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Doom do you want it to happen?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 13:14:28

Gee, I don't know about all that, maybe!

;)
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 16:06:56

I have been accused of a lot of crap over the years.

When I first found out about the coming threat, I thought informing others and helping people through their grief, so that they would be more effective when the time came, was the thing to do. I didn't believe this was a final doom, I figured with preparation some could survive and tried to put myself in a position to help.

But it wasn't to be, it was happening faster and more profoundly than anyone expected. We passed the critical threshold of preventing the methane release from starting, governments didn't act, organized resistance to doing anything developed.

Of course, once the methane started releasing, as well as the thawing of permafrost and the release of other greenhouse gases, we passed another threshold where the biosphere began reinforcing the warming itself, so even if we stopped what we were doing, it was too late.

The game changed. No point in urging action, there was nothing left to do that would prevent it, or even really postpone it for any significant amount of time.

Turned out we knew too little until it was too late. We really would have had to do something decades ago.

But we didn't.

From what we now know, over much of the planet, heat stresses will make survival of humans and livestock impossible for parts of the year, making those places uninhabitable.

Add to that much of the planet encountering water deprivation for parts of the year, most of the planet will be uninhabitable.

The most recent research is predicting 6-10C rises in temperature over most inhabited portions of the planet.

That is not survivable due to heat stresses, plain and simple. Let alone the inability of crop plants to adapt.

This is an Extinction Level Event.

There is no sane person who would want this to happen. But those that can't face the truth of it, accuse others of that.

This IS the end of human civilization. Probably the end of the current biosphere regime.

This ELE is comparable to the Permian-Triassic Extinction event. It took geological timeframes we cannot grasp in our minds to recover.

If that's too much for your mind to handle, that's totally understandable.

But reality is what it is.

I see no problem with others being in denial. It is how people cope. Especially now that there is nothing that can be done. Grasping certain extinction is not an easy thing.

So let those that can't handle it go on their merry way. I wish for most of humanity to live in ignorant bliss. To go on as if the world will continue as it has for generations to come.

There is no need now for others to know. I do not wish the burden of this knowledge on any more shoulders.

But I do want those that want to know to have access to the latest research, to have the knowledge they seek.

That is why I stand against those that would silence the truth if they could.

And Yes, I am certain to such a high percentage, it might as well be absolute.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 16:38:47

Blah, blah, blah. Go on your merry way, pstarr. I wish you only the most benign fantasies of a future for you and yours.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Lore » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 17:39:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'B')lah, blah, blah. Go on your merry way, pstarr. I wish you only the most benign fantasies of a future for you and yours.

Climate Change 2013
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nthropogenic warming will very likely lead to enhanced CH4 emissions from both terrestrial and oceanic clathrates. Deposits of CH4 clathrates below the sea floor are susceptible to destabilization via ocean warming. However, sea level rise due to changes in ocean mass enhances clathrate stability in the ocean. While difficult to formally assess, initial estimates of the 21st century feedback from CH4 clathrate destabilization are small but not insignificant. It is very unlikely that CH4 from clathrates will undergo catastrophic release during the 21st century (high confidence)

The thing is I want economic doom to happen and offset ecological doom. I want to see folks get out of their cars. In fact I worked my whole life to that end. And now that it is happening, it's a relief to know that it will stop climate change dead in its tracks. Happy day! :) You guys just want to see the planet and all the beautiful life on it fry. That's sad. :cry:


Speak for yourself. I would love nothing better then to know before I die that life on the planet will go on as it has.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 17:45:18

Yes, pstarr, everything will be alright, now go back to sleep.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 17:53:00

Cid, given your beliefs, why do you fall back into the battle of -isms? Communism vs. Capitalism and what not? What's the point? Is it just a way for you to pass the time?
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Timo » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 17:55:58

Cid, please don't take this as an insult because it most certainly is not intended to be offensive in any way. My comment on your lengthy post above seems well reasoned, but well reasoned within your own experiences, and are obviously, and self admittedly, not universally shared. Based on your own experiences and observations, you seem to have abandoned the concept, or label, or whatever you want to call it, of being a doomer. Good for you! I mean that. I would only add that reading your post, i think what separates you from the rest of us doomers our here in the etherweb is that you seem to have given up hope for the planet to survive in any meaningful way. That is not a criticism, but just an observation. If you have given up, well, sorry, but i haven't. I speculate that most other doomers also have not given up hope for our future. We all recognize that it will sure as hell be different from today, but what keeps me going on a daily basis is hope, and i will not give that up. I also hope that humanity worldwide does not give up hope for our future. Once you've given up hope for a better future, you're doomed to a self-inflicted prophecy of extinction.

You may very well be right, but i hope not.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:01:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The thing is I want economic doom to happen and offset ecological doom. I want to see folks get out of their cars. In fact I worked my whole life to that end.


OK, now we know your cognitive bias. So if runaway AGW "can't be so" because it would make you feel as though your life's work (getting people out of their cars) was wasted, as people proceed to just die off en masse instead.

This is exactly how I pigeon-holed you and you've just confirmed as much. You just fail to acknowledge that this bias colors your predictions. You just blindly double-down on these predictions anyway, ignorant of your own bias filters.

Now, to people who think I just troll or "pick on" doomers. Look at what I just accused PStarr of above. Am I really being unfair? You could say it's none of my business and I should just let people enjoy their personal reality distortion field, but isn't the whole point of being a doomer, the whole conceit, that doomers see the world as it is and not as they'd wish it to be?

At whatever point you are blinded by bias you're suffering from the same sort of delusions that cornucopians do. One is the mirror of the other at that point.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:04:54

Hope, Timo. And make the best of whatever time you have left, however long that may be.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:24:33

Ennui, I believe in a soul that persists and spiritual progression. I am a Christian, in that I agree with and practice in my life the teachings of Christ. Also of any spiritual teachings that emphasize compassion, love, and caring about the well-being of other souls that I meet in my life.

I see a great Evil in this world. By Evil I mean the antithesis to the above.

If there was ever a time to try to enlighten others, it is now. Call it 'saving souls' if you wish.

You may not agree with my methods, but they are mine.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:27:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'I')f you have given up, well, sorry, but i haven't. I speculate that most other doomers also have not given up hope for our future.


The pain of holding onto hope is seeing it melt away with the glaciers.

I mean, I've always been a big fan of Lord of the Rings and hope vs. despair is a big theme that runs through it. King Denethor sat by his Palantir and only saw the bad news until he went insane and committed suicide. It's similar to being a doomer and only reading Zerohedge and Desdemona Despair until you go the way of Mike Ruppert.

Image

The difference is there isn't any sort of deus ex machina that can intervene. I think PStarr's algae bloom narrative is an attempt at a deus ex machina. And ecotopians hinge their hopes on various magic technologies. It's all bargaining. I'm all for supporting positive measures anyway, but I am not going to get my hopes up to think any of them will "save" us. That way my hopes won't be dashed when they turn out to be too little too late.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:36:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Don't be psychoanalyzing me you self-regarding coward.


Bias doesn't invalidate or disrespect your passion, Pstarr. But bias is bias, and you're showing it, BIGTIME. Responding with ad homs doesn't help.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I have never in my thousands of posts made predictions.


You just did. You said peak-oil doom comes first and AGW fears are overblown.

You have a blind-spot a mile wide because you are so heavily invested in a cultural war against BAU that would be rendered pointless if AGW just ushers in a definitive mass-extinction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You are a fool mos/ennui.


More ad homs. This has turned into a pretty serious thread, Pstarr. Everyone's pretty much on their best behavior--except you. You keep claiming to take the high road, but you're basically just having a defensive temper-tantrum.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')what bias mos? That I don't agree with you that AGW doom is around the corner? That bias? That I do see the warning signs that resource depletion is ongoing and about to hit a wall. Including peak oil depletion? That is a bias? Is that the bias I have? Who called that a bias? You call that a bias? Get out of my face. If I get another warning I will know it is you whining at Tanada.


Yes. It's a bias. It takes a mature person to acknowledge that they don't have all the answers. You've latched onto a narrative that suits your political agenda. You are a greenie extremist who has been arrested over your activism. You've invested so much time and energy in culture-change that if we go over an AGW cliff then all of your efforts will feel like a waste. It doesn't take a degree in psychology to see how that might lead one to want to mentally cook the books to underplay AGW and overplay PO.

PO would provide a larger-than-life cattle-prod to FORCE the kind of culture-change you'd like to see in the world. It would have done what all of your activism couldn't accomplish. It's easy to see how you would mentally filter information in such a way to see PO as your own personal validation for your hard effort, and that you'd defend that prediction no matter how implausible the rationalizations necessary.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:42:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'C')id, given your beliefs, why do you fall back into the battle of -isms? Communism vs. Capitalism and what not? What's the point? Is it just a way for you to pass the time?


Cid has been at the end of the world game for a long time. It just WON'T end, so his disappointment is not a surprise. The idea that folks are still out buying cars, oil is cheap, natural gas is cheap, and people are out there working jobs, unemployment is down, I mean, you see how irritating it might be.

The problem with the methane hypothesis he likes is that the instant the planet burbs enough to notice, folks are going to do exactly what they ought to do with it. Why waste it allowing the atmosphere to turn it into CO2 when we can generate plenty of power with it first, and get the benefit of that instead of it just happening randomly? It will end up as CO2 anyway, and people being clever in this way, it is just a terrible waste letting it happen on its own.

https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library ... er2011.pdf
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:53:09

That's an incredible fantasy about me. Do you fantasize about me often? Creepy. Am I like your nemesis or something? :lol:

Unless you are a sock puppet there is no way you could have any idea about me 'for a long time'.
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:55:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 18:55:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'H')ope, Timo. And make the best of whatever time you have left, however long that may be.


It will be certainly longer than anyone here suspects...kick the can in the doomer game is now into what, millennium time frames? The Romans were pretty worried about that tin shortage a few thousand years ago, just imagine the horror the citizens would have jaw boned that one into while sitting at the Roman equivalent of a internet cafe, right? We were mostly supposed to collapses from peak oil back when reputable folks like Simmons and Deffeyes said it had happened in 2005...and look how well that turned out. Gasoline below $1/gal in the Midwest by summer perhaps?

http://www.freep.com/story/money/busine ... /80054386/

Hydrates? The mass conversion of those into power generating schemes will put shale folks out of business...tomorrow. No point in getting worried about something that valuable going to waste by just venting methane into the atmosphere. It will be providing synthetic crude for happy motoring by the end of the century, easy. Such is the way of technology, and hydrates are easy peasey compared to stuff like tar sands and the oil shales of the Green River basin.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 19:00:20

CID and Timo,

Just wanted to say I thought that was a nice exchange.

I get both points of view. I hear Cids analysis, I hope there is some flaw to it. But even with a flaw the I think we have other methods of assuring our demise, maybe not as throughly, but good enough.

External events such as a big meteorite strike or a nuclear war may interfere with our narrative. Not nice things to hope for, but such is life.
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Re: Doom do you want it to happen?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 19:00:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'T')hat's an incredible fantasy about me. Do you fantasize about me often? Creepy. Am I like your nemesis or something? :lol:

Unless you are a sock puppet there is no way you could have any idea about me 'for a long time'.


Are you kidding? You've been on this hydrate kick for like what...a decade now? And the rest of the world is trying to figure out how to power the planet with it, while your hope is just for it to end..something...everything? That'll sure save some souls, won't it?
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