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America now has more untapped oil than any other country

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby AdamB » Sun 17 Jul 2016, 08:37:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '[')url=https://student.societyforscience.org/article/brain-damage-seen-potent-marijuana-smokers]Maybe a little too much pot being smoked over in Humboldt county would explain things?[/url]


Well, at least he isn't as unfortunate as those who got a degree from this place where the kids aren't even smart enough to figure out what to do with the stuff on their own.

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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby dissident » Sun 17 Jul 2016, 20:19:00

So much cornucopian masturbation in this thread including from the resident anthropogenic climate change denier. So some previously undeveloped but known and expensive resource was exploited (Bakken, Eagle Ford, etc.). Big f*cking whoop. That in no way supports the notion that price will release a never ending amount of untapped reservoirs. I dare any of you cornucopian clowns to identify a single new tight oil or bitumen formation in the USA that has been discovered in the last few years that has any significance. And US oil and condensate production actually fell 8% over the last year. So this cornucopia can't even deliver on a sustained basis without economy-destroying prices.

The report cited in the original post is a total joke. It just takes existing reservoirs and applies an ad hoc scaling factor. Not a single bit of evidence is provided of new deposits. If it's quoted by CNN then it must be God's truth, since CNN knows oil....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut there are seas of oil just waiting to get tapped once oil prices rebound. Texas, home to the Eagle Ford, Permian and Barnett shale oil plays, holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil alone, Rystad estimates. That's more than the untapped oil in all of China. There are also vast sums of oil beneath the ground in North Dakota, where the Bakken shale oil play sits.


Wank, wank, wank. Not a single new exploration campaign is available that would support this drivel. If there is shale, well then, there must be "shale oil".

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-1 ... ximum.html

Now we see where this Norwegian report gets its cornucopian excrement from. There is supposedly 300 billion barrels in the Bakken formation but life ain't that simple. The actual accessible amount is much smaller and there is no indication that production from the Bakken is growing without bound.

Life must be easy for cornucopian oil reserves estimators. They can pull whatever number out of their collective anus they want and saps will just lap it up.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby AdamB » Sun 17 Jul 2016, 21:13:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', ' ')So some previously undeveloped but known and expensive resource was exploited (Bakken, Eagle Ford, etc.). Big f*cking whoop. That in no way supports the notion that price will release a never ending amount of untapped reservoirs.


No one said anything about neverending anything. Just more resources, ignored by the geologically challenged, who confused production rates with resource potential. Happens all the time,ever since the USGS was declaring US peak oil...in 1919.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissidnet', '
') I dare any of you cornucopian clowns to identify a single new tight oil or bitumen formation in the USA that has been discovered in the last few years that has any significance.


Trick question. We have so much already laying around discovered, there is no need to go out and find MORE. I mean, the ROZ in the Permian alone is enough to rock a peak oilers world. Or create yet ANOTHER peak in the US sine wave oil cycle production model.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
') And US oil and condensate production actually fell 8% over the last year. So this cornucopia can't even deliver on a sustained basis without economy-destroying prices.


The US economy grew the entire time those "economy-destroying prices" were here...and...there was no economy destroying. More reading up on current events, less getting carried away aka Pstarr style!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')The report cited in the original post is a total joke.


Except it was authored by folks who know more about resources and whatnot than folks here. Particularly those who think that crude prices that didn't destroy the economy destroyed the economy!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut there are seas of oil just waiting to get tapped once oil prices rebound. Texas, home to the Eagle Ford, Permian and Barnett shale oil plays, holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil alone, Rystad estimates. That's more than the untapped oil in all of China. There are also vast sums of oil beneath the ground in North Dakota, where the Bakken shale oil play sits.


Wank, wank, wank. Not a single new exploration campaign is available that would support this drivel. If there is shale, well then, there must be "shale oil".


Rystadt didn't make that mistake, no. And as mentioned earlier, no exploration campaign needed with the kind of resources the US has. Does our abundance of natural resources bother you for some reason? The EIA says we will be net energy balanced with the world around 2017 or so. Empirical proof of what energy experts can see, as opposed to what folks HOPE to see...and keep waiting...and waiting...and waiting.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')Life must be easy for cornucopian oil reserves estimators. They can pull whatever number out of their collective anus they want and saps will just lap it up.

Something caused US production to grow faster than at an tie in its history. This happened AFTER peak oil in the US, and world, was declared by "experts". So no, no pulling from ass, just experts that could see the shale revolution, knew some geology, and got the basics right. Compared to THESE "experts" who ended up with..you know.egg on their face. The funny thing? The people they are whining about were busy UNDERESTIMATING US oil production rates.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2011- ... steven-chu
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Jul 2016, 21:43:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') dare any of you cornucopian clowns to identify a single new tight oil or bitumen formation in the USA that has been discovered in the last few years that has any significance.

as pointed out all of the shale reservoirs were known to have some amount of reserves in them. The Permian has become a very big deal as of late with a number of layers of shale or unconventional (i.e. silty) reservoirs.
Not sure why you would even comment on something that you clearly haven't a clue about.
The resource estimate is a reasonable one and whether it will turn into reserves or not is all about costs, price, timing etc. There are many moving parts. That does not say the resource is not there which is all the "total joke" report you refer to is saying. That has been part of the discussion which clearly you don't have the background to understand.
Perhaps you can regal us all with your massive experience in calculating reserves and resources and your apparently incredible understanding of the various shale basins or continuous resources that are present. Apparently you are the expert who can dismiss analyses done by those who have access to a lot of data and do this for a living. We are all waiting with baited breath. :roll:
And this has nothing whatsoever to do with "cornucopians" but rather to do with folks who aren't expecting the world to blow up tomorrow, let alone wanting it to as some at this site clearly do. The discussion revolves around data and interpretations with an idea to understanding what is really there. All of us realize it is a limited resource, the issue is understanding what the actual technical resource is and what out of that is recoverable.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby StarvingLion » Sun 17 Jul 2016, 22:23:53

Here is what all that Shale "Goodness" is bringing...The MASSIVE losses from Shale has to come from somewhere. They are barring the Fire Exit doors to make sure no one escapes some Shale Bail-In Lovin. Then comes the Bomb-In's "This is the Mayor speaking. I've ordered an air-strike on ourselves. We are not sustainable":

https://johntrumanwolfe.com/blog/

THE WAR ON CASH: CAUSES AND CURES

That we are moving at light speed to a cashless society is not the plan of some future dystopian agenda.

It is happening now.


Moreover, virtually every major country and / or central bank in the world has instituted restrictions on the use or ownership of cash. I mean everybody has jumped on this bandwagon.

This dramatically increases bank revenue and cuts the expense of handling that filthy paper. It can also stop bank runs.

But if the banks institute sweeping negative interest rates, depositors will take their money out of the bank and put it in safes at home, or under the mattress, in the cookie jar, or in the out house.

But if money is digital….no can do.


This agenda is in full swing globally as we speak.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Jul 2016, 22:31:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere is what all that Shale "Goodness" is bringing...The MASSIVE losses from Shale has to come from somewhere:

exactly what does this have to do with shale?
You want to rant about every bear you think is hiding behind a tree but can't find some place to rant about it so you just randomly select a thread?
Stay on topic please. I realize this is difficult when the froth coming out of your mouth gets all over your keyboard....but please put in the effort. :roll:
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 02:53:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he United States of Gluttony alone


This statement is everything you need to know about PStarr's bias. He hates the US due to its "gluttony" so much as to come up with put-down phrases.

Unconventional is not limited to the US. The tar-sands of Canada came first. Do you have a matching political cartoon portraying Canadians as gluttonous? Or maybe a cartoon of animals stuck in tailing ponds? Secondly, this IEA link about unconventional potential worldwide is only two or three links down on a google search.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11611

If you go by geology alone, one can assume that eventually, shale will become a "thing" in other countries.

There's no truth to the idea that other countries are somehow so superior in virtue and culture that they won't go there.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby tita » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 03:19:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')f you go by geology alone, one can assume that eventually, shale will become a "thing" in other countries.

There's no truth to the idea that other countries are somehow so superior in virtue and culture that they won't go there.

You are right. If someone is able to convince political leaders that shale is a very interesting investment, with great economic benefits, there is no reason they won't go there.

But first, we have to answer the question of the economic benefits of US shale. Which is not easily answered by the amount of oil produced daily, but also from the economics that were involved in it. It is actually not very successful. And not many leaders are interested in unsuccessful economic adventure.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 10:42:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ight shale has not been produced (in measurable quantity) anywhere else. And won't be.


wrong....currently being produced at it's early stages in Argentina. The Chinese have been producing shale oil and gas for some time as well, they just don't write about it. There is production (small at this stage but growing) in Australia. In Poland there were a number of wells drilled with production tests that would be economic if services were abundant (this will change through time). In Algeria Sonatrach has been producing shale gas from the Devonian for a number of years. The wells are vertical but fracked into a mixture of shales and siltstones with a wide range in permeability form microdarcies to nanodarcies. Shale has been indentified and investigated in Spain, France, Germany and the UK. Regulatory issues has halted further investigation but that will likely change in the future.

What has held back other countries is 2 issues....1. regulatory (in most countries there is no means of handling shale and fracking regs and how to share revenues or recover costs is still and issue) and 2. lack of a very strong and competitive service industry (in the US there are Mom and Pop fluid trucking companies and a myriad of small service companies that can do just about everything except large megafracks. Overseas it is mainly Haliburton and Schlumberger although Calfrac and a couple of other small independant service companies have shown up recently in Argentina).
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby AdamB » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 11:03:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')But first, we have to answer the question of the economic benefits of US shale. Which is not easily answered by the amount of oil produced daily, but also from the economics that were involved in it. It is actually not very successful. And not many leaders are interested in unsuccessful economic adventure.


Define "not very successful". Rockman has made it perfectly clear what drives oil companies. Make $10,000 on drilling, completing and producing a shale well, and it doesn't sound like much. Drill 10,000 of them (shale areas tend to be BIG) and even EXCLUDING shale development doing the following, 1) repeak US oil and natural gas production, 2) causing the US to become the worlds largest energy producer and, 3) become net energy balanced by 2017, and you would be sitting around in your mcmansion with 1 trophy wife and 2 mistresses, debating the need for an afternoon Ferrari ride though the countryside to lament how rough it is, being a 1%'er.

Not very successful? You must be shooting for Zuckerberg elitism, versus the kind most of the rest of us would be content with.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 11:13:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut first, we have to answer the question of the economic benefits of US shale. Which is not easily answered by the amount of oil produced daily, but also from the economics that were involved in it. It is actually not very successful. And not many leaders are interested in unsuccessful economic adventure.


not very successful? Not sure what planet you are living on but oil and gas companies got into the shale business to make money, not create production. They are hardly "not for profit" organizations. As an example Cheseapeake Energy (exclusively unconventional production) had an operating net profit after tax and royalties of about $5 B in 2014. The issue has been that many of the larger shale companies took on huge debt loads to allow them to expand rapidly. When prices were high this wasn't a problem as company netbacks were easily high enough to absorb the carrying costs. When prices dropped companies were helped by costs which also dropped but were hindered by the static nature of loan payments. Up until the crash in prices the industry was contributing a very large share to the US GDP. Demand and Supply curves are now approaching each other agains suggesting prices will rise to a point where much of the shales are again very economic. There is a wide range in breakeven costs with some areas of the Eagleford being profitable at anything over $30/bbl and it is noted that the vast majority of shales in the US are profitable at $60/bbl

IHS did a study that indicated the unconventional industry was supporting 1.7 MM jobs in 2012 (when things were booming) and those were all jobs paying higher than in other industries. The unconventional industry at that time contributed $237 B/yr to US GDP and in 2012 made up ~$60 B in federal and state revenues. Daniel Yergin was the one to point out that the big bonus was before the shale gas industry took off the US suffered twice a year (heating season and cooling season) with large upwards spikes in natural gas prices. In order to supply enough natural gas to the US they were looking at annual costs of $100 B to import LNG....this bullet being dodged due to the large discoveries in the Marcellus and elsewhere.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby AdamB » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 11:14:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ight shale has not been produced (in measurable quantity) anywhere else. And won't be.


wrong....currently being produced at it's early stages in Argentina. The Chinese have been producing shale oil and gas for some time as well, they just don't write about it. There is production (small at this stage but growing) in Australia. In Poland there were a number of wells drilled with production tests that would be economic if services were abundant (this will change through time). In Algeria Sonatrach has been producing shale gas from the Devonian for a number of years. The wells are vertical but fracked into a mixture of shales and siltstones with a wide range in permeability form microdarcies to nanodarcies. Shale has been indentified and investigated in Spain, France, Germany and the UK. Regulatory issues has halted further investigation but that will likely change in the future.


Was talking with some of those folks developing in Argentina, and I asked them, "what is it with the vertical wells, is the production so great from verticals that you don't need the orders of magnitude change in cross sectional flow area that the horizontals bring" and the answer surprised me. Hadn't seen an isopach of the shale in question before, and the turns out they are perforated across thousands of feet. You could argue they already have a horizontal well, because it penetrates thousands of feet of formation, and just doesn't need to lay on its side.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')What has held back other countries is 2 issues....1. regulatory (in most countries there is no means of handling shale and fracking regs and how to share revenues or recover costs is still and issue) and 2. lack of a very strong and competitive service industry (in the US there are Mom and Pop fluid trucking companies and a myriad of small service companies that can do just about everything except large megafracks. Overseas it is mainly Haliburton and Schlumberger although Calfrac and a couple of other small independant service companies have shown up recently in Argentina).


Harold Hamm gave a keynote speech somewhere, I caught it a year or two back, and he has a catchier way of explaining why it took off in the US, and not so much elsewhere.

We've got rigs, rednecks and royalties. Others haven't figured out why these are necessary for industrial scale development yet. But they will.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 12:34:29

well maybe you should go somewhere other than Wikipedia, perhaps Reuters

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Today the Loma Campana field is producing 44,000-45,000 barrels per day equivalent," Galuccio said.

Galuccio was referring to the field YPF is exploiting with Chevron Corp and which accounts for nearly all of Argentina's shale production.

"This is the highest level of production from a non-conventional resource anywhere outside of the United States," Galuccio said.

The figure compares with production of 41,000 bpd reported by YPF in late February.


FYI Galuccio was the CEO of YPF until a couple of months ago when the new President did a full changeout of YPF and the Energy Ministry. YPF is now in the throws of selling all of their conventional production and doubling down on the Vaca Muerta and Los Molles.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 18:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il equivalent Rockdoc. This is an oil thread, not natural gas

This is precisely what you said

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Tight shale has not been produced (in measurable quantity) anywhere else. And won't be.


You didn’t say what was being produced. Your statement was completely false as I pointed out. And if you knew anything whatsoever about production from shales it is absolutely essential that there is a high GOR in oil and often the most value is produced from the volatile oil to condensate window. Those who want to quibble about….."you can’t add condensate to oil" are of course out to lunch as the two are utilized for many of the same things. As well you should not separate out gas production as it offsets the consumption of fuel oil, leaving more liquids for sale.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nless oil goes to $70/barrel (and then again crushes the world economy) that will probably be all.


Oil is currently selling in Argentina at a fixed price of $68/bbl for light crude (it was at $72/bbl under the last administration). That price is obviously healthy enough for Exxon to have already invested around $200 MM and with a commitment to invest $10 billion over the next 10 years. Argentina fixes their oil price against fluctuations so it is clear that Exxon is not expecting a future bump due to rising world price.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby Synapsid » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 20:12:14

rockdoc,

One thing I'm wondering about in Argentina is the Supreme Court's stepping in to prohibit what was going to be a price hike for NG to something like $7.50/MMBTU. This was last week, and I believe it's the first time the Court has done such a thing. I'm looking to see if they're looking at oil as well.

Always something of interest in NW Argentina. If it isn't oil, it's dinosaurs.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby StarvingLion » Mon 18 Jul 2016, 23:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')shooting for Zuckerberg elitism


The epitome of insolvency.

Shitty rocks can't make for a wealthy oil kingdom so they chose an idiocracy instead.

All the Kings technology can't turn shitty shale/tar goop into a treasure.

The Morons are talking to each other waiting for the inevitable collapse. Thats FacePlant... er Book.
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