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Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Pops » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 15:51:05

Now, now.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Newfie » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 16:21:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'H')ow to make a zombie horde ( or hoard :-D )

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1941621778


I'm surprised this hasn't been done sooner. There is a VERY limited supply of transformers on hand. Normal failure is a real problem. Lead times are horrendous. Manufacturing capacity very limited. Lots of specialization. A few dedicated souls could do great harm.

I don't want to talk about technical details, no point in being accused of giving ideas to bad guys, but this was a pretty unsophisticated attack, showing a lack of understanding or efficiency. It could be much worse.

So let's say the outage lasted 2 to 4 weeks in your geographical area. Rural, suburban, or urban. How would you cope?

I know I could.



It mostly depends on the time of year, if it were winter during one of those arctic cold snaps a lot of people in cities like Toledo and Detroit would freeze to death simply because without electricity modern gas furnaces will not function and tall buildings without electricity and thus no water and no elevators are very hard to live in.


Or worse, with water, that freezes and bursts lines. But a summer heat wave would also be no picnic.

I'm not into TOTAL self sufficiency, but I do think cities, while they have their attractions and advantages, can also be death traps.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby sparky » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 18:03:02

.
The grid crashing is a very real prospect ,
however the most probable result would be some part staying up
it depend how the safeties would activate , the total demand and the inter regions flow of power

A serious crash in the North East US is quite possible ,
all the generating plants would have to shed load super fast , they would probably crash down
restarting them is a long process , in some case they need other plants to restart first to boost them
a serious crash would take some days to re-energize some sections and probably a couple of weeks
to get everything up and running
this suppose the safeties protected the High voltage switching gear , the lines and the transformers

the breakers switch are the most vulnerable ,
it is them which would do the main work of tripping on load
transformers are quite robust , it would take some sabotage to damage them

it is true it take a lot of time to make them , it's a very specialized field
at work we have trannie which is shorting inside , the oil analysis tend to indicate it will fail soon
the manufacturer told us the delivery time for a new one is four months and it's only a 2 mW 20.000 V
that's a baby
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Loki » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 21:15:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'P')retending there is a dichotomy when there is none is an excuse to do nothing it seems to me.

It's the binary thinking that annoys me. These, apparently, are the choices: "Total self-sufficiency" (whatever that means) or "why bother." Dumb.

As I said earlier, it's possible to practice a degree of self-sufficiency in the city. I used to ride my bicycle to the community garden, my hoe and shovel strapped to the side, buckets on the back for the harvest.

Living in the city is no excuse to keep one's head in the sand. It's not even a city vs. country thing, it's really more of a mindset. Being in the country just makes it easier, and in a lot of cases, forces you to do it yourself (or it doesn't get done).
A garden will make your rations go further.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Narz » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 21:46:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'H')ow do you make a "Zombie horde"? Have the ATMs stop working, the banks close and the government checks and direct deposits stop coming. How much cash do you have on hand?
Cities depend on food and water being delivered daily and that takes both transport fuel and money. Cut off the electricity , close a few bridges and close the banks and you have shortages and panic in three days or less. Instant Zombie Horde. The cops will be hungry too and will be some of the worst of the Zombies as they are armed have backup communications and the color of authority.
I think survival chances are much greater in the country especially for those that live there and know how to raise and process their own food and energy supplies. You can't chop wood in town or butcher a pig that isn't there.

Why would the bridges be closed in a disaster like that? People will shoot their way out?

If I thought a scenario like that was likely in the next 10 years I wouldn't stick around of course.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Narz » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 22:06:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'Y')ou're tilting at strawmen, LOL. There is a whole spectrum of people in this world and you are focusing on a tiny sliver in order to justify doing nothing - even though you obviously understand that things can and may well change.

It doesn't garner you many allies (except among the choir perhaps) to say that anyone who's not doing things your way is "doing nothing".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ut a generation back, what is now called "prepping" was simply day-to-day. My folks always had a garden, always preserved food, always tried to repair their stuff, always did for themselves. Of course they were the "Joads" but just the generation before they were Texas/Oklahoma wildcatters. The point is, fortunes can change on a dime, and external circumstances can turn upside down overnight.

Pretending there is a dichotomy when there is none is an excuse to do nothing it seems to me.

I'm as prepared as is practical right now. Our fellow posted, PenultimateManStanding for instace, bought 10-grand worth of supplies, probably alienating himself from his family & friends & coming across as a loonie, not to mention I don't think he was so rich to be spending that kind of money.

I wonder how much of that food went bad or if he still has it.

If you enjoy gardening or maintaining a root cellar as a hobby I say go for it, maybe it'll do you some good. I dunno, I keep a fair amount of food/water handy & try to live my life. Maintaining connections/support/resources in the here & now is more important to me though than preparing for a million different futures. Worst case scenario I'm dead anyway.

I'm imagining a scenario where living on some isolated farm is going to lead to better survival for me & mine is unlikely. Not to mention there's no way my daughter's mom would go for it (she works in Manhattan) so ok, say the power goes out one day, banks close, government collapses, everyone in Manhattan/NJ eats each other which I'm eating baked beans in an isolated cabin in the woods with a few doomer homies. While worrying about my daughter being dead? Nah. F-ck it. I'm staying where I am.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Narz » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 22:12:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')o let's say the outage lasted 2 to 4 weeks in your geographical area. Rural, suburban, or urban. How would you cope?

I know I could.

I dunno, I'd just fill the tub with water, stay indoors & I dunno what else...
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Newfie » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 22:45:03

Narz,

Remember, I live in Philly, just down the pike from you. We would likely be in the same blackout.

There are ways.

But, yes, most of my cliff dweller friends and neighbors have a similar attitude.

"In that case, I'll just die."

I can't bring myself to accept that. NFW.

Now dealing with the wife is a different matter. My Wife is fairly well on board yet she can't pry herself away from here practice. Perhaps my plans have worked against me here. We do have a reasonable get away plan, which allows her to live in center city. Just no winning sometimes.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby tomnew481 » Thu 20 Mar 2014, 00:32:25

Self-sufficiency is possible but not all can live to it. We are use to have technologies such as electricity, gadgets, automobile, computers, internet etc as part of our daily lives. Taking out of these and back to basic might get more difficult particularly if we are unwilling.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Narz » Thu 20 Mar 2014, 02:10:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'N')arz,

Remember, I live in Philly, just down the pike from you. We would likely be in the same blackout.

There are ways.

But, yes, most of my cliff dweller friends and neighbors have a similar attitude.

"In that case, I'll just die."

I can't bring myself to accept that. NFW.

Now dealing with the wife is a different matter. My Wife is fairly well on board yet she can't pry herself away from here practice. Perhaps my plans have worked against me here. We do have a reasonable get away plan, which allows her to live in center city. Just no winning sometimes.

What's her practice?

I'm trying trying to "just die", even in a worst case scenario (except if the city is leveled by a bomb) it's not like everyone in NYC is going to die overnight. I can survive in my apartment for at least a few months, lock the door, destroy the fire escape. I dunno. I try not to worry about these things when I have no control over them. I'm not going to abandon my family. At some point I'll get an inheritance & have some money to play with & maybe then I can start thinking about a more sustainable situation. Until then...

Philly's a cool city, much mellower than NY, I lived in Strawberry Mansion with a friend for awhile.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Pops » Thu 20 Mar 2014, 09:26:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I')t doesn't garner you many allies (except among the choir perhaps) to say that anyone who's not doing things your way is "doing nothing".

That is the point, I've never condemned others for not doing things my way.

But that very thing is the premise of this thread that you started and the basis of your every argument in it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m as prepared as is practical right now.


See, that's fine, good for you, no more need be said.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur fellow posted, PenultimateManStanding for instace, bought 10-grand worth of supplies, probably alienating himself from his family & friends & coming across as a loonie, not to mention I don't think he was so rich to be spending that kind of money.
I wonder how much of that food went bad or if he still has it.


See? Here is you doing exactly what you are accusing me of doing: passing judgement on what someone felt the need to do. You have no idea how he came across to his family, whether he regrets the purchase or ought more.

LOL, since you've brought it up several times my Pops' Sense tells me that you would actually like to buy a little freeze dried gorp yourself but are afraid your family will think you're a loonie.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m imagining a scenario where living on some isolated farm is going to lead to better survival for me & mine is unlikely.


Fine, great, you have to do what is best for you for the future you see most likely. Everyone has strengths and aptitudes and abilities and they should try to use them. Moving to some isolated farm obviously is not the best option for you. I've said dozens of times over the years that one definitely should not bug out as we did unless they have a plan and the aptitude and the real desire for that life-style because the point isn't simply to stay alive but to have a life.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Newfie » Thu 20 Mar 2014, 18:28:43

Right on Pops, live your life, it's the only one you have.

Narz, my wife is a psychoanalyst. No big bucks there, but she likes it.

But your reply makes me think there are two camps here; one being sustainable living, the other being reasonably prepared. Even if you can't live sustainably ( pretty hard actually) there is no reason you can't think about your biggest threats and do some prepping. Get a pressure cooker and save some money by canning some cheap cuts of beef. Make it a hobby.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Mar 2014, 05:59:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'H')ow do you make a "Zombie horde"? Have the ATMs stop working, the banks close and the government checks and direct deposits stop coming. How much cash do you have on hand?
Cities depend on food and water being delivered daily and that takes both transport fuel and money. Cut off the electricity , close a few bridges and close the banks and you have shortages and panic in three days or less. Instant Zombie Horde. The cops will be hungry too and will be some of the worst of the Zombies as they are armed have backup communications and the color of authority.
I think survival chances are much greater in the country especially for those that live there and know how to raise and process their own food and energy supplies. You can't chop wood in town or butcher a pig that isn't there.

Why would the bridges be closed in a disaster like that? People will shoot their way out?

If I thought a scenario like that was likely in the next 10 years I wouldn't stick around of course.

As actually happened after hurricane Katrina a bridge gets closed to keep" them "from crossing over to get to "US". Those trapped in the cities have very few guns to shoot their way out. Those on the country side of the bridge have plenty.
Not stick around? Where you going to go?
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Newfie » Fri 21 Mar 2014, 09:34:05

The bridges and tunnels are pretty well " closed" most days just from normal traffic. As are many major highways.

You would simply have a few cars break down or run out of gas, then they are closed.

But don't you remember the times when power went off in NYC? Roads shut down too. Grid lock without traffic lights. Can't pump gas too.

I didn't think it needed to be restated but city living without power is not possible after about three days. It quickly deteriorates to survival situations.

Katerina ans Sandy were largely regionalized events where the vast majority of the nation could assist, and the situations still remainder poor for a long time.

If there is a larger event, or a coordinated event (power attack in winter) things could be much worse.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Mar 2014, 11:19:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')he bridges and tunnels are pretty well " closed" most days just from normal traffic. As are many major highways.

You would simply have a few cars break down or run out of gas, then they are closed.

But don't you remember the times when power went off in NYC? Roads shut down too. Grid lock without traffic lights. Can't pump gas too.

I didn't think it needed to be restated but city living without power is not possible after about three days. It quickly deteriorates to survival situations.

Katerina ans Sandy were largely regionalized events where the vast majority of the nation could assist, and the situations still remainder poor for a long time.

If there is a larger event, or a coordinated event (power attack in winter) things could be much worse.

Some very good points there Newfie.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Narz » Fri 21 Mar 2014, 13:50:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')ee? Here is you doing exactly what you are accusing me of doing: passing judgement on what someone felt the need to do. You have no idea how he came across to his family, whether he regrets the purchase or ought more.

I'm not passing judgement as much as feeling sorry for the guy. It was a mismanagement of money just like getting stressed out about it is a mismanagement of emotional resources.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'R')ight on Pops, live your life, it's the only one you have.

Narz, my wife is a psychoanalyst. No big bucks there, but she likes it.

But your reply makes me think there are two camps here; one being sustainable living, the other being reasonably prepared. Even if you can't live sustainably ( pretty hard actually) there is no reason you can't think about your biggest threats and do some prepping. Get a pressure cooker and save some money by canning some cheap cuts of beef. Make it a hobby.

I plan to start making some kim-chi again anyway. Problem with preparing/drying food is it gets really boring solo. Maybe I should start a meetup group.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')he bridges and tunnels are pretty well " closed" most days just from normal traffic. As are many major highways.

You would simply have a few cars break down or run out of gas, then they are closed.

But don't you remember the times when power went off in NYC? Roads shut down too. Grid lock without traffic lights. Can't pump gas too.

I didn't think it needed to be restated but city living without power is not possible after about three days. It quickly deteriorates to survival situations.

Katerina ans Sandy were largely regionalized events where the vast majority of the nation could assist, and the situations still remainder poor for a long time.

If there is a larger event, or a coordinated event (power attack in winter) things could be much worse.

Well there are boats. I think it would be in the best interest of those in power to keep the major cities running. If they collapse, the nation collapses, and those in power need to worker bees alive. At least until they can replace us all with robots.

Of course there are some things outside of human control, like a solar flare knocking out the grid, if that happens, yeah, I'd probably wish I was in some cabin somewhere.
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Mar 2014, 19:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')id someone actually suggest that total self-sufficiency is possible? It ain't not nearly. We don't have local industry anymore. We don't have local arable land. We don't even have local resources anymore. (They were stripped off the planet 140 years ago. All we have left is the increasingly remote, deep, dispersed minerals. Like oil. )

The only way self-sufficiency will be possible is via scavenging. There is plenty of high-quality ores left in the form of used, junked, corroding industrial detritus. It'll pay to remember the 3R's :)

Not only do I think it is possible I think it is quite likely. A neanderthal man lived with the products of some stone tools and the game he killed with them. Are we today with all the knowledge we have gained in the ensuing twenty centuries less capable of adapting to the current situation?
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Re: Total Self-Sufficiency is a Misguided Ideal

Postby Narz » Fri 21 Mar 2014, 20:04:09

Well game is alot less plentiful & there a whole lot more of the most dangerous game to contend with so it's a trade off. ;)
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