$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')You can see evidence of all the economic crashes US went through and see how foreign trade decline prior to the crashes.
PeakOil is You
THE US Economy (merged)
by marko » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 17:32:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', 'D')oes anyone have the current figures for service vs manufacturing in this country? In the 80's, I remember reading the Economist magazine and it said the U.S. at that time was 70% service, 30% manufacturing.
The figures for 2004, according to the CIA World Factbook, are 79.4% services, 19.7% industry, and 0.9% agriculture. This is as a percentage of GDP. Note that because GDP has grown substantially sincethe 1980s, the manufacturing, or industrial, sector has actually grown since then. It has done so even as manufacturing employment has dropped due to the installation of labor saving equipment (i.e. increased productivity). While the manufacturing sector has grown, obviously it has not grown as fast as the service sector.
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marko - Coal
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by marko » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 17:46:48
On the topic of the forum, whether an economic slowdown has started, I think that it is too early to say. I am watching this closely and have seen a few signs of a possible slowdown, but they are very tentative and could easily turn around.
There will be a slowdown, followed, most likely, by an accelerating crash toward something like the 1930s, but it is not clear when this will happen. My best guess is that we may see initial signs next year but that the big central banks will take concerted action to postpone the full crash. Depending on how successful they are, I think that the crash is likely to happen sometime between late next year and 2009. It will happen when the housing and debt bubbles begin to deflate, leading to a recession and layoffs, leading to defaults on mortgages and other consumer debt, leading to bank failures and more layoffs, leading to more defaults....
What many of you have commented on is the decline in real wages. This is a phenomenon that has been going on since the 70s, with the exception of a brief period in the late 90s when real wages rose slightly for the first time in 20 years or so. They have been dropping again since then.
The decline in real wages is different from an economic slowdown. The economy can continue to grow as median wages drop. Falling real wages tend to increase profits. We have been seeing record profits in the past couple of years. So, while income from labor has been dropping, income from capital ("investments") and executive compensation have been soaring. Also, low interest rates have encouraged people to borrow in order to spend more even though their income is dropping. Much of this borrowing has fueled the housing sector, and jobs connected to housing (real estate, construction, contracting, appliances) have done well lately. These two forces (debt and investment income) have kept the economy expanding even though most people (who have to work for a living) are earning less.
There will be a slowdown, followed, most likely, by an accelerating crash toward something like the 1930s, but it is not clear when this will happen. My best guess is that we may see initial signs next year but that the big central banks will take concerted action to postpone the full crash. Depending on how successful they are, I think that the crash is likely to happen sometime between late next year and 2009. It will happen when the housing and debt bubbles begin to deflate, leading to a recession and layoffs, leading to defaults on mortgages and other consumer debt, leading to bank failures and more layoffs, leading to more defaults....
What many of you have commented on is the decline in real wages. This is a phenomenon that has been going on since the 70s, with the exception of a brief period in the late 90s when real wages rose slightly for the first time in 20 years or so. They have been dropping again since then.
The decline in real wages is different from an economic slowdown. The economy can continue to grow as median wages drop. Falling real wages tend to increase profits. We have been seeing record profits in the past couple of years. So, while income from labor has been dropping, income from capital ("investments") and executive compensation have been soaring. Also, low interest rates have encouraged people to borrow in order to spend more even though their income is dropping. Much of this borrowing has fueled the housing sector, and jobs connected to housing (real estate, construction, contracting, appliances) have done well lately. These two forces (debt and investment income) have kept the economy expanding even though most people (who have to work for a living) are earning less.
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marko - Coal
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by jimmydean » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 18:54:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')Oh, hell no, the "middle class" you are referring to has yet to acquire wonderful things such as labor protections and environmental regulations, and as soon as those things come down the pike, then *BOOM*, offshore to country X, where no such conditions exist.
Your anger towards the "wealth transfer" would perhaps be better focused on the corporations causing it, and the governments that condone this behavior. You can't blame people for working there.
The strange aspect of 'globalization' is that, like 'democracy', it can't be foisted upon an unsuspecting country without great ramifications for the future. The capital markets of developing nations must be at least partially developed from within, in order to secure a nation's economic future. Foreign capital that can be invested at will (in, say, India), can be easily removed at will, as well.
')Oh, hell no, the "middle class" you are referring to has yet to acquire wonderful things such as labor protections and environmental regulations, and as soon as those things come down the pike, then *BOOM*, offshore to country X, where no such conditions exist.
Your anger towards the "wealth transfer" would perhaps be better focused on the corporations causing it, and the governments that condone this behavior. You can't blame people for working there.
The strange aspect of 'globalization' is that, like 'democracy', it can't be foisted upon an unsuspecting country without great ramifications for the future. The capital markets of developing nations must be at least partially developed from within, in order to secure a nation's economic future. Foreign capital that can be invested at will (in, say, India), can be easily removed at will, as well.
I like to think of many "democratic" nations as pseudo-democracies since they are controlled by U.S. interest and dependance on U.S. dollars for exports or expats sending money back. Just look at El Salvador where a pro U.S. government will be very unlike to implement any form of labour protections anytime soon
I'm not for government prevention of outsourcing BUT if this outsourcing binge continues as each business owner/corporation rushes to maximize current FY or next FY profits I just wonder who is going to be left to buy those goods here in the west? Perhaps it's a moot point as the emerging middle class from China + India can more than make up the slack perhaps with cheaper shipping costs to boot
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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MagnoliaFan', '�')��Free Markets” = “Globalism” = “Multiculturalism” = Socialism = Third World Hellhole = One World Government
No way, this is capitalism at its finest. I cannot believe that you'd equate socialism with what's going on all over the world. Clearly, globalization is not an altruistic movement by the "enlightened" to spread equal prosperity across the globe, but, rather, corporations finding the cheapest possible labor pools in order to maximize profits. And, isn't that what capitalism is all about?
Yes your correct Emmerson. The only problem is that the result for the west will be unemployment and wage deflation. It's quite obvious the east is a much more efficient capitalist engine.
Somehow I don't think the west will handle it's standard of living going down too well and with all the guns in the U.S. it could be the wild west part 2
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