[Plantagenet]

ASPO-USA has officially peaked.

Cheers!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'T')ita : You don't understand peak oil.
1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.

[ralfy]

In reference to what Sys1 shared, there is a paper here that looks at the standard run scenario of the Limits to Growth scenario in light of real data, and reveals that the latter has been tracking predicted trends the last four decades.

The same model reveals that global economic output will peak sometime in the 2020s, followed by global population which will peak in the 2050s. The main driver is a permanent drop in resource availability (which includes oil, for which oil discoveries peaked several decades ago and oil production per capita peaked in the late 1970s) coupled with pollution levels. (What's missing is global warming, which was not yet well-known when the model was constructed.) As for population, it is expected to drop because of increasing death rates (even with rising birth rates), and logically driven by increasing poverty coupled with a lack of resources.

Given the point that businesses like HSBC, Lloyd's, and others (including military and science organizations) have been making similar points and connecting the dots between peak oil, global warming, limits to growth, and financial crises, then it is obvious that one does not have to rely on only one group for information on peak oil, that peak oil is part of a growing set of global crises, and that problems will involve both fast crashes (as seen in many countries collapsing due to financial crises, and others falling apart due to combinations of the effects of peak oil, droughts, high food prices and unemployment, and even military intervention) and slow ones (as seen in increasing levels of credit needed to counter the effects of diminishing returns).

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.

[MD]

the community sprawl growth has resumed in Florida also.

[coffeeguyzz]

Tanada, your state, along with Pennsylvania and West Virginia stand at the epicenter of a possibly decades' long boom.
The fact that customers of Dominion Energy were paying $3.07/mmbtu when prices in NY and New England skyrocketed over $100 was noticed by many.

Right this weekend, South Australia is facing another electricity crisis due to heat.
If their power hungry smelters go offline for a few hours, it would be catastrophic. Meanwhile, the first new aluminum smelter in 40 years in the US broke ground last week near Ashland, Kentucky.

The world's cheapest electricity prices at 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt hour is luring manufacturers all over the globe to your region.
Two dozen huge CCGT plants are being built, fueled by Appalachian Basin natgas, ensuring low prices far off into the future.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coffeeguyzz', '.')..... The world's cheapest electricity prices at 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt hour is luring manufacturers all over the globe to your region.
Two dozen huge CCGT plants are being built, fueled by Appalachian Basin natgas, ensuring low prices far off into the future.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')So where are all the other such credit crises over the last 70 years?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')You haven't seen the last laugh yet. Thinking you have is just as silly as those who swore peak oil was in the past.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')Too many consumers. Not enough Planet.

[Sys1]

Fossil fuels count for 80% of our primary energy needs. By the way, this 80% is a very low claim since most of "alternative" energies need oil/coal/natural gas at one point or another during the process. (like say melting sand around 2000°C to build a solar pannel)
From there, peak oil matters more than anything else regarding economy and civilisation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_energy

Now if some braindead like I see everyday on this site and many many more on financial newspapers think that oil is just a useless shit from the past that will be easily replaced by magical thinking, artificial intelligence super power, Santa Clauss or Alice in Wonderland technology, I personnaly don't give a s*** about it, but I suggest them to share their pointless viewpoint on some business friendly site.
By reading this thread a little upper, I see there are still people unable to understand that a 147$ barrel collapsed the economy back in 2007. They don't understand that current economy is artifically alive (just like Frankenstein "He's alive!") thanks to FED/BCE and their episilon interest rates.
The game will be over when oil will go up once again : central banks will be checkmated : put interest up, economy collapses, keep interest around 0%, inflation will skyrocket and economy collapses.
Nevertheless, I'm not a doomer because of our apparent dire future. I'm a doomer because I think people are unable to understand that our economic paradigm is far closer from a cancer in an organism than from a civilisation on a planet.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'F')ossil fuels count for 80% of our primary energy needs. By the way, this 80% is a very low claim since most of "alternative" energies need oil/coal/natural gas at one point or another during the process. (like say melting sand around 2000°C to build a solar pannel)
From there, peak oil matters more than anything else regarding economy and civilisation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_energy

Now if some braindead like I see everyday on this site and many many more on financial newspapers think that oil is just a useless shit from the past that will be easily replaced by magical thinking, artificial intelligence super power, Santa Clauss or Alice in Wonderland technology, I personnaly don't give a s*** about it, but I suggest them to share their pointless viewpoint on some business friendly site.
By reading this thread a little upper, I see there are still people unable to understand that a 147$ barrel collapsed the economy back in 2007. They don't understand that current economy is artifically alive (just like Frankenstein "He's alive!") thanks to FED/BCE and their episilon interest rates.
The game will be over when oil will go up once again : central banks will be checkmated : put interest up, economy collapses, keep interest around 0%, inflation will skyrocket and economy collapses.
Nevertheless, I'm not a doomer because of our apparent dire future. I'm a doomer because I think people are unable to understand that our economic paradigm is far closer from a cancer in an organism than from a civilisation on a planet.

[Sys1]

GHung : Absolutely. Everytime I watch a business channel, I feel in the tone of journalists a powerfull hate towards everything that limits mankind thirst for our beloved God growth, aka money :
- Global warming? An hoax created by China communists!
- Peak oil? Impossible, the stoneage didn't end because we have runned out of stone! Anyway, we have Tesla cars!
- Exponential debt? Nevermind, we will create more debt to solve the problem! Look how great Greece is now!
- End of growth? Malthus old story! We will conquer space with artificial intelligence and we will upload our brains in computers in which we will play Starwars in virtual reality! We won't ever die thanks to Google!

Back in 2008, it drove me mad when I explained people what peak oil means. Lack of wisdom...
Now, I simply enjoy my life. People have to figure out by themselves the truth.
In 2005, I made the good choices when I discovered what peak oil is and how to "survive" in the sunset of our civilisation : never getting into debt, finding a crisis proof job (public elementary school teacher in France), getting closer with relatives to better protect each other.
Without the work from ASPO people (like Jean Laherre, Colin Campbell...), I would have made poor choices, and the consequences would have been potentially desastrous at least on a personnal level. Never will I thank them enough for that.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')On this forum, peak oil in its narrow sense, has been used as a strawman to avoid addressing a much broader process of systemic decline leading to collapse.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat good is to come from "addressing" limits to growth for the umteen millionth time when this group is so tiny and insular?

[tita]

Sys1 - Funny. I really think that at some point, we won't be able to increase our global oil supply, which will then decrease along with our GDP. And not for a lack of demand. I also think that we will hit soon some economic downturns. First in the correction of over-hyped stocks, and later with some more fundamental limit to the possible growth we can get. And I definitely think that oil played some role in the great recession following 2008, maybe the trigger that pushed the fragile house of cards (or houses of CDS). And I think it will play some role when the next wave of supply-demand imbalance happens.

Maybe I don't understand peak oil like you because I'm not a "believer" in peak oil, or whatever belief I could put in it. I try to understand the dynamic of oil over our economy and politics. Call this some moderate POV, but I'm quite pessimistic about what is coming to us. And a lot of people on this earth already suffer of the consequences of the oil depletion dynamic.

I just don't believe in dogmas, or twist reality to continue to believe in a dogma, like the "peak conventional oil happened in 2005". If it helps you, then good for you. Just don't try to impose it.

[Plantagenet]

This is the last peak oil website on earth. ASPO-USA is gone....so is ASPO-international and all the ASPO national offices around the world. The lights have gone out. Darkness is advancing on the last glimmers of light.

We're surrounded by trolls and hostiles. The situation is grim and difficult for peak oil doomers.


I'm not sure how much longer we can hold out here against the attacking trolls and cornucopians.

But I wouldn't have it any other way. By Jove, I am not covetous for gold, Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost; It yearns me not if men my garments wear; Such outward things dwell not in my desires. But if it be a sin to covet honour, I am the most offending soul alive.

God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour As one man more methinks would share from me For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more! Rather proclaim it, That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; We would not die in that man's company That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This website is call'd Peak Oil dot com. He that outlives this day, and comes safe home, Will stand a tip-toe when this website is nam'd, And rouse him at the name of peak oil. He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours, And say "To-morrow we feast for Peak Oil dot com." Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars, And say "These wounds I had for Peak Oil dot com." Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember, with advantages, What posts he made on Peak Oil dot com. Then shall our names, Familiar in his mouth as household words—
Plant, Psarr and Onlooker, SeaGypsy and Tanana, Cog and Dissident—Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red. This story shall the good man teach his son;And Peak Oil dot com shall ne'er be forgotten,
From this day to the ending of the world, But we in it shall be rememberèd-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers. We posters at Peak Oil dot com.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', 'Y')ou see...Plantagenet is a woman professor in english literature. Told you.