by cube » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 21:11:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Markos101', '.').........
We will see a crash here very soon. Meanwhile, I think there will be many opportunities at the bottom of the crash. I'm looking out for it.
Mark
And when it happens, it will make the South Sea Bubble look like a pleasant walk in the park. I will have no sympathy for the speculators who get dragged into the black hole. I was reading about the Asia crises of 1997 and in a weird way there are similarities. One example is the super easy credit supply.
The difference is that Asian governments were giving cheap credit to (zombie businesses - businesses that do not produce profits), while in America cheap credit is given to people who have no business buying a house to begin with (subprime borrowers - people with a really bad credit history). In both cases, the government "backed the loans", meaning if the borrower defaults the government would bail out the bank. Of course with the backing of the gov. banks started giving out loans to anyone under the sun.
Korea is a good example of what went wrong during the Asia crises. Just like in America, Korean consumers accumulated massive amounts of debt. While the loan guarantees were for (businesses, not individuals) during it's pinnacle, Korea's GDP was increasing double digits. With all that money from loans being poured in, business was growing by leaps and bounds. It's pretty easy to feel confident about the future when you have double digit GDP growth every year, so consumers maxed out their credit.
When the super easy credit supply got yanked 4million south Koreans defaulted on their credit card bills. Hate to stereotype, but it's true Asians really are fiscally conservative....compared to Americans.
When the super easy credit supply gets yanked in America I wonder how many Americans will default on their loans?
