[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')At least $5 trillion in investment will be needed in the next three decades to tap reserves, the IEA said, repeating a figure it has already used. The IEA has never before directly responded to ``peak oil'' theorists who say the agency is overly optimistic about estimates of increased production.

[bobcousins]

It despairs me to read another report that is so terminally stupid, I wonder if the authors even went to school.

The shocking truth is that it does not matter how much oil is in place. Really it doesn't! What matters is how much it costs to extract that oil. Producing oil from shale is not going to cost much less than $40/bl. If it did, then it would already be being exploited. This is such a simple principle of economics it makes me doubt the authors education. Some of that OIP will cost $100/bl to produce, some will cost $200/bl - but none will cost $20/bl. As Boone Pickens simply puts it - we have run out of $20 oil, next we will run out of $40, and so on.

The same applies to other energy sources, e.g. nuclear. Some people seem to think we will enter a new golden age when we shake off smelly fossil fuels and embrace nuclear. We won't, because nuclear will never give us the equivalent of $20/barrel oil.

The point people seem to fail to grasp is that there is declining curve, and we can't go back up it.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'H')ere's a question though that I'd like to have answered. I'm sure it's out there. Can anyone provide me with a paper or study that looks at the entire globe, looks at the geology of where oil should be, where it has been found, in what quantities, what qualities, how much exploration was performed to find that oil, etc etc etc

What are you guys using to draw your conclusions. What data source? Kusntler doesn't talk about this. Heinberg doesn't. Campbell barely does. Just a few words.

Where's the analysis? Or do you just believe what you want to believe?

[Ming]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e spoke at the aspo is lisbon 2005.

[KevO]

The IEA are correct.
If you 'believe' in peak oil then reading this article at the link below can only bring you to accept (as in - end of denial) that peak oil is indeed never going to happen.
Sorry all, but it's pretty obvious if you de Ostrich for a moment

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=22803

[Jake_old]

Help me out here KevO

Are you joking?

If not could you outline the relevant arguments before I delve into that lengthy article?

[Ebyss]

Good article KevO. Scary, but good. Outline for those who don't want to read it : BirdFlu will wipe out most of the population before Peak Oil can have any effect. I think this is the "die-off" Monte was talking about. Mother nature is really pissed at us.

[Starvid]

I don't understand their arguments, if they even have any.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no shortage of oil and gas in the ground, but quenching the world's thirst for them will call for major investment in modern technologies'

[Jake_old]

Just 'cause i respect you KevO and Ebyss, just for the record, last time i got into lengthy articles posted by a PO.com member i got into reading about exploding planets and the end of humanity due to planet x.

No disrespect to you, I will probably read it now, but i doubt it will debunk anything about peak oil.

Even if bird flu did do the wipe out, PO would happen at some point anyway.

cheers

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedJake', 'J')ust 'cause i respect you KevO and Ebyss, just for the record, last time i got into lengthy articles posted by a PO.com member i got into reading about exploding planets and the end of humanity due to planet x.

No disrespect to you, I will probably read it now, but i doubt it will debunk anything about peak oil.

Even if bird flu did do the wipe out, PO would happen at some point anyway.

cheers

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no shortage of oil and gas in the ground, but quenching the world's thirst for them will call for major investment in modern technologies'

[nth]

IEA says 16 trillion dollars are needed to keep oil supplies meeting demands.
If this is true, how much does the oil need to sell for to make a profit?
If it costs 16 trillion dollars, then the oil produced must sell for over 32 trillion dollars. Right now, we spend under 1.5 trillion dollars on oil.
Remember this is in today's dollar.
Since increase oil price means higher inflation, then the price of oil will rise a lot if you adjust the today's dollar to 2030 dollars!

Oil is going to get very expensive.

Is my reasoning flaw?

[ChumpusRex]

If oil stays above $50/bbl then it's likely that there will be more than enough spare cash to invest 16 trillion over 30 years.

Present consumption is about 35 Gbbl / y. At $50/bbl that's worth $1.8 trillion per year. Over 30 years that's $54 trillion in revenue.

Oil doesn't need to get more expensive in order to fund this level of development - it just can't drop severely in price.

[ubercynicmeister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'I')EA says 16 trillion dollars are needed to keep oil supplies meeting demands.
If this is true, how much does the oil need to sell for to make a profit?
If it costs 16 trillion dollars, then the oil produced must sell for over 32 trillion dollars. Right now, we spend under 1.5 trillion dollars on oil.
Remember this is in today's dollar.
Since increase oil price means higher inflation, then the price of oil will rise a lot if you adjust the today's dollar to 2030 dollars!

Oil is going to get very expensive.

Is my reasoning flaw?

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChumpusRex', 'I')f oil stays above $50/bbl then it's likely that there will be more than enough spare cash to invest 16 trillion over 30 years.

Present consumption is about 35 Gbbl / y. At $50/bbl that's worth $1.8 trillion per year. Over 30 years that's $54 trillion in revenue.

Oil doesn't need to get more expensive in order to fund this level of development - it just can't drop severely in price.

[RobintheDruid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ah, it's not a "debunk" article at all. It doesn't even mention PO. It's just an transcript from a lecture by an Epidemiologist talking about Avian Flu. And it certainly doesn't mean PO won't happen, it doesn't say that (neither did KevO, although that's what I thought he meant, since I couldn't see any other reason for posting the article )

[Jake_old]

I understand the point now Robin

I heard it had already arrived in siberia (I know thats not western).

It would be better to happen before the peak I think, still have industrial healthcare and stuff.

Although post peak I suppose it could be contained due to the reduction in international travel.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RobintheDruid', '
')
What KevO is saying is that if (or once) Avian flu mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, it will spread so rapidly and be so deadly (approx 70% mortality rate) that there won't be a capitalist, industrialised society left for peak oil to affect.

[Starvid]

I think avian influenza is hyped. How many will die? 10 million at worst. 10 million is nothing to a world of 6000 million. The Spanish flu after WW1 killed 20 million, and most people have never even heard of it.

To get a global collapse we would something like the Black Death, which killed a two digit percentage of global population, and maybe 1/3 of all Europeans. Then we're talking.

[Jake_old]

Ok but what makes you so sure that H5N1 will cause a 70% die off.

I will concede that it is possible, but why do you feel so certain?

PO is something to be certain about (I mean the fact not the timing).

From what I've gathered so far Bird Flu is something which (only) could cause a pandemic. I heard one doctor on Radio 4 saying the world experiences a pandemic of some sort every 40 - 50 years.

when the strain mutates to human to human it could change in other ways, including severity.