[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')pdated graph with data through June:

[PeakOiler]

Updated graph with data through July 2016:



July was 422 kbpd.

[PeakOiler]

I came across this article today:
Alaska Dispatch Article

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n apparent sharp drop in projected Alaska oil output in the state's most recent production forecast is due more to a change in forecast methodology than underperformance of wells and fields, officials at the state Division of Oil and Gas said.

Under the new forecast released Dec. 14, Alaska will produce an average of 490,300 barrels per day in the current fiscal year instead of the 507,100 barrels per day estimated in the most recent previous estimate made last spring.

The estimates also reduced expected output for next year, in fiscal year 2018, the 12-month period beginning July 1, from an average of 488,800 barrels per day to 455,600 in the new estimate.
...
State Revenue Commissioner Randall Hoffbeck said the state expects the production decline will level out in future years because of new projects even if they are not included in the forecast.

"We are optimistic about several large developments that are not included in the forecast, including the Nanushuk discovery by Armstrong Oil and Gas and a discovery at Smith Bay by Caelus Energy," Hoffbeck said. If these projects proceed they could add 350,000 barrels per day, but their development will take several years.

However, for now the Department of Revenue's long-term forecast is for North Slope production to decline to 331,000 barrels per day by 2026, a volume that is near levels that could put the trans-Alaska pipeline at risk.

[Alaska_geo]

North Slope production (and hence TAPS throughput) is up slightly for 2016. Prudhoe Bay production stayed virtually flat. That together with modest increased production from other smaller N Slope fields led to the increase in total N Slope production.

See http://www.petroleumnews.com/pnads/527220083.shtml (Behind paywall, but you can likely find it with google in a week or so.)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')P held Prudhoe Bay field production virtually flat in 2016, a sharp improvement over annual declines averaging 4 percent to 6 percent in years past, company officials said in an interview.

Prudhoe is the largest field on Alaska’s North Slope and the leveling of its production was a major factor helping Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. actually boost throughput in the Trans Alaska Pipeline System by 1.85 percent last year, the first increase in decades for TAPS.

Alyeska confirmed Jan. 9 that total Slope production ticked up to an average of 517,868 barrels per day, up from an average of 508,446 barrels per day in 2015.

Prudhoe Bay’s production for 2016 was slightly down but by less than 1 percent. The field averaged 280,700 barrels per day last year compared with 281,800 barrels per day the prior year. Prudhoe produces about half of the oil moving through TAPS.
------------------snip------------------------
State Oil and Gas Division Director Chantal Walsh credited the Slope production performance to a number of factors including better-than-expected output of ConocoPhillips-operated CD-5, a new production site near the Alpine field, production from Drill Site 2S in Kuparuk, also by ConocoPhillips, and a coiled-tubing drilling program in Milne Point by Hilcorp Alaska.

[vtsnowedin]

It will be interesting to see what the Trump administration has for an effect on Alaskan production rates. Anybody have any insight as to what is possible if the oil companies are given free reign?

[Cog]

Opening up Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling is something Trump is likely to pursue.

[marmico]

COP may tap into TAPS 150,000 b/d by 2023.

http://alaska.conocophillips.com/newsro ... .FINAL.pdf

[PeakOiler]

Here's the updated chart with data through October, 2016. EIA reported 480 kbpd in October.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I')t will be interesting to see what the Trump administration has for an effect on Alaskan production rates. Anybody have any insight as to what is possible if the oil companies are given free reign?

[ROCKMAN]

An update on what has been done and what could be done in the future:

What Obama's Drilling Bans Mean for Alaska and the Arctic

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... -drilling/

[PeakOiler]

I wrote on April 14, 2015:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')<<snip>>
Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.

[ROCKMAN]

And we do recall that back when oil was $100+/bbl it was a D POTUS that approved future lease sales on the east coast and Arctic waters, don't we? And it was D POTUS that approved the permit that allowed Shell Oil to drill a well in the Arctic, right? And that it was D POTUS that offered more offshore acreage then any other POTUS in history, right? And that it was a D POTUS that approved new drill permits in the GOM in the same area asdasd the worse oil pollution nightmare in US history right? That more of the "dirtest oil on the planet" was imported from Canada when we had a D POTUS then during the term of any other POTUS, right?

And now that oil prices have fallen a number of govt pollicies have changed. I just get the sense that the price of oil has a greater impact on US govt actions then whether the POTUS is an R or a D.

Go figure. LOL.

[yportne]

Many years ago a single well was drilled in ANWR. Was it a dry hole? http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0 ... text6.html

[Tanada]

ROCKMAN how much drilling has taken place in the zone between the Wrangle mountains and Prudhoe Bay? There seem to be a lot of miles after you get out of the mountains and before you reach the sea, is that land all off limits or just has no sign of being viable for oil production?

[ROCKMAN]

T - I'm not familiar but found this:

"The Copper River basin sits in a lowland area due north of the Gulf of Alaska and bounded by the Alaska Range, the Wrangell Mountains and the Chugach Mountains. The geology of the basin bears many similarities to that of the Cook Inlet basin, especially in the Mesozoic section — during Mesozoic times the Copper River and Cook Inlet areas formed part of a huge marine region.

One Copper River Mesozoic limestone formation exhibits oil stains and petroliferous odors. Coal in one part of the section may have generated natural gas. The Tertiary section that occupies the basin is typical of rock of that age in Alaska, having terrestrial sediments interspersed with coal seams in a geologic setting conducive to the formation of biogenic gas — gas that has formed from the bacterial decomposition of organic material.

Some limited oil and gas exploration of the area was done prior to the mid-1980s, with geophysical surveys and 11 wildcat wells. Several of the wells encountered oil and gas shows. The wells also encountered overpressured zones, especially in a distinctive Mesozoic limestone horizon. Mud volcanoes in the Tolsona area emit gas containing a high percentage of methane. A more recent resurgence of interest in the area resulted in the issue of a State of Alaska exploration license in October 2000 to Anschutz Exploration, on 398,445 acres of state land west of the town of Glennallen.

After the shooting of some 2-D seismic in the exploration area, and following some shuffling of business deals around the funding of exploration activities, Texas-based Rutter and Wilbanks, with Anschutz and Forest Oil as minority partners, spudded a wildcat gas well on Native land in early 2005, in a structure near an Amoco well drilled about 25 years earlier. The Rutter and Wilbanks well, the Ahtna 1-19, was drilled to its target depth of 7,500 feet, apparently without finding any gas. But because of a high pressure zone at a depth of 1,200 feet, the company had to use heavy drilling mud that damaged a potential gas reservoir partway down the well.

In October 2005, with the original Glennallen exploration license set to expire, Forest Oil, the company that by then owned the license along with Anschutz, filed a successful application to convert part of the license area to standard state oil and gas leases in the neighborhood of the Native land where Rutter and Wilbanks had drilled the Ahtna 1-19 well. Anschutz and Pacific Energy Resources, the company that bought Forest Oil’s Alaska properties in 2007, still own these leases, but Pacific Energy has been trying to dispose of its Alaska assets in bankruptcy court in Delaware.

In the fall of 2006, Rutter and Wilbanks made an unsuccessful attempt to penetrate the damaged section of reservoir rock in the Ahtna 1-19 well, using a Cad Pressure Central snubbing unit. The company returned in 2007 to drill the Ahtna 1-19A sidetrack well into the reservoir using a Schlumberger coiled tubing unit. And in June 2007 the company announced a gas find at a depth of 4,300 feet. But the well was producing excessive amounts of water along with the gas, even though resistivity logs suggested that relatively little of this water originated in the reservoir. And Rutter and Wilbanks Vice President Bill Rutter Jr. was convinced of a significant gas resource in the Ahtna prospect, perhaps with a gas volume in the range 50 billion to 150 billion cubic feet.

So, after a two-year hiatus while the company tried to secure the use of a suitable drilling rig, Rutter and Wilbanks returned to Glennallen in the summer of 2009 with the Schlumberger coiled tubing unit to try to plug with cement the source of water flowing into the well bore and then drill a second sidetrack well. The idea was to determine whether gas could be produced without excessive water production and to evaluate the size of the resource. But, defeated by excessive downhole pressure and a continuing flow of water into the well, Rutter and Wilbanks finally gave up in late September, plugging and abandoning the well after something in excess of $20 million had been sunk into the Glennallen venture over the years. With no further Alaska exploration plans, Rutter and Wilbanks’ lease position in the state has now dropped from 1,580 acres to just 320 acres."

[Alaska_geo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yportne', 'M')any years ago a single well was drilled in ANWR. Was it a dry hole? http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0 ... text6.html

[Alaska_geo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'T') - I'm not familiar but found this:

"The Copper River basin sits in a lowland area due north of the Gulf of Alaska and bounded by the Alaska Range, the Wrangell Mountains and the Chugach Mountains. The geology of the basin bears many similarities to that of the Cook Inlet basin.......

[Tanada]

Any idea how saline that high pressure water layer is? Also any idea if Alaska allows produced saline water to be used for road spray like Ohio does? Regular saline solution is only good down to the upper teens so probably not as useful there as it is in Ohio. On the other hand there are a lot of gravel roads and spraying those with saline for dust control in summer is not exactly a new idea either.

[ROCKMAN]

Geo - Yep, the link I pulled that info from touches on those other areas:

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/88562045.shtml