[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'S')o who the heck is Robert Hirsch?

[BabyPeanut]

The Atlantic Council didn't fund the Hirsch report. How does hosting a copy count as "declaring PO?" The Hirsch does not declare PO is happeing, just how much lead time it would take to escape.

[OilsNotWell]

The Atlantic Council, if I remember correctly is closely tied to the CIA, as in Woolsey, et al, the recent oil gaming, etc.

[dinopello]

I believe Matthew Simmons was or is on the Borad of Directors for ACUS.

[Starvid]

Excellent!

Peak Oil awareness is now being embraced not only by fringe leftists and enviromentalists, but also by proper national security people.

Hirsch's paper is also linked to by one of my favorite pages Defense and National Interest www.d-n-i.net

Robert Hirsch bio (impressive!) http://www.defense-and-society.org/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm

The Atlantic Council is an not for profit organisation that provide "education" on NATO matters to the public.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Council

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'E')xcellent!

Peak Oil awareness is now being embraced not only by fringe leftists and enviromentalists, but also by proper national security people.

Hirsch's paper is also linked to by one of my favorite pages Defense and National Interest www.d-n-i.net

Robert Hirsch bio (impressive!) http://www.defense-and-society.org/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm

The Atlantic Council is an not for profit organisation that provide "education" on NATO matters to the public.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Council

[Starvid]

Huh?

What has that got to do with PO getting broader interest?

[elroy]

Among the sponsors on that link are the US army, navy, airforce etcetera. I dunno what to think of that.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'H')uh?

What has that got to do with PO getting broader interest?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('elroy', 'A')mong the sponsors on that link are the US army, navy, airforce etcetera. I dunno what to think of that.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')nd if we see resource wars (I think Iraq was only partly one) they sure as hell won't be NATO wars. Some of NATO's member states, sure, but not NATO operations.

[Starvid]

Not to go OT, but A-stan certainly wasn't a resource war. Sure, there was some bonus with a pipeline, but the invasion was a pure revenge war for the WTC attacks, unlike Iraq which had nothing at all to do with it.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'N')ot to go OT, but A-stan certainly wasn't a resource war. Sure, there was some bonus with a pipeline, but the invasion was a pure revenge war for the WTC attacks, unlike Iraq which had nothing at all to do with it.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=2696&MONTH_YEAR=Oct-2005]Shaping the peak of world oil production (link)[/url]
WorldOil.com Vol. 226 No. 10
October 2005

The bell curve has a sharp crest, and you can't see it coming.
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC

To gain insight into the potential time-varying shape of world oil production peaking, this author examined regions that have already peaked. Unencumbered regions and countries were considered. All had significant peak production and all are past their peak. Their experience shows that the onset of peaking can occur quite suddenly and is not obvious, even a year prior to the event. The peaking of world conventional oil production may or may not follow previous trends, but these observations may be valuable for planning.

[Leanan]

Interesting. He argues that the peak, when it comes, will be sharp and unexpected, and technology and "drilling harder" won't help.

Not sure that his analysis of small areas will apply to the world peak, though...

[thorn]

Take a look at the UK curve, it dropped like a rock.

[Leanan]

I think that steep decline is typical of underwater oil fields such as the North Sea.

Several oil industry insiders hang out at The Oil Drum, and they said because costs are extremely high for deepwater, it's in the company's interest to pump out the oil as fast as possible. So they do, which produces a high, sharp peak, followed by a steep decline.

[Egon_1]

Leanan,

Given market conditions (high demand, high prices, etc.), don't you think that oil will be produced as fast as possible everywhere?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')iven market conditions (high demand, high prices, etc.), don't you think that oil will be produced as fast as possible everywhere?

[Free]

Why should you increase your production cost per barrel if the price you sell it for stays the same? (Or even goes down if you produce more...) Companies look at profit, not to satisfy a demand.

As far as I understand Leanans info it means that it equates less cost per barrel if you extract deepwater as fast as possible - but that doesn't mean it is like that for all kind of fields?

(Edit: Damn beaten 3 minutes...)