and scale is more walkable / cycleable. I was in a large supermarket only yesterday but it's located just 3 minutes' walk from town center and the train station thus lots of folks can and do walk to it even now. Supermarkets further out of town provide free buses serving outlying towns and villages once or twice per week - this seems to be a condition of planning consent for out of town retail complexes. These courtesy buses or minibuses allow folks without cars (or who choose not to drive) a couple of hours or so at the store with the retail complexes paying for the buses.

A lot of the pain of high gas prices and long commutes could be mitigated by vehicle sharing and folks in same neighborhood sharing shopping trips; this might be a whole bunch easier than trying to sell into an unwilling market.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 11:11:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', '
')I can't remember exactly when SUV's hit the scene. Late 80's?
Did North America sort of go collectively brain-dead in the 90's?


The quintessential SUV: 1991 Ford Explorer. It was all downhill from there. Of course, there were always Suburbans, Broncos & Jeeps, but the Explorer made having an SUV palatable to the suburban soccer mom. Once that occured, there was no turning back. Oil was just too cheap for our own good.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby hull3551 » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 14:14:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', '.')..everyone going for bigger/cheaper...

...So many things increased in size. Supercenters. The mall of America.
If you think about it...the sheer amount of spaces that have to be heated and cooled....


I think this will be an interesting winter with the cost of heating fuel (ie, nat gas and heating oil) going way up - for both business and individual.

I've heard NG might be tripled in some areas this winter versus last year.
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72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 21:08:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.wlns.com/Global/story.asp?S=4008845&nav=0RbQ]According to the Census Bureau, Washington's daytime population swells by 72 percent as commuters stream in. (link)[/url]


Of the commuters
For the commuters
By the commuters.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby Specop_007 » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 21:21:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '"')White flight" is and has always been the defining American cultural paradigm.


Apparently because "Black crime" is a problem.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 21:25:55

Still the townhouses of DC keep going for higher and higher amounts of money.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 21:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pparently because "Black crime" is a problem.


Then there's white crime, often refered to as "commerce."
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby some_guy282 » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 22:09:24

And commuter can of course be interchanged with the word "consumer" as well.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby Gary » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 22:20:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pparently because "Black crime" is a problem.


Then there's white crime, often refered to as "commerce."


Right. "some men rob the passersby for a little cash to spend/some men rob whole countries dry and still get called their friend."

(Bruce Cockburn -- "The Mines of Mozambique" from "The Charity of Night")

This combination is deadly. Our culture seems far too resistant to change to survive peak oil at all intact.

First we have living patterns established based on the real god, cheap energy/petroleum.

Second, we have ready made race wars lurking under the surface in many parts of the country.

Third, we have extreme, violent, judgemental fundamentalist religion providing the apocalyptic metanarrative for the fourth element of the deadly combination, fascism.

Actually, fascism integrates the religous, corporatist, militarist elements of our culture and uses the fear and prejudice as tools for manipulating people.

At any rate, ido you think that the DC communter patterns are enlightening people on the need to chnage, or reinforcing the sense that we are entitled to cheap petroleum to sustaina this pattern for as long as we want to?
pedaling for peace and ecojustice -- Gary
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby falser » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 22:42:28

I'm one of these folks. One of the problems is there's not a lot of highrise apartments in DC due to building restrictions. But right outside the district (Arlington & Alexandria VA, Bethesda, Rockwood & Silver Spring MD) there's tons of them. Metro DC isn't very large at all, but for about a 50mi+ radius is all DC suburbs. It's more expensive to live in DC by a good amount, both in living costs and taxes, so if you live on a subway line there's very little advantage to actually living in DC.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 23:08:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pparently because "Black crime" is a problem.


Then there's white crime, often refered to as "commerce."


Wasn't commerce invented in Africa and the middle east?
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby Specop_007 » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 23:34:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pparently because "Black crime" is a problem.


Then there's white crime, often refered to as "commerce."


Haha, touche. Well done.
:)
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 07:13:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('falser', 'I')t's more expensive to live in DC by a good amount, both in living costs and taxes

Plus you don't get representation.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 10:24:29

I lived in the DC area off and on for 30 years, and not on a whole lot of money. Most of the time I was on the run as developers pushed me this way and that. Although I've lost the exact count, I lived in about 15 different places in all three jurisdictions.

I once lived in Rosslyn, a Virginia noncommunity just across the Key Bridge from Georgetown. In those days, I was one of a mere handful of residents who remained after the office workers vamoosed. Walking around Rosslyn in the evenings or on weekends was like walking in a true postapocalyptic ghost town.

DC itself is, overall, a very dangerous place. I'm lucky to have survived it---had many close calls.

The region is very complex and is quite unlike any other American city. Those who have not actually lived there and yet who have opinions on this matter may not know what they're talking about. And it's been changing so rapidly that even I may no longer know what I'm talking about.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 10:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('falser', 'I')'m one of these folks. One of the problems is there's not a lot of highrise apartments in DC due to building restrictions. But right outside the district (Arlington & Alexandria VA, Bethesda, Rockwood & Silver Spring MD) there's tons of them. Metro DC isn't very large at all, but for about a 50mi+ radius is all DC suburbs. It's more expensive to live in DC by a good amount, both in living costs and taxes, so if you live on a subway line there's very little advantage to actually living in DC.


You must mean Rockville, not Rockwood.

My first apartment was just north of Old Town (on Bashford Lane), in 1978. I paid about $285 a month for a large 1-bedroom right off the bike path, not luxurious but certainly adequate. Can you believe that? Now it's just another jazzed-up condo selling for zillions of worthless dollars.
Last edited by Heineken on Sun 23 Oct 2005, 10:37:26, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby EnemyCombatant » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 10:30:28

Is it really crime that white people fear.

There are a lot of middle class working black neighborhoods in the cities with minimal crime. As a matter of fact, young white liberals are moving into these neighborhoods . And they have no problems with their 'older and poorer' black neighbors.

IMO, whites feels as if they can get more for their money by moving out. And of course a certain percentage just don't want to be near blacks.
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 10:35:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnemyCombatant', 'I')s it really crime that white people fear.

There are a lot of middle class working black neighborhoods in the cities with minimal crime. As a matter of fact, young white liberals are moving into these neighborhoods . And they have no problems with their 'older and poorer' black neighbors.

IMO, whites feels as if they can get more for their money by moving out. And of course a certain percentage just don't want to be near blacks.


I can't share your feelings about "minimal crime," at least where DC is concerned. DC is one endless siren of crime. I can't tell you how many times I read or heard about "white liberals" meeting their untimely end in black neighborhoods. What kept me alive was a good set of street smarts.
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 10:45:04

New upscale DC:

http://www.mcicenter.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MCI_Center
http://tinyurl.com/9k3yw
nearby Chinatown got a big boost
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinatown% ... gton%2C_DC


and the good-old 2.3 million square feet of brand new convention center

http://www.dcconvention.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington ... ion_Center
http://tinyurl.com/9o2n7
(Map is deceiving, L street no longer goes through--center is 3 blocks long.)

Funny thing is the gay leather bar is right there too.
http://tinyurl.com/95rtr
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Re: 72% of Washington, DC Daytime Populus Scrams Every Night

Unread postby falser » Sun 23 Oct 2005, 12:21:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou must mean Rockville, not Rockwood.

My first apartment was just north of Old Town (on Bashford Lane), in 1978. I paid about $285 a month for a large 1-bedroom right off the bike path, not luxurious but certainly adequate. Can you believe that? Now it's just another jazzed-up condo selling for zillions of worthless dollars.


Oops, yes Rockville. Pretty much any large 1 bedroom in the entire DC area goes for $1500 these days. It doesn't even seem to matter how far out on a subway line you are, anything near the subway lines and in predominantly "white" neighborhoods is expensive.

I lived in DC for 2 years, and then the past year in VA. I'd say most of Northwest DC is about as safe/dangerous as any large city. My only personal encounter with crime while living there was my car was broken into twice, never stolen thankfully. I did live through the DC Sniper scare if that counts. I think the cost of living spike over the past years has forced a lot of crime out of the area. The average thug could in no way afford a posh apartment in DC anymore, I guess that's one consequence of high real estate prices. It's really only the ghetto areas of Southwest DC and PG County that account for the bad reputation these days.
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