[Newfie]

Plant et al.

I never said the CDC was doing a good job, or that Obahma was. I'm saying that this isn't a democrat/Republican issue. It's is an articaft of human nature and our particular culture and political system.

In fact I commented that one of the likely outcomes will be a change in our political system towards a more authoritarian leadership style and further embracing of police state tactics. How far that will go is the question.

I am already see here and elsewhere an embracing of those changes.

The 2016 election will be interesting.

[Newfie]

Yesterday my Wife read of how the Brits handle these infectious cases. It seems they have a tent like contrivance that fits over the bed. It has sewn in arms and viewing ports so that the medical staff can work in relative comfort. It also has a fan to create negative pressure inside the tent and filter the air coming out.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/1 ... d-Standard

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'P')lant et al.

I never said the CDC was doing a good job, or that Obahma was. I'm saying that this isn't a democrat/Republican issue. It's is an articaft of human nature and our particular culture and political system.

In fact I commented that one of the likely outcomes will be a change in our political system towards a more authoritarian leadership style and further embracing of police state tactics. How far that will go is the question.

I am already see here and elsewhere an embracing of those changes.

The 2016 election will be interesting.

[Cid_Yama]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', ' ')I'm saying that this isn't a democrat/Republican issue.

In fact I commented that one of the likely outcomes will be a change in our political system towards a more authoritarian leadership style and further embracing of police state tactics. How far that will go is the question.

I am already seeing here and elsewhere an embracing of those changes.

The 2016 election will be interesting.

[Newfie]

It crossed my mind this morning that another consequence is the breakdown of what's left of news organizations.

I'm at rating to anticipate that the news will be so bad as to be useless in estimating the degree of infection in your hometown.

My Wife and I came up with some rough numbers that basically said once we have 100 infections in Philadelphia we will then have 3 months to get out of town. Now I'm thinking, will we be able to do that evaluation?

The problem I am seeing is it will be almost impossible to tell how many are infected at any given point.

This is a combination of hysteria, fear mongering, suppression, and no professional vetting of facts.

[ROCKMAN]

Sub - "My secondary fear...". Exactly. That's the point I was making: creating a fear driven crisis that doesn't have a basis in reality. And yes: the mortality rate from the flu is much lower. But the probability of remaining dead from the flu is 100%. LOL. We can make all kinds of analogies. If I shoot you in the head the probability of death is pretty high. But if you're standing 2,000 meters away and TODAY I take the shot at you with the appropriate round and the help of a good spotter your probability of death is very, very small. (BTW 40 years ago, before my MS screwed up my hands, you might not have been as lucky. LOL). OTOH if you in the mall with a couple of thousand folk and a wacko comes in with revolver and only 6 rounds the probability of you taking one to the head (i.e. the mortality rate) is very, very small.

So to finish this goofy analogy: if you'd in a city with a couple of million folks and there's a report of some wacko with bad hands taking occasional 2,000 meter shots at people are you going to hide under your bed? But if you're at the mall and you know that a wacko has only 6 rounds (thus you chances of taking one is very, very small) are you going to keep shopping?

So do you get my point now? If so please explain it to me: I got lost somewhere in my analogy. But is sounding so good I stuck with it. LOL.

[Newfie]

Sure, the way we perceive fear is subjective, not rational.

Go to Home Depot and they jump through great hoops to move a man lift. Bells, flashing lights, ground man next to it.

Leave to go home and you drive 75 mph down a highway with drunks coming at you at 150 mph, we think nothing of it.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')ub - "My secondary fear...". Exactly. That's the point I was making: creating a fear driven crisis that doesn't have a basis in reality. And yes: the mortality rate from the flu is much lower. But the probability of remaining dead from the flu is 100%. LOL. We can make all kinds of analogies. If I shoot you in the head the probability of death is pretty high. But if you're standing 2,000 meters away and TODAY I take the shot at you with the appropriate round and the help of a good spotter your probability of death is very, very small. (BTW 40 years ago, before my MS screwed up my hands, you might not have been as lucky. LOL). OTOH if you in the mall with a couple of thousand folk and a wacko comes in with revolver and only 6 rounds the probability of you taking one to the head (i.e. the mortality rate) is very, very small.

So to finish this goofy analogy: if you'd in a city with a couple of million folks and there's a report of some wacko with bad hands taking occasional 2,000 meter shots at people are you going to hide under your bed? But if you're at the mall and you know that a wacko has only 6 rounds (thus you chances of taking one is very, very small) are you going to keep shopping?

So do you get my point now? If so please explain it to me: I got lost somewhere in my analogy. But is sounding so good I stuck with it. LOL.

[vox_mundi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '.').. My Wife and I came up with some rough numbers that basically said once we have 100 infections in Philadelphia we will then have 3 months to get out of town. Now I'm thinking, will we be able to do that evaluation?

The problem I am seeing is it will be almost impossible to tell how many are infected at any given point.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'I') pledge allegiance to the will of the corporations of America
and to the Rich for whom they stand
one nation
under oppression
with misery and poverty for all

[Sixstrings]

And I'll tell you another thing --

All of these guys are *too meta* and don't have common sense.

For example, the President said that a reason to not stop the flights is that people would just fly to other countries and route their transit here through a backdoor.

So ergo, Obama doesn't stop tourist visas and flights from Liberia.

But that makes no sense -- OF COURSE those flights should be stopped. Sure, maybe a few would find another way in but you know what? Guys like the one that came here to start with, *he probably couldn't have afforded multiple tickets around the world to see his gf in the US.*

You'd stop A LOT of people coming in, with ebola, by just stopping the easy direct flights.

It's like -- there's a leak in the boat, and Obama won't plug the leak because he says water will just come over the sides anyway.

Can you all at least agree with me on this? The flights should be stopped?

If they'd already stopped the easy flights then that guy never would have come to start with you know? And those nurses wouldn't have ebola, and goodness knows how many more by now.

It's like -- not locking your front door just because a window in back is unlocked. Well for crying out loud, it still helps to at least lock the front door right?

[Sixstrings]

Putin orders all students from west africa be under health monitoring:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://cdn.rt.com/files/news/30/10/40/00/russia-ebola-preventing-airports-students.si.jpg[/img]
Russian govt orders extra airport facilities to prevent Ebola
http://rt.com/news/196868-russia-ebola-airports-screening/

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')estruction of government (except military) is a religious passion for the far-right authoritarian Corporatocracy. Government strangulation and manufactured incompetence (through budget cuts) is the strategy. Unwitting republican voters are the tools

[GoghGoner]

If the cases continue to double every three weeks, then the number of Ebola carriers out of the three affected countries will increase to. The cost to isolate, track, and care for the patients is too great for other countries to allow this happen frequently. My guess is that any country where Ebola is not being controlled will be isolated. Of course, global capitalism abhors isolation so there are competing interests at play.

Really isolation was the game plan with Ebola before, it only changed when it became impossible to isolate entire metro areas. There will have to be military personnel involved to keep people in. Heaven help them with supplies if that does happen because I don't see the global community stepping up on that massive of a scale. I have no idea how long it takes before it runs its course. I think if it is true that sex transmits the virus well after a person has recovered, I don't know how these countries get rid of it quickly.

Another thing that has bothered me about this outbreak is why are so many health care workers affected. My guess --> It is when the patient is close to death bodily fluids are flying around everywhere with dense concentrations of the virus. So I wouldn't worry too much about catching it from somebody with a fever on an airplane, I would worry more if a person was deathly ill recently on the airplane.

DISCLAIMER: I have no crystal ball and I am just as stupid as the rest of the apes so my opinions on the future are probably wrong.

[Sixstrings]

Just to backpeddle a bit on my own alarmism, here's some things to keep in mind:

1) The army has begun ebola vaccine human trials. There could be a vaccine within months, so that's good.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S begins Ebola vaccine testing in humans
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/10/14/us-begins-ebola-vaccine-testing-in-humans/

[Plantagenet]

6--I apprciate that you've become more optimistic about ebola. I was thinking about it today and I became more pessimistic. Here's why:

1. The contamination rate for each infection in Africa is about 1.5---i.e. each Ebola victim is thought to contaminate about 1.5 more people. But the one known case in the US has already contaminated 2 people, with 800 more being tracked or in self-quarantine or under observation. Just today we heard that 4000 people just spent a week on a cruise ship with one of the nurses from Texas. It may well be that people in the US are so much more mobile then people in Liberia that our infection rate maybe more than 1.5 to 1. Maybe it will turn out that the mew infection rate in the US is 2 or 3 to one. That would make EBOLA spread even more rapidly in the US then in Liberia.

2. Obama and the CDC keep telling us there is nothing to worry about because our health system is so great. All they do in Liberia is stack the victims up on a clinic or leave them at home to die. Here, we mobilize an entire hospital to treat one person. The victim in Texas had 70 hospital staff dealing with him. But maybe the complexity and people intensive nature of our hospitals will actually lead to more infections then the see in Africa (see #1 above). Each of those 70 staff people in Dallas who came in direct contact with the Ebola patient are now at risk of an Ebola infection, not mention people who do the blood samples or empty the trash or who wash the HAZMAT suits.

[vox_mundi]

Just to deflate your balloon a bit regarding that vaccine.

It's just in Phase 1 right now. To get a drug from Phase 1 to Phase 3 generally takes 7-10 years. If you rush it, and disregard all the regs. and safeties it might take 12-18 months. If Everything Works Perfectly

Then production needs to be geared up to make billions of doses, which might take another 6 months.

You can't skip steps in this process. Otherwise, you'll end up with a drug or vaccine with about as much efficacy as a syringe full of something pulled out of a toilet bowl.

I've worked on Phase 1 & 2 trails and this is not B.S.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '1'). The contamination rate for each infection in Africa is about 1.5---i.e. each Ebola victim is thought to contaminate about 1.5 more people. But the one known case in the US has already contaminated 2 people,

[Sixstrings]

Some interesting questions..

If this thing starts to spread a lot more, then wtf will we all do this flu season every time we have a darn fever?

If it's ebola, you gotta catch it early and get on treatment early to have a chance of making it.

So what then, ER's get all filled up with everyone that's got a fever? And then maybe you just catch ebola there in the ER from someone that really does have it?

Second question..

If a vaccine becomes available -- would YOU let ebola get shot into you? I guess it would be safe, vaccines are "dead" viruses right? Still though.. I couldn't do that.. I think I'd have to wait and see if everyone else is taking the vaccine and see what happens to them first.

I never even do flu shots, ever. People I know that get flu shots always wind up getting the flu, I don't take the shots and I never get the flu.

This would be a tough call.. if the vaccine comes out but it's not really tested.. do you take the vaccine, or not. And if Vox is right, that would be years from now, and either it's too late by then or this ebola is still lurking and we all have to decide to take the vaccine or not.