[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')url=http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/1977/1101770912_400.jpg]21st Century Economy: The Kids Are Alright[/url]$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he pessimism around the Millennial generation is, at best, premature. We already know that income scales with education, and the Millennial Generation will be the most educated in history. The oldest of the Millennials, 30–34s, have a much higher post-secondary attainment rate than than their parents: 45% to the 40% of 50–54s. Beyond education, income also scales with age. With the modal Millennial being 21 today, over the next decade millennials will likely make their largest age-based income gains (more than $22,000). With this higher income, 25–34′s spend a great deal more, and more frequently form households.

All of these new households need a home

Oops, you're right I goofed! Had been doing something else and I didn't copy the link when I posted this. Here's the corrected one.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'H')ere's one of my "21st Century Economy" posts - with a really interesting twist. And it also has a lot to do with the "bombshell report" article I posted above.



21st Century Economy: The Kids Are Alright
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]

The pessimism around the Millennial generation is, at best, premature. We already know that income scales with education, and the Millennial Generation will be the most educated in history. The oldest of the Millennials, 30–34s, have a much higher post-secondary attainment rate than than their parents: 45% to the 40% of 50–54s. Beyond education, income also scales with age. With the modal Millennial being 21 today, over the next decade millennials will likely make their largest age-based income gains (more than $22,000). With this higher income, 25–34′s spend a great deal more, and more frequently form households.

All of these new households need a home

The Census Bureau forecasts an additional 30 million Americans in 10 years. This is in addition to the 22 million 20–24s who largely haven’t formed households, who will become 30–34s who have. Even using the densest household age bracket, 35–44s at 3.3, that is 16.25 million new households, or 1.625 million per year (Figure 4). This is largely consistent with other estimates, such as from the Federal Reserve’s Andrew Paciorek.

[...]

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . With interest rates as they have been for some time in the US even I can understand that the manufacturing sector will invest in Automation and Robotics rather than providing jobs.

I wonder how would the sector fare if they had to pay 14/18% for their money as we did in the late 'Seventies when establishing a marine engineering/manufacturing business.

It is possible to survive under such a burden. You have to be small and nimble though . . . characteristics not typical of most US manufacturing operations.

Cheers.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scrub Puller', 'Y')air . . .

[Loki]

Ellyn Terry of the Atlanta Fed did an interesting study last month of the labor force participation rate:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What Accounts for the Decrease in the Labor Force Participation Rate?

Despite the addition of only 74,000 jobs to the economy in December, the unemployment rate dropped significantly—from 7 percent to 6.7 percent. The decline came mostly from a decrease in the labor force.

Since the recession began, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) has dropped from 66 percent to 63 percent. Many people have left the labor force because they are discouraged from applying (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that a little under 1 million people fall into this category). But the primary drivers appear to be an increase in the number of people who are either retired, disabled/ill, or in school.
Certainly, the aging of the population accounts for much of the increase in the retired and disabled/ill categories. Still, there has been a lot of movement over the past few years in the reasons people cite for not participating in the labor force within age groups. Knowing the reasons why people have left (or delayed entering) the labor force can help us understand how much of the decline will likely halt once the economy picks back up and how much is permanent....

The chart below shows the distribution of reasons in the fourth quarter of 2013. (Of the people not in the labor force, 1.6 percent indicate they want a job and give a reason for not being in the labor force. They are categorized here as "want a job" only.) Young people are not in the labor force mostly because they are in school. Individuals 25 to 50 years old who are not in the labor force are mostly taking care of their family or house. After age 50, disability or illness becomes the primary reason people do not want to work—until around age 60, when retirement begins to dominate.



In total, the number of people not in the labor force rose by 12.6 million (16 percent) from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2013. About 5.5 million more people (a 16 percent increase) are retired, 2.9 million (a 23 percent increase) are disabled or ill, and 2.5 million (a 19 percent increase) are in school. An additional 161,000 are taking care of their family or house, and an additional 99,000 are not in the labor force for other reasons. The fraction who say they want a job has risen the most (32 percent) but has contributed only 11 percent to the total change. The chart below shows the overall contributions by reason to the changes in labor force participation for all age groups since the onset of the recession.

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . copious.abundance. I have started every post that way since my first days on the internet. (he gives a big grin)

Its a sort of laid back Queensland thing . . . if you drawl out "Yaaair" before you make a statement it gives a few moments to put your thoughts in order. I do it all the time in normal speech . . . saw no reason to discontinue when posting on the net.

On a practical level it also helps (along with the bolding or coloured text when responding to other posters) to identify my posts.

Cheers.

[copious.abundance]

Well, you know things are going pretty good when people are disappointed at ADP's jobs added which was "only" 175K, and the consensus was 180K.



US private companies created 175,000 jobs in January vs. 180,000 estimate
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Private companies created 175,000 new positions in January, a bit lower than expected but in keeping with the pace of job creation over the past two years, according to the latest report from ADP and Moody's Analytics.

Economists expected the ADP to report that private companies created 180,000 jobs in January, down from the downwardly revised 217,000 positions in December.

"Nothing changed in December or January fundamentally," Moody's economist Mark Zanki told CNBC. "The economy is still improving."

As has been the case throughout the labor recovery, services created by far the bulk of the growth, with 160,000 new positions added. Professional services declined sharply, adding just 49,000 jobs after averaging 65,000 over the past two months.

Manufacturing jobs, meanwhile, fell by 12,000 though construction added 25,000.

Small businesses also led the way, with 75,000 jobs, though that was the lowest figure since August. Large firms, with more than 500 employees, added just 34,000 positions.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Service Industries in U.S. Grew More Than Forecast in January
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ervice industries in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in January as the biggest part of the economy shrugged off the effects of snow and freezing temperatures.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 54 from 53 in December, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion.

Consumer demand for services continues to strengthen as employment grows and housing prices rise. While an unusually harsh winter has taken a toll on some areas, including car sales and manufacturing, the recovery is on firmer footing going into 2014 as households reduce debt burdens and wealth improves.

“We have household spending and business spending picking up a bit,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, said before the report. “All the fundamentals still look good.”

[...]

[Keith_McClary]

There are some interesting reader comments on this article:
http://peakoil.com/consumption/the-us-e ... -you-think

[copious.abundance]

I sure didn't see anything interesting there. Some of these doomer comments have become almost unbelievably predictable. Usually it goes something like this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GardenVarietyDoomer', 'W')e're being screwed over by TPTB. The growth they're saying we have us is a bunch of lies. In reality, the unemployment rate is 66.6% and the economy is shrinking by 6.66% every quarter. If you don't believe me, subscribe to Shadowstats. And read Zerohedge. Also, oil production is about to fall off a cliff any moment now, so even if we were getting some growth, it wouldn't matter because it won't last long. The Fed - a private banking cartel created by the illuminati banksters - is screwing us raw, especially since they're suppressing the price of gold.

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . copious.abundance

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am serious when I say some of these people clearly have serious psychological issues.

[copious.abundance]

^
No, that's just done for entertainment.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scrub Puller', 'Y')air . . . copious.abundance

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am serious when I say some of these people clearly have serious psychological issues.

[copious.abundance]

I was wondering if someone would ever say something about that photo.

I use it for the ISM Services index. I've got another similar one of Houston I use sometimes (this one is in Denver).

Office buildings housing tech firms, and/or financial companies, and/or consulting firms, and who knows what else ... trucks on the road (transportation) ... a mall in the bottom-right corner (retail) ... copious amounts of landscaping to keep landscaping companies busy. And, maybe nobody's noticed, but a light rail line just in front of the freeway, symbolizing government (in addition to transportation).

A comprehensive photo of the US service sector!

[Strummer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'A') comprehensive photo of the US service sector!

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . copious.abundance I hear a lot about this "service sector" thingy over here too . . . what does it actually do?

[copious.abundance]

Jobless claims show labor-market improvement
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The number of people who applied to receive unemployment benefits in the last week of January fell by 20,000, reversing the increase from the week before and signaling that the U.S. labor market continues to gradually improve.

Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 in the seven-days ended Feb. 1 from a revised 351,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were 3,000 higher than previously reported.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected claims to total 337,000.

The average of new claims over the past month, usually a more reliable gauge than the weekly number, edged down by 250 to 334,000. That put claims close to their level before the Thanksgiving holiday in late November, suggesting little change in the pace of hiring and firing over the past two months.

Weekly claims, typically a good proxy for layoffs, often jump up and down during the holiday season and the first month of the new year. They usually settle down by early February.

[...]

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'W')ell, you know things are going pretty good when people are disappointed at ADP's jobs added which was "only" 175K, and the consensus was 180K.

It was (another) weird jobs report. Household survey was great, establishment survey was a big, fat "meh."

Job market bad, or OK? Depends on which survey you use.

*shrugs*

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') thought you might have learned your lesson after posting that patently dishonest non-inflation-adjusted median income chart, but I guess not.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')b]Service Industries in U.S. Grew More Than Forecast in January