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America now has more untapped oil than any other country

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby tita » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 03:36:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '&')quot;Everything is fine" is defined by personal circumstance for everyone, including peakers.

Confidence is powerful. Everybody has different confidence levels. But good or bad economic perspective change this level for everybody at the same time.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')ou can't find peakers themselves (ralfy was the last poster I challenged with this one) telling stories of how peak oil has changed their lives,

One word: efficiency. The houses we build, the cars we drive, the works we do. Everything that uses oil has to be more efficient. Even the plastic films used for packing is thinner. It's not about collapse and Mad Max world. It's about a lower quality of our way of life. Oil brought us easy life, the top being in the 60's when everything seemed possible. Since the 70's, we're going down.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'P')eakers would have said that the shale revolution could never have happened, prior to it happening.

Actually, almost nobody including experts expected the shale revolution. The idea (10 years ago) was that production would be coming from Iraq and other places with affordable oil, and prices would stay between 40-60 actual $. But you're right, some people were smart enough to think shale would be profitable. Mostly oil industry people who understand the logic of the peak oil. Amateurs like us don't know enough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'T')ell me, since this bad logic was used in the late 1970's, that means we have needed what, 10 new Saudi Arabias? Can you name all these new Saudi Arabias that joined OPEC between, say, 1980 and today?

Turn it over. What would the current situation of oil look like if we found 10 Gawhar-like fields since 1980? Obviously, we wouldn't be drilling shale oil, tar sands, arctic oil, DW, LNG. We would still believe in the cornucopian world of the 60's, and consume much more oil.

We are not in this era of cheap oil anymore. We can't count on it to supply our growth. And we look very hard for alternatives. We have to.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 09:15:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')It's not about collapse and Mad Max world. It's about a lower quality of our way of life.


It's important to look at quality of life from the biggest perspective (limits to growth) rather than merely peak-oil.

For instance, the difficulty of buying solid wood furniture today, how most "wood" furniture is really just sawdust and glue with a woodgrain sticker applied. That isn't peak-oil. It's overshoot and ecological drawdown. Adulterated foods like wood shavings in Parmesan cheese and the various ills of factory farming. That's overshoot. In order to keep things cheap for more and more people, the quality of goods sold goes down. Soylent Green is kind of the last stop on that train as far as keeping everyone fed on a denuded planet of mostly human biomass.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby AdamB » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 15:07:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ll right No takers. :x The answer is not China, not India . . . but Japan. Japan imports 4.6 million barrels/day.

Guess who the 1st Greatest Oil Importer of All Times is? None of the above. Hint: that nation imports more than TWICE what Japan does.

okay . . . Go . . . 1 minute. :)


the same nation that is expected to become net energy balanced within the next year or two?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby AdamB » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 15:23:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 't')he same nation that is expected to become net energy balanced within the next year or two?

Good guy Adam :) Always ready to pony up with a new crock of horsepucky.


EIA information presented by the Administrtor himself, based on existing trends, assumptions of price recovery, elasticities and all that icky economics stuff.

May I recommend a modicum of learning, prior to foot in mouth?

Slide 12.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2016).pdf

Quick question, do you pay attention to ANY source of credible information? Or do you just exclude all of that out of hand and make up what you say, hoping folks won't notice?

I wonder though, I thought I noticed this same graph with energy exporter status coming along earlier than shows on Slide 12. I'll go find the original, I probably saved it somewhere, and compare. I found the original when some EIA speaker put it up during a presentation, wonder if it was an earlier version?

In either case, follow the trend and you'll see that it predicts net energy exports the same way that Whatevers ETP has predicted lower prices...for 2 years.

Short term trends are great!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('psatarr', '
')net-energy? Is that like eroei? Are you ETP? Do you do thermodynamics? Call on Short and Whatever and amen!


Slide 12, and then you can speak from a position of something who knows.....like....a single fact!! Talk about "instructional"!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 15:25:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')apan imports 4.6 million barrels/day.


Oh, the horror! And they even have a debt problem that's been more prolonged than the US! Whither their zombie horde?
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 15:31:27

Part of that oil goes through the tailpipe of your truck.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 15:34:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o ennui, so I suppose my tutelage is a waste of time.


Tutelage? You already conceded twice that you're "just here for the yuks".

Considering how poorly you construct your arguments, that's quite evident.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 16:12:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') guess it is up to you ennui: you are now going to tell me/us that the United States has plenty of untapped oil.


there are two issues to that question 1. what is technically recoverable today and 2. what is economically recoverable.

If you go to the Rystad report on their web page (I think the link is up a few pages back in this thread) the 1P reserves estimated for the US is 29 GB bbls. According to the IEA there is about 15 GB of proved non-producing oil in the US. The Rystad report also points out there is 80 GB of most likely reserves attached to existing fields and discoveries and about 109 GB bbls associated with yet to be discovered fields. Using the normal probabilities you could say there is 100% chance there is 14 GB bbls of reserves (i.e. proved producing), somewhere between 90% and 100% chance there is an additional 15 GB bbls ...for arguments sake lets say 95% for proved non-producing), about a 50% chance there is an additional 80 GB of reserves and about a 10% chance there is an additional 109 GB bbls on top of that. ON a risked basis that adds up to a total of ~67 GB bbls of reserves available. Of course such risked reserve analysis is somewhat meaningless given you could be higher or lower in reality, just one way of looking at it.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 16:20:41

PStarr, you've got to drop this attitude that you are somehow the standard-bearer of peak-oil, that you represent the offical group-think of this site, and that I am some sort of outlier.

It's this quasi-delusions-of-grandeur you've got going on. You swagger around this site as if you are sort of the unofficial moderator, even though YOU are the one who got temporarily banned, and if it were put to a vote, I suspect the one thing most of the remaining posters here would agree on would be to PERMA BAN you.

After all, you came out of the closet to admit that you're just a TROLL (here for the yuks). So what exactly do you have to contribute other than to hurl insults?

Once you've hurled your insults at just about everyone here, whether it's peak-oilers who aren't doomy enough for you or AGW doomers (like Ibon and Dohboi) who are TOO doomy for you, who exactly can you claim as an ideological ally other than Whatever and Shortonoil???

The three of you are on the losing end of this argument. There are other places where you can stay within the womb of a more sympathetic echo chamber, but it's NOT here. The sooner you realize this, the better, because you're currently deluded
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 16:23:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')lways good to hear from the doc. :)


Until he says something you don't want to hear, in which case you insult him just like you insult everyone else.
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