[onlooker]

Good point by Dissident as these EOR techniques just are accelerating production while empyting the reservoirs that much faster. Even I, a novice can apprehend that. Which as Dissident said will make the demise of many reserves all the more extreme and abrupt. So our bounty now will be our barreness in a short time. But all to satisy a world that needs and wants ever more energy.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'G')ood point by Dissident as these EOR techniques just are accelerating production while empyting the reservoirs that much faster. Even I, a novice can apprehend that.

[spike]

Yes, Baha, I agree about the danger of climate change from abundant oil. Regarding predictions, I have long ranted about the way too many judge good or bad predictions without asking "why?" 25 years ago at MIT I argued that economists were relying on a bad theory to predict that prices would gradually rise over the long term. https://books.google.com/books/about/Th ... SuOwAACAAJ
Dissident, what evidence do you have to support your views of a sharp, asymmetric decline? M Lynch

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', ' ')I agree about the danger of climate change from abundant oil. Regarding predictions, I have long ranted about the way too many judge good or bad predictions without asking "why?" 25 years ago at MIT I argued that economists were relying on a bad theory to predict that prices would gradually rise over the long term. https://books.google.com/books/about/Th ... SuOwAACAAJ
Dissident, what evidence do you have to support your views of a sharp, asymmetric decline? M Lynch

[ralfy]

Costs rose over the long term.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou need to brush up on your history as to how long shale wells have been producing. Devonian shale to be exact. Doesn't anyone here go to AAPG conferences to get real information anymore, people just say stuff without knowing anything?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the main concerns is at Saudi's Ghawar field, where EOR has been going on for decades. Of course Simmons pointed this out some time ago, and it hasn't happened yet, but at some point Ghawar almost certainly will indeed go into an asymmetric and precipitous production decline, removing 5 million bbls/day from the global oil market.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou need to brush up on your history as to how long shale wells have been producing. Devonian shale to be exact. Doesn't anyone here go to AAPG conferences to get real information anymore, people just say stuff without knowing anything?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'w')ater flood which is not EOR.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'w')ater flood which is not EOR.

[EdwinSm]

Implodes ???? Reading the link from the first post is seems more like "Fades away".

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly peakers would ignore the most basic sciences involved in their rush to do the curve fitting thing.

[asg70]

The middle-way, so to speak, is that we've kicked the can down the road.

My frustration is that there is a reluctance on the part of peakers to let go of the panic of 2008. If they can finally concede to the can kicking then maybe the discussion can finally...FINALLY shift to guestimating how LONG we've kicked the can down the road and what the world may be like when we really do fall off the plateau, considering that the world of the 2020s is going to have things that we didn't have back in 2008, such as EVs just starting to creep up the S-curve.

The polarization continues because the peak-oil remnant just continues to live in the past, refusing to concede, shifting goalposts, coming up with various apologias or new theories (ETP being the most popular). All this does is make what's left of the peak oil camp completely irrelevant to passers-by because they are just so damn out-of-touch with current realities. ASPO shutting down should be a wake-up call, but apparently not. The faithful are going down the whole flat-earth direction at this point.

The trend of late to pick a handful of old threads from over a decade ago and bump them also continues to paint a portrait of a group of people who are hopelessly trapped in the past, continuing to fight a battle that's already been lost, sort of like old bitter Confederate soldiers sitting on their porch shaking their fists at carpetbaggers.

Move on, people. Then maybe the ad homming will stop and some semblance of real discussion will resume.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly peakers would ignore the most basic sciences involved in their rush to do the curve fitting thing.

[dissident]

In a lot of the rabid denial of peak oil, the fact that discoveries have faded to well below replacement levels is systematically ignored. This allows for the wiggle room to spout BS.

T = Integral[(R(t)/E(t))dt]

T is the global lifetime of oil production, R(t) is the reservoir oil amount (accessible), E(t) is the global extraction rate. The instantaneous time is t. We have E(t) plateaued with a gradual increase. R(t) additions are falling off exponentially from the 1960s at the same time as previously discovered reservoirs are being depleted at increasing rates. A better of way to look at this integral is to split:

T = T_1 + T_2 where

T_1 = Integ[(R(t=t_now)/E(t))dt]

T_2 = Integ[((R(t)-R(t_now))/E(t))dt]

So the lifespan associated with current reserves is reduced by the future reservoir deficit, T_2 will become negative in the near future and the amplitude into the negative direction will rapidly increase. It seems like a lot people think that T_1 is the only thing that matters and make the wrong conclusion about the lifetime of BAU. It is shorter than you think.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o the lifespan associated with current reserves is reduced by the future reservoir deficit, T_2 will become negative in the near future and the amplitude into the negative direction will rapidly increase. It seems like a lot people think that T_1 is the only thing that matters and make the wrong conclusion about the lifetime of BAU. It is shorter than you think.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can't tell if you are a liar or just very stupid. You claim to have a background in the oil biz, but then you post silliness like this.

Have you ever heard of the oil service company called Schlumberger? They are the largest and perhaps the most respected oil service company in the world. If you don't know who they are then I suggest you google them up before posting any more silliness.

Schlumberger specifically defines water flooding as enhanced oil recovery. The term "enhanced oil recovery" is right there in the Schlumberger definition of water flooding. Check it out. The definition begins.... Terms: waterflooding [enhanced oil recovery....]

If you can't understand the definition of water flooding, especially the part at the beginning where it says "enhanced oil recovery", then look at Schlumberger's in depth definition of enhanced oil recovery, where Schlumberger includes a technical paper on the enhanced oil recovery project at Burghan, a large clastic reservoir in KSA.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')o one disputes peaks within cycles of development. Around here, we have even discussed the sine wave of oil production being far more representative than this nonsense single peak stuff. And yes, go study the areas that the EIA applies the Oil and Gas Supply Module to, and you will see that there is area to drill, they have quantified it, and if the price is right, any model worth its salt will go drill wells. Exactly what happened, and has continued to happen. There will come a time when there are fewer areas. And then we can begin to talk about the next cycles of development.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's not just technically producible, but at what rate too and EROEI. If we ignore prices and EROEI the vast majority can likely be recovered if you go through enough lengths. But there comes a point were it may be easier to manufacture than to get the last drops out. Also it is not guaranteed that technological improvement will allow for adequate rate of extraction of the latter remaining resources.