[Revi]

I think this glut can last a little while longer. The oil being produced in Texas has plateaued and North Dakota is declining slightly, and that was the oil that really lifted the world higher. We'll see, but it looks like it might have hit a top and is declining now:

http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-decembe ... g-decline/


http://peakoilbarrel.com/texas-oil-prod ... a-plateau/

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')And my efficiency is doing the same things I did yesterday, except with less energy.
And presto! increased discretionary. Woo Hoo! And you think this is BAD? It isn't.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Money is also lost to the general economy when oil is purchased overseas; some $600 billion/year essentially disappeared when we were forced to purchase oil on the open international market at $100 barrel.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think this glut can last a little while longer.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')I'm not sure I would be thrilled with everyone taking what I'm saying today, and comparing to what I said a decade ago, and being able to show the 180 right to my face, or just how outright wrong I was. Some people can learn from their mistakes, but if all you want to do is repeat how right you have been all along, it would come in handy to have actually been right.

[Tanada]

When the Oil Minister of KSA speaks the international oil traders tend to pay close attention. We should too. Much more at link below quote.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he first phase of a long-anticipated industry recovery is underway as refineries on the Gulf Coast and around the world work through storage tanks of crude oil. The United States has a near-record stockpile of more than 530 million barrels, which could take months to cut down.

"The question now is how fast you will work off the global inventory overhang," said Falih, who serves as chairman of Saudi Aramco, the company that produces one out of eight barrels of oil the world consumes every day. "That will remain to put a cap on the rate at which oil prices recover. We just have to wait for the second half of the year and next year to see how that works out."

Boom and busts

In the first half of the decade, shale drillers in Texas and North Dakota put fracking in the nation's lexicon and led the United States to its biggest oil boom since the 1970s. But oil markets eventually became overstuffed as producers pumped more than 1 million barrels than the world needed each day.

For Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations, the surge in U.S. oil production proved shale drillers could respond faster to high crude prices than all but the lowest-cost producers – "a game-changer," Falih said, in the way the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries manages oil markets. Since November 2014, Saudi Arabia has refused calls by other OPEC nations to resume its role as the world's swing producer and cut its oil production in a bid to stabilize falling crude prices.

"The tools that OPEC has used in the past – targeting specific prices – have not always worked in the long term," Falih said. "They create market dislocations that ultimately hurt producers and consumers."

The Kingdom, which can profit off of oil even at low prices, opted to let market forces weed out higher-cost producers. U.S. oil production, driven by higher-cost shale plays, has dropped by more than half a million barrels a day since early 2015 and nearly 80 drillers have gone bankrupt."No matter what we do, ultimately markets win," Falih said.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'W')hen the Oil Minister of KSA speaks the international oil traders tend to pay close attention. We should too. Much more at link below quote.

[vtsnowedin]

If Saudi Arabia announced today that they would export no oil for less then $75 a barrel what do you suppose the price of Brent would be three days later?

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I')f Saudi Arabia announced today that they would export no oil for less then $75 a barrel what do you suppose the price of Brent would be three days later?

[ROCKMAN]

vt/sub - Rather difficult to predict especialy if you tie the price to a time line: 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, etc.

Regardless of the price the KSA demands the refineries aren't going to pay it and lose money. So then it becomes a question of supply vs demand with the consumers in the various major importing countries. Another complications: US refineries export products from 3 million bopd they crack everyday so that dynamic takes in much more then just the US market.

But as pointed out if there aren't enough buyers that can pay $75/bbl then global production will decline...unless someone sells for less then $75/bbl. Even if all the producers stick with $75/bbl the KSA may get less rervenue then they are getting today. As said many times before the producers can't force the refiners to pay more then they can justify just as the refiners can't forcer the consumers to pay more then they can justify. IOW if the consumers don't buy enough products made frtfrtom $75/bbl oil and all the sellers stick with that price production will decline. How much? No way to predict since no one predict how the consumers/economies would respond.

Or it's really no different then buying a new car: both sides come to a mutually acceptable price or the car stays in the lot. Or the oil stays in the ground.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I')f Saudi Arabia announced today that they would export no oil for less then $75 a barrel what do you suppose the price of Brent would be three days later?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I')f Saudi Arabia announced today that they would export no oil for less then $75 a barrel what do you suppose the price of Brent would be three days later?

[sparky]

.
everybody is pretty much saying the same thing
if the price is in the 100$ and there is jobs aplenty , no problem
if the price is in the low 40$ and everyone is on the dole there is a definite squeeze on demand
there is no issue with supply and demand , it ALWAYS balance eventually , it's not a dual system it is one system .

but independently of the world economy , geology is not listening , the easy cheap oil is depleted first
I've never been too enthused with the EROEI model ,
better to use the monetary cost of getting at the black stuff and keeping it flowing
it's a simple metric which encompass all the outlays , including the potted plants in the CEO office

[ROCKMAN]

sparky - I've never been too enthused with the EROEI model , better to use the monetary cost of getting at the black stuff and keeping it flowing it's a simple metric...". Not a bad position to take given that no well has ever been, or ever will, be based directly on EROEI. It might surprise folks but the drop in oil prices means that the EROEI of projects developed at the current level will be much higher then when oil was $90+/bbl.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
everybody is pretty much saying the same thing
if the price is in the 100$ and there is jobs aplenty , no problem
if the price is in the low 40$ and everyone is on the dole there is a definite squeeze on demand

[Plantagenet]

The 2014-2016 oil glut was basically caused by the large increase in oil production coming from US shale oil. Over 3 million bbls/day of new oil production came on the market in just a few years time and caused the oil glut.



Yes, it is possible to have an oil glut when demand falls and production stays flat, but that isn't whats been happening in the world markets over the last few years.

Cheers!

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he 2014-2016 oil glut was basically caused by the large increase in oil production coming from US shale oil. Over 3 million bbls/day of new oil production came on the market in just a few years time and caused the oil glut.

Yes, it is possible to have an oil glut when demand falls and production stays flat, but that isn't whats been happening in the world markets over the last few years.

Cheers!