by theluckycountry » Fri 11 Apr 2025, 19:42:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy the large gold holdings and why the rapid additions to gold reserves if gold is not a monetary asset? The question answers itself. Gold is a monetary asset. Central bank net buying is equivalent to about 20% of annual gold mining output. That does not indicate a gold shortage, but it does put a firm floor under the dollar price of gold.
That creates what we call an asymmetric trade. On the upside, the sky’s the limit, but on the downside, the central banks have your back to some extent because they will definitely buy the dips to increase their gold hoards. That’s the best type of trade to be in. So, the stage is set. The simple maths of easier percentage gains for constant dollar gains is the dynamic that can set off a buying frenzy and lead to super-spikes in the dollar price of gold.
Central bank buying causes a relentless increase in the dollar price of gold and offers limited downside because they will buy the dips. All that is needed to set off the super-spike is an unexpected development that is not already priced in.
https://investorsdaily.co.uk/gold-commo ... old-trade/CB buying is just one driver of the Gold price. A ton is worth $100 million, ten tons a Billion dollars. How many billionaires are there in the world? 3000 according to Forbes. If each one decided to hedge their investments and chipped in just 100 million that's 3000 tons of gold, nearly Twice what the central banks globally have added since 2008. Of course that's assuming they could actually get their hands on the Gold. Impossible over a short time frame, there simply isn't that much on the market for sale. Worldwide gold production in 2024 was 3,300 metric ton, so they'd swallow a full years' production
Then of course you have the millions of small buyers in India and China and to a lesser degree the Western nations. Then all the jewellery demand! All the industrial demand! For the longest time short focused investors in the West have bought paper/digital gold, options, contracts, and typically got burnt. It's one reason I'm convinced the powers that be were happy to see crypto come along. With a market cap of nearly
3 Trillion it's taken a lot of pressure off the Gold market. 30,000 tons worth actually.
You see there is only 12 Trillion dollars worth of Gold (on the planet) at present prices. So letting a generation of coinheads sink their hard earned money into digital number strings took a lot of pressure of "Real Assets". Assets that actually had to deliver more than promises. Imagine if those millennials had have decided the best way to avoid the depreciating paper currency was to buy Real assets like Gold and Silver, the price today would be double! But no, they are lazy, lazy, stupid, gullible, and totally addicted to their mobile phones. Crypto was the perfect setup for them. A veneer of respectability, a White paper, great promises of future gains, and all accomplished sitting on their lazy arses playing on the mobile phone. They though they were starting a revolution but in fact they were playing into the hands of the very people they despised. Wall Street types and those entrepreneur types that love to make billions by fleecing the little people.
Of course we can see that as a fact in 99% of all the crypto ever created. Only the first one, BTC has sort of lived up to the promises. It's a special case, it's Tesla, the stock people bought out of pure faith, ignoring the practical realities of manufacturing and markets. The World is flocking to Gold now but obviously not to BTC. The people obviously don't trust it to deliver anymore, the "Safe haven in troubled times" meme has proved false but the current bag Hodlers are still hodling because what else can they do? They are trapped by their own psychology, and probably by the specter of capital gains taxes as well because you can't sell crypto without going through the banking system and the Government is all over that!
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.