[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') Peak Oil: A Love Story is a good way to get people who aren't that interested in peak oil thinking about it. It's an entertaining way of getting the message across. We hope the new film will be like that also.

[Revi]

I just sent a copy to Pstarr. I would love to know what he thinks of it!

It's a little less than an hour and we are entering it into a bunch of film festivals.

So far it's been fun!

[Revi]

Here's a little preview of the film:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owUIkQJ_btM&t=5s

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - If you haven't ready my responses on the electric grid check of the details on the grid interconnections with the Canadians. I haven't researched it but there a hint that those need farms built by Canadians might be shipping much if not all the power out on the state to Canada. Might see if you can find info on long term electricity supply contracts. Much of Texas alt economics was justified with such fixed sales agreements.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')f you want to move the the public you have to either stroke or scare them. More rational science does not get through the numbskulls lol

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')evi - If you haven't ready my responses on the electric grid check of the details on the grid interconnections with the Canadians. I haven't researched it but there a hint that those need farms built by Canadians might be shipping much if not all the power out on the state to Canada. Might see if you can find info on long term electricity supply contracts. Much of Texas alt economics was justified with such fixed sales agreements.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')We'll see. It seems like the Net Energy paradigm is what is the current name for what we are talking about.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')i Revi,

received the DVD yesterday. Looking forward to viewing it. Love the cover art!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')evi - If you haven't ready my responses on the electric grid check of the details on the grid interconnections with the Canadians. I haven't researched it but there a hint that those need farms built by Canadians might be shipping much if not all the power out on the state to Canada. Might see if you can find info on long term electricity supply contracts. Much of Texas alt economics was justified with such fixed sales agreements.

[ralfy]

The catch is not oil price but production cost, and the latter is ultimately connected to energy return and not credit creation. That's why the oil industry had to borrow more money for lower increases in production, and needs higher prices to maintain production, if not increase it. No amount of increased credit will reverse diminishing returns.

Meanwhile, the global economy needs more energy at lower costs to support not just a growing population but also a growing middle class.

Best to use the ignore function.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he catch is not oil price but production cost, and the latter is ultimately connected to energy return and not credit creation.

[Revi]

We showed the film at a high school today, and the English class analyzed it for the "hero's journey", and it fit the story cycle pretty well. They seemed to really get it, which was great. Maybe it takes a younger audience in order to understand what I'm talking about.

Next showing is at Sugarloaf on the 23rd of February at 4:15 pm at the Carrabassett Valley Library.

[Revi]

Come up, do some xc or downhill skiing and see the film at 4:15! on Thursday, Feb. 23rd. It will be fun! It's right at the base of the access road.

[ROCKMAN]

Ralfy - "Doesn't sound like his company was running around borrowing bucketloads of cash". Just to belabor Adam's point: there are two fossil fuel extraction industries. Ones you see all those reports, press releases, Wall Street analysis, etc. IOW the public companies. The other you know virtually nothing about. In fact if I posted 20 of those largest companies (along with the Rockman's) I doubt you would recognize one of them. Those are the privately owned companies. And some do borrow capex but as a rule don't go bat shit crazy like the pubcos.

Those companies make money producing oil/NG the old way: by drilling profitable wells. When you own stock in a pubco you don't get a share of the profits except maybe for a tiny bit of dividends. You make the big bucks buying low and selling high. Folks think pubco stock owners lost their butts. Some did. But collectively others made tens of $BILLIONS during the shale boom...the ones that sold out before the bust. In fact every company that has filed bankruptcy and seen stock prices fall 80%+ had original shareholders/managers that made $millions.

Just as the companies buying those distressed assets today on the cheap will see very nice profits in the future.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')alfy - "Doesn't sound like his company was running around borrowing bucketloads of cash". Just to belabor Adam's point: there are two fossil fuel extraction industries. Ones you see all those reports, press releases, Wall Street analysis, etc. IOW the public companies. The other you know virtually nothing about. In fact if I posted 20 of those largest companies (along with the Rockman's) I doubt you would recognize one of them. Those are the privately owned companies. And some do borrow capex but as a rule don't go bat shit crazy like the pubcos.

Those companies make money producing oil/NG the old way: by drilling profitable wells. When you own stock in a pubco you don't get a share of the profits except maybe for a tiny bit of dividends. You make the big bucks buying low and selling high. Folks think pubco stock owners lost their butts. Some did. But collectively others made tens of $BILLIONS during the shale boom...the ones that sold out before the bust. In fact every company that has filed bankruptcy and seen stock prices fall 80%+ had original shareholders/managers that made $millions.

Just as the companies buying those distressed assets today on the cheap will see very nice profits in the future.

[ROCKMAN]

Ralfy - You focus on the big picture and not the portion of the oil industry I described. So let me use my company as a specific examples. A private company owned by a $billionaire. Started new company (like he did during the previous boom time) 7 years ago and spent about $300 million (and not one penny borrowed) on prospects that would be profitable at the then current price. As a result we were profitable. And now prices have fallen and we are ready to spend another $300 million. Except this time focused on buying proved reserves with upside drilling potential. And we are paying based on current oil/NG prices. Which means we are acquiring reserves for about 1/3 the current oil price. Which means even if prices fall 50% we still make a profit. Not a lot but not losing money either. And the drilling upside of those acquisitions will be done much cheaper the was spent during the boom. And done only for that upside that makes a profit at current prices.

And again the reason I toss out these details is that you won't see much if any thing about this in the MSM. So while ExxonMobil will put out press releases about multi $billion acquisitions you won't see any from the Rockman's company or the rest of our segment. I've said it before and I'm sure many still don't believe it: drilling profits are inversely proportional to oil/NG prices: high prices = lower profit margins. Understand I'm talking about monies made from drilling and not from flipping stock with inflated prices.

To put a romantic spin on it: there is a "shadow oil patch" out here. And while I could give you a list of names identifying those companies I would also have to kill you. LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

Ralfy - "...if the global economy weakens considerably..." I'm sure you heard it before: the one-eyed man is king in the land of the blind. And the man with the big checkbook is king in the land of the weakened economies. It's not that difficult to understand. For instance the highest profits made in the real estate market is done on properties bought DURING A BUST.

Imagine if you had invested your life savings in a Dow Jones index fund just 8 years ago when it was 6,600. Now it would be worth 19,800+. IOW in just 8 years you could have tripled your money. What are the odds of buying DJA today at 19,800 and selling it for about 60,000 in 10 years?

Hell, just ask your neighborhood broker: I'm sure he can provide you a story that clearly shows that possibility. LOL

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - Reposting to make sure you see this story about New York stealing Revi's 100% green electricity. LOL.

New York is pushing hard to shut down some of it nuke plants which supply almost as much as their NG fired plants. So how do they make up for the loss? If I were the NY gov I would look closely at TransCanada's planned sale of $10 BILLION of electricity generating infrastructure with much of it from hydro, wind and solar. And thanks to the Quebec Interconnection Grid the state of New York has access to alt energy produced in Canada. Consider what's happening already:

"Hertel–New York Interconnection: The project comprises the construction of a 58-km long, 320-kV underground direct-current (DC) line between Hertel substation in La Prairie and the Canada-United States border. The project also includes the installation of a converter at Hertel substation, which will convert alternating current to direct current to supply the new interconnection.

The new line will connect to the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project, which is currently under study in the United States. The project proponent is Transmission Developers Inc. and the aim of CHPE is to supply power to New York City. The project includes plans to build an underground and underwater DC line between the Canada–United States border and New York City, spanning over 330 miles."

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')alfy - You focus on the big picture and not the portion of the oil industry I described. So let me use my company as a specific examples. A private company owned by a $billionaire. Started new company (like he did during the previous boom time) 7 years ago and spent about $300 million (and not one penny borrowed) on prospects that would be profitable at the then current price. As a result we were profitable. And now prices have fallen and we are ready to spend another $300 million. Except this time focused on buying proved reserves with upside drilling potential. And we are paying based on current oil/NG prices. Which means we are acquiring reserves for about 1/3 the current oil price. Which means even if prices fall 50% we still make a profit. Not a lot but not losing money either. And the drilling upside of those acquisitions will be done much cheaper the was spent during the boom. And done only for that upside that makes a profit at current prices.

And again the reason I toss out these details is that you won't see much if any thing about this in the MSM. So while ExxonMobil will put out press releases about multi $billion acquisitions you won't see any from the Rockman's company or the rest of our segment. I've said it before and I'm sure many still don't believe it: drilling profits are inversely proportional to oil/NG prices: high prices = lower profit margins. Understand I'm talking about monies made from drilling and not from flipping stock with inflated prices.

To put a romantic spin on it: there is a "shadow oil patch" out here. And while I could give you a list of names identifying those companies I would also have to kill you. LOL.