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Less choice, more convergence and consensus

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Timo » Sat 30 Apr 2016, 16:11:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'P')eople never fully appreciate what they have until it's gone. I'm not saying walking through a Wal-Mart is a transcendent experience, but the fact that all this stuff is at arm's reach for so cheap IS truly exceptional and will one day be the stuff of myth and legend.

First the snark. I hate the Walmart Empire. Always have. Always will. Never given them a dime of my money, ever. That's actually not snark, but the simple truth.

Second, having "all this stuff within arm's reach" is what is sinking the ship. Pondering the day when the stuff will be the subject of myth and legend is a bit of overreach, IMO. Going forward from this very day, more and more of this stuff, our stuff, will be the subject of curse and acrimony. We'll be looked back upon as the Age of Stupidity, and vilified for doing what we've done to the planet, and are continuing to do.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Apr 2016, 16:45:58

Yeah, I have never been one to shop for merchandise too shop especially not at Walmart which does not exist hardly in the NY area. I have always preferred to spend money on some activity like traveling etc. As for what we have, well some of what we have has been good for us first worlders, other stuff not so good like, some of the food, some of the addictive stuff and activities, lack of time, lack of nature, etc. So it is a mixed bag. To be truthful, I really like being here and being able to talk with others. Go figure.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 30 Apr 2016, 18:23:18

Future humans in a post-crash lifestyle may shake their fist at prior generations, but they will not have had to face the test of deciding whether to consume or not to consume. Odds are, even with the gift of hindsight, if thrown into that situation, they'd do just what we're doing rather than to live in voluntary austerity. They'll only seem morally superior because their consumption limits will be imposed by a broken ecosystem. It's like someone who loses weight only because of gastric band surgery. The willpower isn't there.

I just think it's natural for a human being to want to live at above one earth footprint. Whether he's entitled to or capable of doing so or not, it's what he wants to do.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 30 Apr 2016, 23:19:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
I think we may see two macro movements at play at the same time. The unglueing of the global economic system that will increasingly fail to hold itself together and the less complex world that follows will be more regional and the convergence and consensus will tighten within these regional populations.

So a tearing apart of a complex world due to declining energy, environmental chaos and population contraction. And then a coalescing and convergence regionally. Increasingly defined by the carrying capacity of consumption and population that each region can generate without external imports. This may actually take place gradually through several generations or more abruptly. Nobody knows.

I would not under estimate our global civilization though. There is still a lot of resiliency out there to send food to areas when drought strikes. To send teams of pathologists to hold back epidemics, for global powers like China investing in far off places. This is the glue that still holds our global civilization together. We require some pretty severe consequences to start the unglueing when nations increasingly pull back to reserve resources and investments to within their borders as a result of crisis.


I think there were regional convergences, but they involved feudal systems and empires, and led to conflict, slavery, etc.

Given the point that sending food to drought-stricken areas and investing in remote places involve business as usual (i.e., advantages in return for such), and that these require extensive levels of energy and material resources, then I think the problem isn't that we're underestimating globalization. Rather, we're underestimating the consequences of globalization.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 30 Apr 2016, 23:32:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
I am not sure that there was this oppressive sense of looming mortality. That may be your projection sitting in the here and now of our modern world where our expectancy of a long and stable life looks back on these times with this sense of oppression.

For those that were actually there and living without these assumptions there may not have been this sense of oppression.

Think of Mozart or Chopin, both died young living in a world where high mortality rates and disease was the norm. You do have to ask yourself if life back then wasn't more intensely lived, the uncertainty of a long life focused your powers of creativity and sense of being with a deeper vertical sense.

We live today long and shallow lives by comparison.

Or is this idea of a deeper vertical life just some romantic notion that I am projecting on to these past times?

Only the shadow knows!


I recall one article that pointed out that most people did not have access to music of Mozart, Chopin, and others during those historical periods because they did not have enough surplus energy and material resources to travel long distances often. Likely they also had little access to well-stocked libraries, books, museums, universities, and so on.

Given that, it's possible that their lives were strongly based on localization. That meant more emphasis on folk music, oral literature, local celebrations in connection to harvests, etc.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 01 May 2016, 07:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
I recall one article that pointed out that most people did not have access to music of Mozart, Chopin, and others during those historical periods because they did not have enough surplus energy and material resources to travel long distances often. Likely they also had little access to well-stocked libraries, books, museums, universities, and so on.

Given that, it's possible that their lives were strongly based on localization. That meant more emphasis on folk music, oral literature, local celebrations in connection to harvests, etc.


All true. Most people created in their local spaces culture, music, stories and celebrations without heavy material inputs. It raises the question about the balance of wellbeing and material inputs in any given culture. In reference to that balance I think there is a direct link between environmental degradation and modern human mental illness in how way out of balance our culture is regarding wellbeing and material inputs.

We think more material inputs equates with greater wellbeing. There is that point where greater material inputs fails to increase wellbeing and it is exactly where those excesses start that we also degraded our environment.

I mentioned in the past that humans do not manage abundance well. Will human culture ever develop a sophisticated set of taboos and governance to set boundaries that allow that proper balance of well being and material inputs? And will the consequences of our excesses force us to confront this question with wisdom at some point in our species future?
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 01 May 2016, 08:07:05

The perfect hologram for a soylent green system perhaps, a technology so convincing of digital eternity surrender of the body becomes like a bonus points scoring move in a video game.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 01 May 2016, 20:39:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
All true. Most people created in their local spaces culture, music, stories and celebrations without heavy material inputs. It raises the question about the balance of wellbeing and material inputs in any given culture. In reference to that balance I think there is a direct link between environmental degradation and modern human mental illness in how way out of balance our culture is regarding wellbeing and material inputs.

We think more material inputs equates with greater wellbeing. There is that point where greater material inputs fails to increase wellbeing and it is exactly where those excesses start that we also degraded our environment.

I mentioned in the past that humans do not manage abundance well. Will human culture ever develop a sophisticated set of taboos and governance to set boundaries that allow that proper balance of well being and material inputs? And will the consequences of our excesses force us to confront this question with wisdom at some point in our species future?


We have to keep in mind that your examples concerning Mozart and Chopin are based on the idea that their music would be appreciated by a wider audience. That required more material resources and energy. The same goes for being able to go to school, to access libraries and acquire books, visit museums, etc.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 04 May 2016, 16:06:17

The contented shall inherit the Earth—The glum? Not so much

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he survival of the fittest might just be the survival of the steadfast instead. Having a positive attitude could be evolutionarily advantageous, according to Cornell researchers who simulated generations of evolution in a computational model.

The findings offer scientific support to the ancient philosophical insights from China, Greece and India, which encourage cultivating long-term contentment or life satisfaction rather than grasping at the fleeting joy of instant gratification, the researchers said.

"In an evolutionary sense, you have to evaluate your life on the basis of more than what happened just now," said Shimon Edelman, professor of psychology and a co-author of the study. advantageous in a computational model that simulates evolution.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he "agents" or simulated actors that survived to produce offspring in the researchers' model were the ones that attached more weight to longer-term happiness than to momentary happiness, especially when food was scarce. They also "remembered" past happiness for a longer period of time than their less-successful counterparts. No matter whether food was abundant or scarce, the agents that had a more positive outlook - attaching more importance to upswings in their situations than to downswings - also were more evolutionarily fit. Their counterparts that gave more attention to short-term joy and a negative attitude died off.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]"It may indeed be advisable, at least under conditions of scarcity or adversity, to focus on longer-term well-being or contentment over momentary pleasures and to be less envious of one's neighbors. Also, in general, it may be wise to mark happy events more than unhappy ones," Edelman said.

The study "Between Pleasure and Contentment: Evolutionary Dynamics of Some Possible Parameters of Happiness," was published May 4 in PLOS ONE. Edelman's co-author, Yue Gao, is a doctoral candidate in the field of computer science.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 06 May 2016, 04:17:00

This is a Jimi Hendrix song from Axis: Bold as Love. It was in the movie Easy Rider, but only part of it. Unfortunately, YouTube does not have the full Jimi Hendrix version. Apparently a gazillion bands have done covers.


If 6 were 9
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, sing a song bro'...)
If the sun refused to shine
I don't mind, I don't mind
(Yeah)
If the mountains ah, fell in the sea
Let it be, it ain't me.
(Well, all right)

Got my own world to live through and uh, ha !
And I ain't gonna copy you.

Yeah (sing the song brother...)
Now if uh, six uh, huh, turned out to be nine
Oh I don't mind, I don't mind uh ( Well all right... )
If all the hippies cut off all their hair
Oh I don't care, oh I don't care.
Dig.

'Cause I've got my own world to live through and uh, huh
And I ain't gonna copy you.

White collar conservative flashin' down the street
Pointin' their plastic finger at me, ha !
They're hopin' soon my kind will drop and die but uh
I'm gonna wave my freak flag high, high !
Oww !

Wave on, wave on...

Ah, ha, ha
Fall mountains, just don't fall on me
Go ahead on mister business man, you can't dress like me
Yeah !

Don't nobody know what I'm talkin' about
I've got my own life to live
I'm the one that's gonna die when it's time for me to die
So let me live my life the way I want to
Yeah, sing on brother, play on drummer.



There is nothing that can be done about the ELE. It is certainly not acceptable to use it as an excuse for enforced conformity.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 06 May 2016, 07:45:14

My brother is obsessed with Jimi, since we were kids. He has collected every known recording of the guy doing anything, read every word ever written about him. He says Hendrix was a victim of mannequinisation- made to play a role & wear clothes he didn't really feel comfortable in etc to the point he lost himself. Combination of psychedelics & forced artistry, alcohol & barbs, pretty deadly.

My view on that part of history is that there was a break in the continuum of generations subsequent to WW1&2, particularly in countries most affected by the war then the boom & bust afterwards. As insight comes about not by worship of youth but by careful listening to the old, much of the world has been batshit crazy by every long standing branch of human philosophy, for generations. Things moving & changing so fast that the murmers of wise elders don't even rate as noise to the general populace, who are as gullible as children in marketing terms while self proclaiming based on Google wisdom. What they say about a rudderless ship.

Yet funny enough Guru Google might just lead back on itself. This is why Ibon keeps referring to the age of consequences testing what we have really become. So many take this angle as somehow a trigger for massive negativity, when it is based in the opposite combination of drivers- reverence for the wisdom of ages, the modern beauty concept being no more than a marketing angle on a figment of youth.

To people of many cultures & languages, it is said English is a very businesslike language & that cultures derived from English tend to be very materialistic when compared to any other. We tend towards reductionist quantification, whether talking about a romantic interest or a move in a game. We don't like being told how to or what to think. Leave the flowery language for pop songs & women's entertainment. How anyone might expect a consequence free emergence of a stable culture out of this? Meanwhile ever increasing cultural diversity in globalized cities, cultural dieoff elsewhere.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Timo » Fri 06 May 2016, 12:14:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') mentioned in the past that humans do not manage abundance well. Will human culture ever develop a sophisticated set of taboos and governance to set boundaries that allow that proper balance of well being and material inputs? And will the consequences of our excesses force us to confront this question with wisdom at some point in our species future?


Ibon, which human culture are you referring to? Humanity encompasses myriad cultures. Many of the world's current culture do quite well without material abundance. Others simply manage to survive without material abundance. Other cultures, as you correctly point out, do rather quite poorly with their material abundance.

I think this question defines the broader differences you and i have with regard to our visions of the future. I'll paraphrase to make the point quick and easy, but you seem to believe that at some point in the future, humanity will come to terms with the new limits forced upon them by the OP, AGW, SLR, and WTF. From my POV, "humanity" is too broad a term to even contemplate that possibility. Some parts of humanity may culturally evolve to fit your description of living within a state of equilibrium with the planet, but i don't see that happening for the majority of human cultures. The Norse and the Kirghiz have vastly different cultures, and their adaptations to each of their new realities will requisitely be different. The same chasm in cultural adaptations will exist between people in Minnesota, and people in Louisiana, and between people in D.C, and people in Melbourne. "Humanity" is a pretty diversified bunch. The effects of AGW will affect every culture differently because every part of the world will be affected differently. The impacts will not be uniform. Thus, those impacts cannot affect humanity in any conceivable uniform way. In addition, every human culture is starting from a different cultural baseline, each founded upon different traditions and beliefs, all of which will dictate how they will deal with the effects of AGW. I suppose it is theoretically conceivable that each and every individual culture will develop their own unique responses the the world's future crises, all independently arriving at their own, unique equilibrium with the planet. This scenario might even be what you envision occurring. It's even possible that the OP is so YUGE that only a few human cultures will remain, but the way i see it going down, some cultures will manage future crises better than others, and in the process of trying to survive, humanity will proceed to self-exterminate.

I'll be so brash as to offer a bet that i always make with my wife on all sorts of things, like the Stanley Cup, the Final Four, Hawking's next revolutionary quantum theory of black holes, and pointless crap like that. I'm already several million dollars in debt, so another million won't hurt me any. I'll bet you a million dollars that when all is said and done, after the OP has claimed its last victim, global temps have risen more than 6 degrees F, and global coasts have receded more than 5 miles inland, that i'm right. Chances are we'll both be dead when that moment arrives, but you'll still owe me anyway. Deal?
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 07 May 2016, 07:23:25

Timo

Up until now every civilization has simply consumed what was possible based on technology, environmental stability and resource extraction. As these parameters go up and down civilization adapts to what is possible. During times of abundance we are grizzlies during the salmon run, biting off the fat belly of the fish and tossing the rest aside. During times of constraints we chew the bones.

When I say we don't handle abundance well simply means that we do not have any self regulation mechanism culturally to consume in a measured sustainable way when resources are abundant.

The question really is if we will ever break out of this cycle or if civilizations will always just rise and fall matching closely the resource base available.

To manage wisely sustainable consumption we would have to constrain consumption and breeding even in times of abundant resources. To do that would require some kind of super state, something beyond the tribal level that we evolved within. Something that might really be impossible.

Unless consequences are so severe that they codify through taboos and laws an arrangement that falls outside the tribal one we evolved within. This is just pure conjecture and I agree, we will both be dead when this bet is won.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 May 2016, 07:45:47

I believe I have reached a point whereby my pessimism lies in the condition of the Earth and its ability to support complex life but my optimism lies in something akin to what Ibon stresses. Namely, that the immensity of the Ordeal we will pass through will shape humanity in the desired manner to allow it to evolve to a more enlightened stage consistent with its long term survival.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Timo » Sat 07 May 2016, 21:41:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')hen I say we don't handle abundance well simply means that we do not have any self regulation mechanism culturally to consume in a measured sustainable way when resources are abundant. ..........

To manage wisely sustainable consumption we would have to constrain consumption and breeding even in times of abundant resources. To do that would require some kind of super state, something beyond the tribal level that we evolved within. Something that might really be impossible.

Individuals can achieve this state of self regulation and forethought. Human civilization cannot.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 07 May 2016, 22:18:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')To manage wisely sustainable consumption we would have to constrain consumption and breeding even in times of abundant resources. To do that would require some kind of super state, something beyond the tribal level that we evolved within. Something that might really be impossible.


Right. And despite the fact that the internet has given everyone a voice, and it's possible to disseminate information about limits to growth, simply telling people these ecological truths does not get them to self-regulate. It goes in one ear and out the other. I support the efforts of activists like Bill McKibben, because at least they mean well, but I doubt any of it will amount to much. I think there's been more than enough awareness-raising for it to have accomplished something by now. It's going to be a day late and a dollar short as the frog boils in the pot.

This is why I'm so active in the EV thread, because I don't think anything constructive is likely to happen outside of green consumerism as that at least fits within the frame of BAU and progress that people can handle. Permaculture and powerdown and opting out of kids is a hard sell.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 07 May 2016, 23:36:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')imo

Up until now every civilization has simply consumed what was possible based on technology, environmental stability and resource extraction. As these parameters go up and down civilization adapts to what is possible. During times of abundance we are grizzlies during the salmon run, biting off the fat belly of the fish and tossing the rest aside. During times of constraints we chew the bones.

When I say we don't handle abundance well simply means that we do not have any self regulation mechanism culturally to consume in a measured sustainable way when resources are abundant.

The question really is if we will ever break out of this cycle or if civilizations will always just rise and fall matching closely the resource base available.

To manage wisely sustainable consumption we would have to constrain consumption and breeding even in times of abundant resources. To do that would require some kind of super state, something beyond the tribal level that we evolved within. Something that might really be impossible.

Unless consequences are so severe that they codify through taboos and laws an arrangement that falls outside the tribal one we evolved within. This is just pure conjecture and I agree, we will both be dead when this bet is won.


Very likely, such a "super state" will involve coercion and control, which in several ways is the opposite of what is shared in the OP.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 08 May 2016, 01:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'd')espite the fact that the internet has given everyone a voice, and it's possible to disseminate information about limits to growth, simply telling people these ecological truths does not get them to self-regulate. It goes in one ear and out the other.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'V')ery likely, such a "super state" will involve coercion and control, which in several ways is the opposite of what is shared in the OP.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '
')Individuals can achieve this state of self regulation and forethought. Human civilization cannot.


All three comments are related and are based on assumptions of human culture before the age of consequences.

The age of consequences may break each of these assumptions. It might make people chose to want to self regulate. The super state is just there to say that green is go and red is stop. All willingly then comply. What is it that traffic lights avoids? A crash. Well, consequences are likely to do just that, create a crash and then avoiding the cause of the crash may one day be embraced, not only by individuals but by civilization. And then it is not coercion and control but rather common sense willingly embraced.

A car crash is immediate, the kind of action that creates positive reinforcement to follow the rules of traffic lights. Systemic human overshoot as a concept is different than a car crash, it is not immediate and thus does not positively reinforce behavior. It has no power to modify behavior. But the consequences potentially do if they are properly understood. The lag time and complexity of the consequences make this very challenging, perhaps impossible. Unless consequences take on the same immediacy as a traffic accident.

Another way to see this is as follows. During stable and satiated times individualism blossoms and strengthens in a culture. If consequences hammer us hard enough human individualism becomes more subdued and cooperation rises in dominance.

You can witness this in less developed societies or in our own 100 years ago. More conformity, more sense of the commons, more willingness to embrace instead of question church, government, social hierarchies.

I only pose this as theoretically possible, I am not making claims that it will be so, but one day the consequences of human overshoot may well steer human culture in directions that surprise us.

Remember, a healthy biosphere is an invisible one. A damaged biosphere is very visible. Being visible means it acts on the collective.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 08 May 2016, 10:23:01

On this topic of consensus and conformity for the greater good.

Here is a bit of a twist to consider. The social conservatives that make up the Republican Party are pretty ardent anti environmentalists. Forget a moment abortion, gay marriage and all the other hot button issues and look to the deeper yearning of this movement. The consequences coming this century and the environmental ethics around eventually mitigating these consequences are actually perfect allies to these social conservatives in the synergy of the values they preach and the directions we must head toward; less consumption, more family and community focus, less hedonistic individualism, more respect to authority, etc. etc.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit.
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Re: Less choice, more convergence and consensus

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 08 May 2016, 11:56:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'd')espite the fact that the internet has given everyone a voice, and it's possible to disseminate information about limits to growth, simply telling people these ecological truths does not get them to self-regulate. It goes in one ear and out the other.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'V')ery likely, such a "super state" will involve coercion and control, which in several ways is the opposite of what is shared in the OP.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '
')Individuals can achieve this state of self regulation and forethought. Human civilization cannot.


All three comments are related and are based on assumptions of human culture before the age of consequences.

The age of consequences may break each of these assumptions. It might make people chose to want to self regulate. The super state is just there to say that green is go and red is stop. All willingly then comply. What is it that traffic lights avoids? A crash. Well, consequences are likely to do just that, create a crash and then avoiding the cause of the crash may one day be embraced, not only by individuals but by civilization. And then it is not coercion and control but rather common sense willingly embraced.

A car crash is immediate, the kind of action that creates positive reinforcement to follow the rules of traffic lights. Systemic human overshoot as a concept is different than a car crash, it is not immediate and thus does not positively reinforce behavior. It has no power to modify behavior. But the consequences potentially do if they are properly understood. The lag time and complexity of the consequences make this very challenging, perhaps impossible. Unless consequences take on the same immediacy as a traffic accident.

Another way to see this is as follows. During stable and satiated times individualism blossoms and strengthens in a culture. If consequences hammer us hard enough human individualism becomes more subdued and cooperation rises in dominance.

You can witness this in less developed societies or in our own 100 years ago. More conformity, more sense of the commons, more willingness to embrace instead of question church, government, social hierarchies.

I only pose this as theoretically possible, I am not making claims that it will be so, but one day the consequences of human overshoot may well steer human culture in directions that surprise us.

Remember, a healthy biosphere is an invisible one. A damaged biosphere is very visible. Being visible means it acts on the collective.


I don't think a "super state" is the same as "common sense."
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