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PeakOil is You

THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged) Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 11 Apr 2025, 18:32:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Platinum

This morning, having a coffee on the balcony where I watched the sun rise over the mountains...


So...you left Australia? Move to Nepal or someplace with mountains? I mean, upon leaving the house I'm having a brunch at altitude beyond what Aussie flatlanders can breath at.


You have a little lowset house don't you, no wonder you have to go outside to eat with a view. You should have worked smarter, you'd have a double story brick with balconies. No need to be down with the flies and other vermin.

Image

It's true we don't have massive 6000m high mountains, but that's a good thing! I can ride through our mountains all Winter long and never have to worry about ice or snow. Purlingbrook falls on the Mcpherson range, a short ride for me and a favorite.

It's different down on the Alpine Way in the snowies of course, probably why many southerners move to Queensland. I've been there, snow is boring after a while, just a chore. I couldn't imagine living with it for months on end.

Image

No you can keep your snow, and you can keep these as well

Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Baca pleaded guilty March 21 to one count of conspiracy to commit murder and one count of violating the Colorado Organized Crime Control Act.

...Both men commanded "brutal criminal organization(s) that terrorized neighborhoods" on Denver's west side, as Denver District Attorney John Walsh stated in separate press releases...


I've never visited gang-infested third world nations and have no intention to. Sure there are "safe" pockets, but why live in a place where half the streets are no-go zones. It will only get worse of course. One day it will be like East LA. It's hard for decent people to understand how you can live that way, we just shake our heads and feel pity.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 11 Apr 2025, 19:42:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy the large gold holdings and why the rapid additions to gold reserves if gold is not a monetary asset? The question answers itself. Gold is a monetary asset. Central bank net buying is equivalent to about 20% of annual gold mining output. That does not indicate a gold shortage, but it does put a firm floor under the dollar price of gold.

That creates what we call an asymmetric trade. On the upside, the sky’s the limit, but on the downside, the central banks have your back to some extent because they will definitely buy the dips to increase their gold hoards. That’s the best type of trade to be in. So, the stage is set. The simple maths of easier percentage gains for constant dollar gains is the dynamic that can set off a buying frenzy and lead to super-spikes in the dollar price of gold.

Central bank buying causes a relentless increase in the dollar price of gold and offers limited downside because they will buy the dips. All that is needed to set off the super-spike is an unexpected development that is not already priced in.
https://investorsdaily.co.uk/gold-commo ... old-trade/

CB buying is just one driver of the Gold price. A ton is worth $100 million, ten tons a Billion dollars. How many billionaires are there in the world? 3000 according to Forbes. If each one decided to hedge their investments and chipped in just 100 million that's 3000 tons of gold, nearly Twice what the central banks globally have added since 2008. Of course that's assuming they could actually get their hands on the Gold. Impossible over a short time frame, there simply isn't that much on the market for sale. Worldwide gold production in 2024 was 3,300 metric ton, so they'd swallow a full years' production :roll:

Then of course you have the millions of small buyers in India and China and to a lesser degree the Western nations. Then all the jewellery demand! All the industrial demand! For the longest time short focused investors in the West have bought paper/digital gold, options, contracts, and typically got burnt. It's one reason I'm convinced the powers that be were happy to see crypto come along. With a market cap of nearly 3 Trillion it's taken a lot of pressure off the Gold market. 30,000 tons worth actually.

You see there is only 12 Trillion dollars worth of Gold (on the planet) at present prices. So letting a generation of coinheads sink their hard earned money into digital number strings took a lot of pressure of "Real Assets". Assets that actually had to deliver more than promises. Imagine if those millennials had have decided the best way to avoid the depreciating paper currency was to buy Real assets like Gold and Silver, the price today would be double! But no, they are lazy, lazy, stupid, gullible, and totally addicted to their mobile phones. Crypto was the perfect setup for them. A veneer of respectability, a White paper, great promises of future gains, and all accomplished sitting on their lazy arses playing on the mobile phone. They though they were starting a revolution but in fact they were playing into the hands of the very people they despised. Wall Street types and those entrepreneur types that love to make billions by fleecing the little people.

Of course we can see that as a fact in 99% of all the crypto ever created. Only the first one, BTC has sort of lived up to the promises. It's a special case, it's Tesla, the stock people bought out of pure faith, ignoring the practical realities of manufacturing and markets. The World is flocking to Gold now but obviously not to BTC. The people obviously don't trust it to deliver anymore, the "Safe haven in troubled times" meme has proved false but the current bag Hodlers are still hodling because what else can they do? They are trapped by their own psychology, and probably by the specter of capital gains taxes as well because you can't sell crypto without going through the banking system and the Government is all over that!
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 12 Apr 2025, 19:13:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')You have a little lowset house don't you, no wonder you have to go outside to eat with a view.


Not quite sure what "lowset" is, it is a 2-story, and located at about 1700m above sea level. Your "mountains? <yawn> 2200m. Old flatlanders, like maybe you and my mother in law, can barely breath at this altitude. From my bedroom window I can see the mountains that Australia doesn't have. I can eat lunch and legally gamble in casinos at elevations above the highest peak in Australia, and snaking mountain roads going twice as high as that where Aussies can't get without an airplane. Of course, they'd have to learn how to design one first, and then build it, and then hope it doesn't fall apart, as their engineers can't even build Ferris Wheels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')
You should have worked smarter, you'd have a double story brick with balconies.

I do have a double story, and sure it's got a balcony in the master bedroom, you can see it through the windows that look out on those mountains that if you went up them you'd probably pass out. Silly flatlander.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckyountry', '
') It's true we don't have massive 6000m high mountains, but that's a good thing! I can ride through our mountains all Winter long and never have to worry about ice or snow. Purlingbrook falls on the Mcpherson range, a short ride for me and a favorite.


And I have 3 racetracks open to the public locally, open on any nice day in the winter, my favorite about 15 miles away, new build to replace my old favorite when suburbia overran its land, another one 100 miles away to the south, and the 3rd about 120 miles south and east. Lost a friend on that one, great guy.

Enjoy your slow street rides with the other squids. And don't forget the squid motto..."there is no replacement for displacement when trying to pretend you know how to ride on the street".
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 12 Apr 2025, 19:15:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')I've never visited gang-infested third world nations and have no intention to.


Yes, we know that neoNazis are cowards. What's your point?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 13 Apr 2025, 14:58:39

Ahhh, trusty old adam, trusty like an old dog nearing death. When people talk of crypto be owns a lot of crypto, when people discuss gold he owns a lot of gold, he owns everything, yet he drives used Nissan Leafs that can't leave the city limits without running flat :lol:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 18 Apr 2025, 18:24:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')hhh, trusty old adam, trusty like an old dog nearing death.

Well, I sure ain't a spring chicken, which just means I don't suffer fools lightly. Retarded neonazis hardly at all.

But I have to laugh at the morons who bought gold at $1600/oz and thought it was a great deal. Talk about being $1300/oz behind the curve.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ') When people talk of crypto be owns a lot of crypto....

Moron with a bad memory, I own no crypto. Ask Careinke, we've discussed it and because no one could explain how a person would buy my Honda ST off me with it, I've been leery as to its general use. Don't touch the stuff.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')...when people discuss gold he owns a lot of gold....


Don't know how much someone who probably can't count to 10 considers "alot" but I sure wasn't so stupid as to buy mine at $1600/oz like an addled child who thinks candy at $40/oz is a good deal.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')...he owns everything....


So...you are an UNMARRIED moron. Figures. Otherwise you would know that the wife owns everything....I am just stuck buying it for her.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')... yet he drives used Nissan Leafs that can't leave the city limits without running flat :lol:

I just bought a new one. Morons aren't much for memory. I'll bet you forgot how cheap I got it for as well? :lol:

I just sold the old one. A decade old it was, a nice older couple not descended from prisoners decided they too wanted a nice around town car, to charge from their already installed solar panels. I drove it most certainly outside of 2 city limits and into a third Monday. Charged it there for an hour so when the new owners showed up they could get it home. So I can call you a moron later when you forget, I FILLED IT UP AT A LOCAL EV STATION FOR FREE!!!!

They weren't neoNazis, but thrify minded folks with a place in the hills looking for the same quiet, inexpensive efficiency that I have enjoyed for five years. This is expected of course, we don't have the DNA around here that your island does.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 20 Apr 2025, 19:20:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat was once dismissed as contrarian commentary by many is now being echoed by mainstream media across the world: the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency is no longer unquestioned... In just the past year, the U.S. dollar has lost over 35% of its purchasing power against gold, driven by record central bank gold buying. This isn’t a trend, it’s a signal.

The Treasury Market’s Safe Haven Status is Eroding and Gold is the Refuge

For decades, U.S. Treasuries have functioned as the cornerstone of global finance, seen by investors and institutions as the ultimate safe haven. That narrative is now fraying. “There is a liquidity crisis,” Piepenburg told me. “There’s simply not enough grease to keep this system going.” Rather than providing stability during periods of volatility, U.S. government bonds have started to behave more like risk assets. In recent market turmoil, yields rose when they typically would have declined, highlighting the growing fragility of the system.

The Rise of BRICS and the Global Move Away from the Dollar

The de-dollarization trend, long discussed in policy circles, has become an observable reality in the wake of U.S. sanctions against Russia. What began as an assertion of geopolitical power has accelerated a multipolar financial realignment. “Since the weaponization of the U.S. dollar in 2022, 45 countries are now trading outside of it,” Piepenburg told me. “Thirty countries have repatriated their physical gold. That’s not a coincidence, it’s a reaction.”

He pointed to the critical shift that occurred when the U.S. froze Russian central bank assets. For many governments, that action shattered the illusion of the dollar as a neutral global reserve. “When you weaponize the world reserve currency,” he said, “you undermine the very trust it depends on.” Nowhere is this shift more evident than among the BRICS nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

While rumors of a BRICS currency circulate around the world, Piepenburg clarified the group’s actual intention: “They don’t trust each other’s fiat currencies either but they trust gold.”
https://www.goldtelegraph.com/2025/04/1 ... g-to-gold/

Once upon a time, long long ago, everyone was their own bank. They held specie, gold and silver currency, in their own hands. They didn't trust banks because they knew they could fail and steal their hard earned money. For nearly 100 years that concept has slowly been eroded from the thinking of the average citizen. Now they trust banks, keep all their currency there, and trust the government to backstop them if there is a problem. But what they gave up in the process was the inflation proof nature of specie, their digital accounts lose value year by year but not Gold and silver, it just goes up with inflation, offsetting it. Coins I bought in 2004 @ $650 are now worth $5000 and the houses that were worth $250k are now north of $850k. Food, new cars, home repairs, cream donuts, all have gone way up over those two decades but Gold bought and held has kept pace with the rises. Who would have thought?


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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 20 Apr 2025, 20:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ') Coins I bought in 2004 @ $650 are now worth $5000


OMG you were THAT stupid to wait until coins were $650/oz? DId you learn your investing skills from someone with less education than you, like a 5th grader or something?

Neophyte gold people...dont't know the value long term market tracking fund anymore than they do what a diploma from high school looks like.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 06:34:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'C')oins I bought in 2004 @ $650 are now worth $5000

OMG you were THAT stupid to wait until coins were $650/oz? DId you learn your investing skills from someone with less education than you, like a 5th grader or something?


Maybe some were in Kindergarten when gold was $600 an ounce, not a real high point in life for investing. Still a good call. Though gold has never been S5k.

Equities are easier to turn into spendable cash though. Or I suppose gold ETFs. And taxes are less of a pain to figure out.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 09:12:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')
Maybe some were in Kindergarten when gold was $600 an ounce, not a real high point in life for investing. Still a good call. Though gold has never been S5k.


Dear oh dear, the American outlook, it can't see beyond Hawaii :roll:
You are both wrong.

Image

$650 was near the lowest it ever got in AUSTRALIA. $550 was the lowest I believe, that after the 1970's abandonment of the Gold standard of course. And before you point out that the prices down here are too high, remember exchange rates, and remember that our wages are a lot higher than in the US. It's all relative.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 09:27:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'C')oins I bought in 2004 @ $650 are now worth $5000

OMG you were THAT stupid to wait until coins were $650/oz? DId you learn your investing skills from someone with less education than you, like a 5th grader or something?


So whose stupid now adam.
But of course having been a buyer for decades I have always paid more than that initial investment, my last purchase was @ $3200/oz from memory? It's just more proof that you aren't in gold, otherwise you'd have twigged to that. You're loser adam, you just can't see it yet. But you will when the paper markets collapse and take you retirement saving with them. You can feel it can't you? The hate is welling up inside you now.


Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 14:02:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'C')oins I bought in 2004 @ $650 are now worth $5000

OMG you were THAT stupid to wait until coins were $650/oz? DId you learn your investing skills from someone with less education than you, like a 5th grader or something?


Maybe some were in Kindergarten when gold was $600 an ounce, not a real high point in life for investing.


Quite true. And some, even as adults, have a kindergarden mind (like Lucky). But yes, as they say, timing is everything. I wasn't in kindergarden in the early 80's, gold wasn't cheap in the moment but someone was motivated to get out of their physicals, and of course the world was ending back then as well, stagflation, global peak oil in 1979, and us oilfield folks were having a field day with the skyrocketing oil prices to $30/bbl.

So instead I collected some. Big deal. Market tracking funds put into 401k's when they came out have done far better. But Lucky likes to pretend that his decision at $1600/oz was a genius move...for a kindergarden mind anyway. I just like to point out that what he thinks hasn't once been substantiated by data, facts, his understanding of anything (parrots parrot, they do not think), etc etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('agrentR11', '
')Still a good call. Though gold has never been S5k.

Hell, I wouldn't even know how to SELL mine. Who would I take it to to turn it into cash for market investments?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('agentR11', '
')Equities are easier to turn into spendable cash though. Or I suppose gold ETFs. And taxes are less of a pain to figure out.

My tracking funds are easy, it is a phone call. But physical gold? I was just going to leave it to the kids, with halfwits like Lucky thinking it is the end all be all, they'll keep the price high and the kids can figure out what to do with it.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 14:05:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Dear oh dear, the American outlook, it can't see beyond Hawaii :roll:
You are both wrong.
$650 was near the lowest it ever got in AUSTRALIA.


Agent and I aren't from some backwoods Third World country where people like you live. So no, we aren't wrong. We just don't have the perspective of being uneducated, ignorant in general or a parrot. In the First World, we've been at this for alot longer than your criminal family tree, let alone existence as a toadie to the King.

Expand your perspective. Start with going back to high school and learning some basic history.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 14:15:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')So whose stupid now adam.

How about we ask CSIRO and see what they say? :o

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')But of course having been a buyer for decades I have always paid more than that initial investment, my last purchase was @ $3200/oz from memory?


Yes, I believe we've already discussed how stupid you are, paying so much for gold when you could have gotten it so much cheaper if you knew anything about investing.

Sorry that it wasn't even cheap in your Third World island, but hey, not everyone can be born in the land of exceptional,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
') It's just more proof that you aren't in gold, otherwise you'd have twigged to that.

NOt sure what the slang means. I am not "in gold", I own it. I invested in it once when I had some cash around and was flush, and perhaps someone who hasn't been in the oil business since the late 70's like you doesn't realize, is that when global peak oil hit in 1979, gold was a hot commodity, and I was flush from the high oil prices, and hadn't gotten into the 401k game then. Not even sure it was around then.

So I bought some gold. Big deal.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
') You're loser adam, you just can't see it yet. But you will when the paper markets collapse and take you retirement saving with them. You can feel it can't you? The hate is welling up inside you now.


Well, first I'd have to define what "winning" is with a cretin, before I can talk about losing. You've never spoken of children (thank god lets hope your pollution of the gene pool ends with you) but I've got two. Both advanced multiple degrees, out on their own, paying their way, not buying gold, what for? They can borrow some from dad, no point in waiting around until the will activates.

I've already won.

If you aren't a parent, you won't understand. Of course, you won't understand anything related to math or science or investing, because you are you.

But the Leaf is working great, it is even more electricity efficient than the 2015 model, it looks to be a keeper. And considering how inexpensive it was, it ranks as one of my best new car purchases ever in terms of usefulness per $ spent.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 19:53:09

Talking to yourself again are we? Posting pictures of kangaroos and meat pies :lol:
I'm going into town to do some shopping and pay a rego on a bike. I'll get a log of scotch fillet steak this week I think, did your father ever tell you about that cut adam? Super succulent, melts in your mouth! It was a common staple in America in the 1950's Enjoy your cereal instead.

Let them eat Flakes: Kellogg’s CEO says poor families should consider ‘cereal for dinner’
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 23:17:28

Gold and silver are both killing it. :-D Pretty sure Gold has just passed the S&P when measured over last ten years. 8O

We hold gold but only in jewelry form, no paper gold. The gold looks way nicer on my wife of 50+ years than it would in some vault.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Apr 2025, 22:34:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')We hold gold but only in jewelry form, no paper gold. The gold looks way nicer on my wife of 50+ years than it would in some vault.
PEACE (I hope)


I sold 2 motorcycles somewhere in the last century to satisfy my wife's first desire to decorate herself with gold when we married. One motorcycle for the ring, and another for the stone. It just gets worse with each decade anniversary. She has no interest when it is in coin or bar form. I figure she's forgot about it by now, I bought it before I married her, and it just hasn't ever...DONE...anything. Just sat there and sucked in terms of value growth compared to the market funds.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 24 Apr 2025, 22:20:15

No point in discussing Gold prices with people who don't even realize it's priced differently in different countries. A bit like discussing stellar evolution with a room full of astrologers. To them the stars are just pretty patterns in the sky that tell them when they are going to fall pregnant or when their dog will die.

Gold astrologers, I like it :roll:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Fri 25 Apr 2025, 21:05:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'N')o point in discussing Gold prices with people who don't even realize it's priced differently in different countries. A bit like discussing stellar evolution with a room full of astrologers. To them the stars are just pretty patterns in the sky that tell them when they are going to fall pregnant or when their dog will die.

Gold astrologers, I like it :roll:


Who cares what fiat gold is priced in, all fiats will eventually be worth $0.00. Always have always will.

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careinke
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 25 Apr 2025, 22:29:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'N')o point in discussing Gold prices with people who don't even realize it's priced differently in different countries.

No point in discussing oil with cretins who can't even pick their favorites from a list, but we do it anyway.

Besides, no one cares what the descendants of murderers and rapists and thieves and whatnot think about investing, those of your countrymen with IQs and better genes are probably already in NYC trying hard to live up to American exceptionalism. Having left the kangaroo riding high school dropouts behind.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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