[Bandidoz]

Is it my imagination or has JohnDenver changed his tone over the past year?

[jato]

Thanks John! Welcome aboard! IMO that was the best post you have ever written.

[khebab]

I find that this quote from Bringing Ingenuity to Energy by Thomas Homer-Dixon says it all:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ealthy capitalist economies rely upon ferociously high rates of consumption of goods and services; this tends to discourage a transition to a green economy whose principal aim is to lower the throughput of energy in the economy. Understanding this obstacle requires a short digression on the nature of modern capitalism. Competition among firms encourages relentless technological innovation that in turn steadily boosts labour productivity: as companies try to win in a Darwinian marketplace, they often replace relatively expensive labour with new technologies. This means that an individual worker can produce more for the company, but it also means that redundant workers are laid off. In order to prevent this pool of technologically displaced labour from becoming too large and both a drag on the economy and a source of social unrest, new jobs must be created through economic growth. In other words, as some sectors of the economy use less and less labour, new sectors and enterprises must be created to absorb the displaced labour. And if these new sectors and enterprises are to prosper, there must be sufficient economic demand for their products.

Capitalist societies are therefore constantly engaged in demand creation. They must socialize their citizens to be insatiable consumers (the "walking appetites" of the neoclassical economic model discussed above). Advanced capitalism can only survive if it generates constantly rising material expectations and, in turn, chronic material discontent within the economically active population, despite increasing material abundance.

[Tyler_JC]

And the meek shall inherit the earth...

Karl Marx was saying the same stuff 150 years ago. His solution clearly doesn't work, what's ours?

[Doly]

I keep trying to understand economics but every time I fail. I wonder if there is any way of putting all this into a list of pretty equations, because I understand equations. Something like:

Government money = this + that

and so on...

Can anybody here do it?

[nero]

I like your quote Khebab, however I know of one peak oil scenario the author isn't considering. He is basically saying we must increase consumption because of overall increasing productivity. That is fine but one of the corollaries of peak oil is that eventually the oil industry will experience decreasing productivity. In that situation there can be no growth and still full unemployment as the displaced workers migrate over to the oil sector. As a concrete example I would think of the inshore Newfoundland fishermen who moved to Fort McMurray and took jobs in the oil sands sector. They lost their jobs because of factory-freezer trawlers but then found jobs as the price of oil increased and made the oil sand's relatively labour intensive oil economic.

[Bandidoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') keep trying to understand economics .....

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') keep trying to understand economics but every time I fail. I wonder if there is any way of putting all this into a list of pretty equations, because I understand equations. Something like:

Government money = this + that

and so on...

Can anybody here do it?

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')It will be almost impossible to stabilize growth, and I don't think peak oil will stop it. We'll just switch to the other fossil fuels and uranium, and tear through them too at an accelerated rate. That's plan B, and it'll probably keep the economic status quo propped up for another 50-75 years. At that point, though, things may get really dicey. There's plenty of room for failure.

[Dezakin]

JohnDenver:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow it may be that we will discover something in the decades of breathing room which the other fossil fuels will buy us. But it may be that we won't, and cornucopians need to take that possibility seriously. Maybe fusion won't work, and massive breeder fission is too dangerous, and the only real option left is a last ditch effort at space energy, where we have to struggle like the devil to save ourselves. We need to hold energy in reserve, to prepare for that contingency.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'T')hanks John! Welcome aboard! IMO that was the best post you have ever written.

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') still don't see any space options...

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd the meek shall inherit the earth...

Karl Marx was saying the same stuff 150 years ago. His solution clearly doesn't work, what's ours?

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'J')ohnDenver:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow it may be that we will discover something in the decades of breathing room which the other fossil fuels will buy us. But it may be that we won't, and cornucopians need to take that possibility seriously. Maybe fusion won't work, and massive breeder fission is too dangerous, and the only real option left is a last ditch effort at space energy, where we have to struggle like the devil to save ourselves. We need to hold energy in reserve, to prepare for that contingency.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'T')he reason I can't take it seriously is just looking at the numbers its just silly. Breeder reactors have been running, some for years or decades at a time.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'H')e is basically saying we must increase consumption because of overall increasing productivity. That is fine but one of the corollaries of peak oil is that eventually the oil industry will experience decreasing productivity. In that situation there can be no growth and still full unemployment as the displaced workers migrate over to the oil sector.

[jaws]

My favorite definition for economic growth is the Austrian school's. They describe economic growth as increases in productivity resulting from investment. The current U.S. economy, using this definition, is exhibiting very little economic growth. During an energy decline, productivity will plummet as investments previously made with expectations of energy abundance turn out to be useless (malinvestment in the Austrian framework). Eventually falling productivity will hit a bottom as investments made with expectations of energy scarcity will come online, resuming economic growth.

[I_Like_Plants]

We have a grow-or-die economy and monetary system.

This works because those who set it up, only care that it results in a good portion of money gets sent to their headquarters (Israel)

However, when PO happens, grow or die + shrink = die.

that's when we have to be ready to set up a non debt based monetary system

Right now the most practical system is the Gold Dinar and the most rational banking/lending system, in place now and working and ready to adopt, literally tomorrow, is Islamic Banking.

Too bad, being a Christian country, we've not been able to shake off the userers and set up something on our own, eh?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')f productivity increases without economic growth, then unemployment must increase. It looks like there's a good equation in there.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', '.')........

Right now the most practical system is the Gold Dinar and the most rational banking/lending system, in place now and working and ready to adopt, literally tomorrow, is Islamic Banking.

.........