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America now has more untapped oil than any other country

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 18:00:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o has anyone yet figured how we could have more untapped oil than any other country? It just doesn't make any sense to me (and those 41 lurkers), when we just last year in 2015 sent $175 billion overseas buying as much oil as we produce.


There are a lot of moving parts in this I believe. I suspect many refineries have contractual agreements that are somewhat longer term so that they can purchase the crude at a volume discount. In order to drill all the wells required to offset imports the capital requirements would be huge and the access to capital through either the public or private market has dried up almost completely as far as oil and gas is concerned. If and when the purse strings get unleashed again there will be a surge in drilling but because so many wells are required I think the growth will be slow, most companies having learned their lessons about being over-leveraged to debt.

Lets say my risked resource guess number of 60 GB bbls is correct, at an average EUR per shale well of say 300,000 bbls and an average cost of say $4 MM D&C you are looking at 200,000 successful wells and a capital expenditure of $800 GB before transportation. Not chump change.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 18:13:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')kay. Okay. Okay. Time is up.

As per the topic: The United States, the country whose 'untapped reserves' are greater than any other country, is that country that imports more crude oil than any other country in the world. Yes! America is Numero Uno. Number 1. The BEST!!!!!! . . . at throwing away money.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
How much petroleum does the United States import and export?

In 2015, the United States imported approximately 9.4 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 82 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, liquefied refinery gases, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels including ethanol and biodiesel.Apr 1, 2016

How much petroleum does the United States import and export?
Over half of that is reexported. US net imports are only 4.65 MMbpd.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. role as a global trader of petroleum products
Petroleum products are traded globally, and the United States has a long history of exporting certain petroleum products and importing others to balance refinery outputs and to satisfy global demand. Due to the strong growth in U.S. exports, the U.S. share of global exports of petroleum products, by volume, nearly doubled during 2009-13 from 8 percent to 15 percent.
U.S. BECOMING A LEADING EXPORTER OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

This is less than China. Japan's not in second place either. It's in fourth. Behind China, the US, and India. Japan's demand has been falling while India's has been growing:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndia sustained crude oil imports at a record and purchased more diesel than it has in the previous three years combined. That’s roughly equivalent to 4.39 million barrels a day. India is becoming the center of global oil demand growth as an expanding economy translates into more goods being transported and increasing consumer spending.
Booming India imports record amounts of crude

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')apan’s crude oil imports last year fell to the lowest level since 1988 as demand weakens amid a declining population and more efficient vehicles. The world’s third-biggest economy imported 195.5 million kiloliters of oil, or about 3.37 million barrels a day in 2015, a 2.3 percent drop from the previous year.
Japan Oil Imports Fall to Lowest Since 1988 as Demand Drops
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 18:43:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')have to agree with Whatever/Futilist. What you have just purveyed would not past muster in a hog auction. Nonsense.


Ruh roh. Now poor doc is back on PStarr's shitlist because he said something PStarr doesn't like. How long did doc stay in PStarr's good graces? An hour at most? You see, you read someone's posts long enough and you can anticipate their next move like a clairvoyant in Minority Report.

BTW, it's PASS muster...not PAST muster. You seem to have problems with typing, like your instence on calling it "fracting" rather than fracking.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 18:51:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ave to agree with Whatever/Futilist. What you have just purveyed would not past muster in a hog auction. Nonsense.


what an intelligent response and discussion....I guess we could not have expected more. A pity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o here you are saying it would be prohibitive (cost-wise from an economic framework) to actually use our own vast reserves? Gotta agree.


not what I said at all. The question is why the US would buy oil elsewhere rather than drill it all. All in the cost isn't much different for the refinery, as I said they may have commitments. The companies that are ready and willing to drill up these reserves in the US need capital.....which is not available, neither debt nor equity, public nor private currently. That does not mean it will remain so. Meanwhile the US refineries still needs oil which they will purchase elsewhere until they do not have to.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby Lore » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 19:19:54

Hey, I have some very good friends in Norway!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 19:23:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')ut how about that other 4.65 MMbpd we bring in daily? It still dwarfs imports into any other country.
No. As I just posted China imports more than that:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina's imports reached a previous record of 7.81 million bpd in December, closing out 2015 with an average 6.71 million bpd. Fuel exports in February rose 71.8 percent on a daily basis compared to the same month last year, reaching 2.99 million tonnes, or 721,700 bpd.
China crude oil imports hit record 8 million bpd in February

Assuming my math is right: 6.71 - .72 = 6 MMbpd of Chinese net imports of oil vs 4.65 MMbpd for the US.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy do we do it . . . if we have more untapped oil than any other country in the world. Makes no sense, unless the thread and all its diversions, distractions, and denial are merely a load of horsepucky? Just sayin'
There could be many reasons. First I would ask do we actually have more untapped oil than any other country? A quick check of Proven oil reserves gives very different numbers than the report in the OP gives. I have not delved into the details of this report. Could be BS for all I know. But let's assume for the moment that it is true. Next question: Is it cheap to produce? Since they mention more than half of it comes from shale let's assume the answer to this one is a no. So even if we have large amounts of untapped oil it is expensive to produce. That means it makes more economic sense to import it from another country who can extract it cheaper. That's not even getting into more complicated issues like financing, fracking NIMBY/ environmental pushback, etc.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 19:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')conomics has nothing to do with it. Right? Or it has everything to do with it? Confusing.


I do not see why this is so confusing to you. These countries have oil that they are willing to sell and ship now. There is oil reserves in the ground in the US that require wells and the capital to drill those wells is not available regardless of how economic it might be at this minute. Where do you think the money to develop shale gas/oil comes from if not the investment banks? The oil is needed now so you buy it from whoever sells it until such time as you have drilled enough wells and brought them onstream.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 20:55:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o China imports lots of oil (not nearly as much as the US . . . but hey). Yet does not export oil products? Let's see the data. That seems to be your argument as to justify US imports. Everybody export/imports oil. Does the argument really hold for China. They import a whole lot but do they also send out a whole lot?
Like the US, China exports a large amount of refined oil products. But it is still nowhere near the US level. The US exported 4.75 MMbpd of oil & refined oil products last year. China just passed 1.02 MMbpd.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'r')ock, we were importing 13 million barrels/day when oil was $100/barrel. And if that did not stimulate capital to develop those untapped billions, then I must be a monkey's uncle.
But it did. Oil at $100 lead to an explosion of developement in the US. US Crude oil production went from 5 MMbpd in 2008 to 9.4 MMbpd in 2015. We nearly doubled our oil production in just a few years.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 21:44:24

pstarr - "So has anyone yet figured how we could have more untapped oil than any other country?" Easy to understand this way: untapped oil = noncommercial oil. In the 90's we had the tech to develop billions of bbls of untapped oil in the US...the Bakken, the EFS, the Permian Basin, etc. What we didn't have were justifiable economics. But then when oil prices tripled we tapped the sh*t out of them. LOL. And with the oil price collapse the US has seen a huge increase in untappable oil.

OTOH there could be other countries, such as Russia, with much more untapped oil. They just haven't drilled enough to quantify how much noncommercial oil they have. LOL. Just as there's much more "untapped" gold dissolved in the world's ocean then we've already mined to date. In fact: the world produces a cube of gold that is about about 14 feet on each side every year. In other words, all of the gold produced worldwide in one year could just about fit in the average person's living room.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Jul 2016, 00:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')ock, we were importing 13 million barrels/day when oil was $100/barrel. And if that did not stimulate capital to develop those untapped billions, then I must be a monkey's uncle. How come we are still importing 9.6 million with all that past development?


yes and during that period look at the increase in production in North America which of course offset imports. This isn't something like a tap that you turn on and off. It takes sometime to get there.
Look at US demand versus US production, there is a gap that is filled with imports. If prices were still high that gap would be closed pretty quickly and would remain closed until such time as declines caught up with new production. Nobody is drilling for new oil and gas now, they are producing what they have and they have some reserves drilled and waiting to be fracked.

to put this in a context closer to home at the risk of sounding pedantic...lets say you are someone who loves hot house tomatoes (if you live in a cold climate with a short growing season it is your best option for fresh). Now you believe in giving your business to local merchants so you weekly buy your tomatoes from the vendor at the local market. Unfortunately he screwed around on his wife and she is now sueing him and has frozen all his business with respect to his hot houses. Desperate you think.....I can either do without tomatoes for the next few months but damn it I want my weekly hit bruchesta and salsa so you go to the only other place you can buy those tomatoes the local box store which charges you 30 cents more per kilo but you don't care because damn it you need your tomato hit. Finally your local provider gets out of his law suit but by then the hot house has suffered and needs some investment to get it back up and running and the banks are reluctant simply because they see him as a serial womanizer and irresponsible. He will eventual have those tomatoes for you but it will take investment and time.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Jul 2016, 00:30:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o has anyone yet figured how we could have more untapped oil than any other country?


It doesn't. Venezuela and Canada have everyone else beat in the oil resources game, hands down.

Don't be such a sucker for everything you are told in the context someone ELSE wants to sell you. Think for yourself...when you finish up your "instruction" lessons anyway...
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 23 Jul 2016, 01:18:32

Look, the "unconventionals don't work" meme was trotted out prior to the shale boom. It turns out it does work, hence the glut. So you can't keep discounting unconventional. Report after report gives numbers 20-30 bucks or more lower for break-even than you cite. Unconventional IS economical within a range that supports BAU.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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