[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')he doomers often say: "We can handle P.O. technically. It's the fear and hysteria that's going to cause the collapse."

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')The last thing the U.S. needs to do right now is start a huge fucking world war. They don't have the fuel or the money to win it, and they will get their ass kicked.

[El_Producto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'C')hina has problems with oil supplies too. In fact, just about everybody's got problems with fuel supplies. Based on what has happened in the past few years, I'd say Uncle Sam is getting ready for it. The old debts and trading arrangements will give way to alliances of war. The alliances will be determined by strategic assessments and calculations of survival prospects by the remaining oil-exporters. For instance, when the hostilities ratchet up to the hotter levels, you might expect a coup in Venezuela by those who are afraid of antagonizing the US. You might find UAE and Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries coming out clearly for the US because they don't think China will be able to prevail. Everybody flocks to the percieved winner. No War necessary. Game Over. (in this light, the mere fact that the US is fighting in Iraq is enough to show that the US side is the one to be on. The only wild-card I see here is US domestic public opinion and politics)

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', ' ')In fact, just about everybody's got problems with fuel supplies.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('El_Producto', '
')Yeah, but thats the absoloute best-case scenario for the United States. Can you imagine if the rest of the world smelled blood, and the US had to win several fast campaigns against numorous oil producing countires? Mobilising quickly and in every situation having to go in outnumbered, needing a huge tactical victory in the first few days of the war?
.

[El_Producto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '
')Well, it looks to me like China is arming as fast as they can and they are the only ones who could challenge the US if War breaks out.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I') would like to know how many of you who initially discovered "Peak Oil" did not feel fear and dispair.

Maybe you have a plan of action now, but if you tell me you do not still feel fear, then I tell you that you are a liar.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') Is the U.S., going to simultaneously kick ass on China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'T')he projection of power is still respected as it always has been.

[PenultimateManStanding]

True, JD. But China is in the same jam. In WWII the US was a military power that had plenty of oil. If China had lots of oil now, then they would have a big advantage. Instead, what they have is a lot of consumer-goods manufacturing plants and a pile of foreign currency reserves which may turn out to be worthless in the Post Peak world. This situation may be lose-lose for everybody, but if a resource war does loom, then there will have to be some kind of outcome and my thoughts posted here could be the way it plays out. After all, the US does have the miltary hardware now, and China is playing catch-up. Plus the US miltary R&D is way ahead, at this time. Kind of makes the next 12 months seem spooky, doen't it? Things seem to be coming to a head.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'B')ut China is in the same jam. In WWII the US was a military power that had plenty of oil. If China had lots of oil now, then they would have a big advantage.

[PenultimateManStanding]

I'm no more hung up on China than you apparently are hung up on taking America down. China is aggressively trying to counter American military might with a force of its own. They are out for their own interests there is no reason why I should expect them not to do so. The point is that they are in a position to do so where nobody else is. So its just a matter of discussing what the future may hold in store. Your chess analogy is a good one, maybe you could come up with some slick moves for us to discuss instead of empty emotional rhetoric.

[Ayoob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'B')ut China is in the same jam. In WWII the US was a military power that had plenty of oil. If China had lots of oil now, then they would have a big advantage.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'J')D,

Please go pound sand up your ass.

Thank you.

-Everybody

[I_Like_Plants]

Much of the rest of the world "ganging up on" the US is a very easy to imagine scenario, after all, that's how the Nazis and Japanese were beat in WWII. Deprive 'em of resources, keep 'em fighting, and watch 'em collapse.

[Macsporan]

What about fear of fearing the fear of fear? Why doesn't anyone talk about that, hey?

Or fear of fearing the fear of fearing the fear of fear?

Well???

[gego]

One interesting thing that I once read was that fear is a defense against shock. Shock is much more harmful to the body plus it has a tendency to freeze our response to danger. Fear helps us to better respond to known danger, so I would say that it is better to be fearful of peak oil consequences rather than to be unprepared and be shocked by them.

Roosevelt may have thought his little line was catchy, but it seems to have little meaning.

[Doly]

The difference between fear and panic is that if you're frightened, you think there's something you can do about it (if only to run away). If you are panicking, you think there's nothing you can do. I read once that panic is the response that happens when you've tried the rational answer, and the rational answer doesn't work, so you go irrational.

Let's hope the world doesn't go into collective panic.

[Zentric]

JohnDenver -

I believe I understand what you are fighting for. To summarize, and correct me if I'm wrong, you believe the structure of America is broken, as is the role it is supposed to be playing on the world stage. That the people inside the country are misguided, but, still, in spite of it all, they should be saved from the horrors that are in store.

The structure of America should be about the Constitution and compassion for humanity. But we've gone badly astray.

We should be projecting our high ideals to others in foreign lands, but we're failing now even at doing this domestically.

We consume too much, and we are structured only to consume more, and the finances and resources required for this to continue are destined to bring about domestic and worldwide misery. But we can't stop ourselves!

A world wide massive die off is unacceptable to you - and bravo to you if that is what you truly believe because it is not a foregone conclusion - even though now this does seem likely.

That if we find a way to radically change our leadership (where the business as usual demos and repubs are all terribly, terribly suspect in my opinion), implement a few austerity measures to effectively allow many of us to chill out at home and not waste resources, and without severe hunger or financial penalty for doing so, then maybe the country and the globe can avoid catastrophe.

Amnesty for the plutocrats, politicians and middle management suck-ups who led us to where we are now? Uhhhm, maybe.

Explain to the born again Christians that Armageddon may have to be postponed another several years? Myself, I know of no rational person who would qualify as a 'messenger' to these people. Not entirely incomprehensible though.

Introduce an ethical and pragmatic means to ramp down the human population? Third rail, man. Good luck.

All in all, you're making progress, John. Please let the debate continue.

[alpha480v]

It's interesting to listen to all the arm-chair general talk that is going on in this thread about what might,or might not happen.The bottom line is,no war for resources on a global scale is going to be conducted by the United States without a draft in place.We simply do not have the manpower.This fact alone makes all these scenarios irrelevant.