[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.

[ROCKMAN]

vt - That's such a harsh and expensive climate to deal with I'm hesitant to make any prediction. I've only done a little bit of drilling in cold weather Wyoming. And that took longer and costs a lot more. And Alaska has to be much worse on both counts. A successful well we might party all weekend long over in Texas might be plugged and abandoned up there without a second thought.

[Alaska_geo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gordianus', 'I') am curious to know why production peaks in Winter and declines in Summer. Can someone enlighten me?

[Alaska_geo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.

[rockdoc123]

exactly Alaska_geo. I seem to remember some very, very expensive wells drilled in the area. Tight sands, lots of oil but access was by ice roads and limited to a few months a year. Exploration costs are huge and abandonment costs are not small. You need a very large field to be economic at the $80/bbl range (one of the companies I was with estimated 400 MMB) unless someone were to build all-weather roads....likely a no no in ANWR.

If there was an obvious porous reef anomaly on seismic (unlikely in this geology) or anticipation of some very porous deltaic sandstones here I suspect there would have been a bigger lobby to develop the area. The predictive geology doesn't fit that I'm afraid. Tough and limited access plus crappy reservoir equals not a lot of attention to my mind. But of course someone always has an idea that is different which is what makes this business so interesting.

[vtsnowedin]

I don't know a thing about the geology in and under ANWAR but I do know that the day a tanker pulls up to the loading buoy at KSA and the guy tells them they have to wait because all the tanks are empty the price will go up and as hard as it might be to squeeze oil out of ANWAR we will fully develop every plausible potential there.

[PeakOiler]

Thanks for your explanations for the reason oil production is higher in winter, Alaska_geo.

And for the record, I would prefer that the ANWR doesn't get drilled. I just think it's a matter of time.

[PeakOiler]

Below is the chart using EIA data through April, 2015:



I noted the production pattern in the chart is similar to last year y-o-y, except at a lower level. Any other players this year on guessing the annual low production rate?

[PeakOiler]

Updated chart with data through May:



May production was reported as 453k bpd.

What?! No other players in our little game of doom? Looks like it's just between vtsnowedin and I.

Again, any other guesses for this year's low monthly rate?

So far:
vtsnowedin: 340
PeakOiler: 367

[TheDude]

Warming speeds 'world's slowest moving landslides' - BBC News

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esearchers told BBC News that the geological features, known as frozen debris lobes, are now threatening a major highway.
The warming climate is said to have hastened some of the rocky fingers to a heady speed of five metres a year.
Engineers believe that either moving the roadway or freezing the ground may be effective solutions.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat good is the long tail if it is frozen tight in an abandoned pipeline?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat good is the long tail if it is frozen tight in an abandoned pipeline?

[vtsnowedin]

Somewhere along the line here I recall that all of the natural gas that has come up in the North slope has been pumped back under ground to help pressurize the wells and not waste it by flaring it off. So when the oil flow becomes un economic will they convert the TAPS to a gas pipeline and pressurize it into LNG at Valdize for the world market? By that time we will have sucked all the NG out of the North slope and oil prices should be high enough to develop any remaining reserves on the North slope with little regard to caribou herd numbers.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')omewhere along the line here I recall that all of the natural gas that has come up in the North slope has been pumped back under ground to help pressurize the wells and not waste it by flaring it off. So when the oil flow becomes un economic will they convert the TAPS to a gas pipeline and pressurize it into LNG at Valdize for the world market? By that time we will have sucked all the NG out of the North slope and oil prices should be high enough to develop any remaining reserves on the North slope with little regard to caribou herd numbers.

[PeakOiler]

Here's an updated graph with data through Sept., 2015:



How's the Dalton highway doing these days? It must be mostly repaired after the floods in 2013 and again earlier this year. I may browse the web for some news.

vtsnowedin: I think we may have seen the minimum rate for the year. Too bad there is about a 1/4 year time lag in the EIA data. We won't see the December 2015 number until March or April, 2016.

[PeakOiler]

Here's an update on the Dalton highway relief efforts, just released earlier this month:

ktuu article

There is a slide show.

[ROCKMAN]

Or as one of the responders to the story wrote: "This is why we need a change in Washington people. YOU keep paying for people who choose not to have insurance....If people choose to live beside a river that floods every year, then they need to move or get insurance. It is not the responsibility of the Federal tax payer to pay for people who ignore the truths of the places they choose to live."