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Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 16:37:50

And they also can't get enough software engineers, construction workers, consultants, insurance agents, architects, surveyors, truck drivers and petroleum engineers.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 16:59:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'A')nd they also can't get enough software engineers, construction workers, consultants, insurance agents, architects, surveyors, truck drivers and petroleum engineers.


Given the anemic BLS numbers on hiring and the millions of people who can't find jobs, and the record levels of foodstamp use, disability enrollments, and poverty in the US, it seems like there aren't as many jobs as needed, and the bulk of jobs out there are low paying jobs in the service sector. :roll:
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 17:09:19

From today's BLS release:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onstruction added 48,000 jobs over the month, more than offsetting a decline of 22,000 in December. In January, job gains occurred in both residential and nonresidential building (+13,000 and +8,000, respectively) and in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+13,000). Heavy and civil engineering construction also added 10,000 jobs.

Employment in manufacturing increased in January (+21,000). Over the month, job gains occurred in machinery (+7,000), wood products (+5,000), and motor vehicles and parts (+5,000). Manufacturing added an average of 7,000 jobs per month in 2013.

In January, wholesale trade added 14,000 jobs, with most of the increase occurring in nondurable goods (+10,000).

Mining added 7,000 jobs in January, compared with an average monthly gain of 2,000 jobs in 2013.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in January (+36,000). The industry added an average of 55,000 jobs per month in 2013. Within the industry, professional and technical services added 20,000 jobs in January.

Leisure and hospitality employment continued to trend up over the month (+24,000). Job growth in the industry averaged 38,000 per month in 2013.

Employment in health care was essentially unchanged in January for the second consecutive month. Health care added an average of 17,000 jobs per month in 2013.

Employment in retail trade changed little in January (-13,000). Within the industry, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores lost 22,000 jobs, offsetting job gains in the prior 3 months. In January, motor vehicle and parts dealers added 7,000 jobs.

In January, federal government employment decreased by 12,000; the U.S. Postal Service accounted for most of this decline (-9,000).

Employment in other major industries, including transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities, showed little or no change over the month.

So the biggest increases were in:
- Construction: +48,000 jobs
- Professional and business services: +36,000 jobs
- Leisure and hospitality: +24,000 jobs
- Manufacturing: +21,000 jobs

Out of those 4 categories, only 1 of them - leisure and hospitality - tend to be lower-wage jobs.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 17:32:11

How do you reconcile that with the continuing stagnation and decreases in median family income? More part time jobs? More people out of the labor force entirely?

Income has tumbled since the recession hit, and is still 8.3% below where it was in 2007.
"We've had [economic] growth, but it hasn't really reached everyday Americans," said Elise Gould, an economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. "It's a lost decade, maybe more."


Whats the story, c-abun?

median family income falls again
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 17:50:30

Median family income includes ... everybody. If the unemployment rate goes up, median family income automatically goes down, because you'll get a lot of households with at least one income earner no longer having a job, and thus, sending the income of that household down. Since the unemployment rate is still somewhat high at 6.6%, that explains why (real) median family income still hasn't reached its pre-recession high.

Why do I have to explain stuff like this? Am I the only one here who has anything resembling analytical abilities? :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 17:57:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'M')edian family income includes ... everybody. If the unemployment rate goes up, median family income automatically goes down, because you'll get a lot of households with at least one income earner no longer having a job, and thus, sending the income of that household down. Since the unemployment rate is still somewhat high at 6.6%, that explains why (real) median family income still hasn't reached its pre-recession high.

Why do I have to explain stuff like this? Am I the only one here who has anything resembling analytical abilities? :roll:

Which proves the point that many are making that the recovery is far from comprehensive, many are simply being bypassed! It should also be noted that "recovery" is probably a better term and most of these "new" jobs are simply re-employments after the crash caused them to be lost.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 19:27:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'B')reaking news: The ADP report is always private-sector only, and I've never indicated anything else. You must be pretty desperate to accuse me of something if you're accusing me of inferring something I never even came close to inferring.

You didn't infer, you stated outright:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, you know things are going pretty good when people are disappointed at ADP's jobs added which was "only" 175K, and the consensus was 180K.


That 180k figure comes from the Bloomberg survey of economists and includes government jobs:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he 113,000 gain in hiring fell short of the 180,000 advance that was the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-0 ... falls.html
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 19:57:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'M')edian family income includes ... everybody. If the unemployment rate goes up, median family income automatically goes down, because you'll get a lot of households with at least one income earner no longer having a job, and thus, sending the income of that household down. Since the unemployment rate is still somewhat high at 6.6%, that explains why (real) median family income still hasn't reached its pre-recession high.

Why do I have to explain stuff like this? Am I the only one here who has anything resembling analytical abilities? :roll:

Analysis you ask?

The linear correlation coefficient of the U-3 rate and Median Household Income (CPI-U-RS adjusted) from 1984-2012 is -0.574. R2 of HHI and U-3 is 32.9%.

If we lag HHI one year relative to U-3, r value goes up to -0.658 and R2 goes up to 43.4%.

U-5 rate has a stronger correlation with HHI, r value is -0.630. R2 is 39.7%. Lagged one year, r is -0.792 and R2 is 62.7%.

I'm not disagreeing with you, just quantifying your assertion. You are correct that the flaccid recovery of the labor market explains (at least in part) the decline/stagnation of median income. But other changes in the labor market are also clearly playing a role.

Edited to fix spreadsheet error
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 21:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'B')reaking news: The ADP report is always private-sector only, and I've never indicated anything else. You must be pretty desperate to accuse me of something if you're accusing me of inferring something I never even came close to inferring.

You didn't infer, you stated outright:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, you know things are going pretty good when people are disappointed at ADP's jobs added which was "only" 175K, and the consensus was 180K.

Where did I say that was supposed to include government jobs? Hint: What was the title of the article I was posting when I said your above quotation.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:01:17

Here, I'll help Loki out with this bump. Now, all one has to do is read the big, bold red words. And notice the word beginning with a 'p.'
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/101391576]US private companies created 175,000 jobs in January vs. 180,000 estimate[/url]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:19:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')b]US private companies created 175,000 jobs in January vs. 180,000 estimate


Thats old news. The latest data from the BLS says only 117,000 jobs were created in January. Thats the second bad month in a row.

I understand why you'd want to ignore the latest data, but you can't just cherrypick the numbers you want. You are a very knowledgable person, but you are coming across as a bit dishonest when you selectively try to cover up data that doesn't support your viewpoint.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:26:16

It's not the "latest" data. They were both data for the month of January.

And as I said, considering that the ADP report only covers the private sector, whereas the BLS report includes both the private and public sectors, and the ADP report said 175K private sector jobs were added while the BLS report said 142K private sector jobs were added, the two reports were actually fairly close to one another. In fact, given the margins of error in both reports (BLS is about 100K jobs either direction, not sure what ADP is), they're even closer.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:31:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'I')t's not the "latest" data.


The BLS data was released after the data you are citing. It came out later. That makes it the latest data.

Why don't you understand what simple words like "later" mean? Are you dyslexic? Or dishonest? Or a lawyer? whats the problem?

Please also note the BLS data also includes government hiring and layoffs, while the data you cited ignored this very important sector of the economy. Obviously the latest and more complete data set is important, and shouldn't be ignored.

Its bad form to cherrypick your numbers and use older data while ignoring the latest data.

CHEERS! 8)
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:42:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'I')t's not the "latest" data.


The BLS data was released after the data you are citing. It came out later. That makes it the latest data.

Wrong-o! The date of release is irrelevant. The BLS data does not - I repeat, does NOT - cover a more recent time period. Thus there is nothing "later" about it. If I told you I had $1000 in my savings account at the end of January on Wednesday, and then someone else (maybe my bank) told you I had $1000 in my savings account at the end of January this morning, there would be nothing "later" about the content of the information conveyed today - they both would be information about the exact same time period.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lease also note the BLS data also includes government hiring and layoffs, while the data you cited ignored this very important sector of the economy.

You're now (deliberately) making the same mistake as Loki. Talk about dishonest! If I posted a report on the Philly Fed index, you'd accuse me of not including ALL the data for the entire nation. :roll: Hey dumbass, it wasn't supposed to be a report on the entire nation, it was just supposed to be a report on manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. :roll: :badgrin:

Boy, the doomers are getting desperate if they're complaining about this. :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:44:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'H')ere, I'll help Loki out with this bump. Now, all one has to do is read the big, bold red words. And notice the word beginning with a 'p.'
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/101391576]US private companies created 175,000 jobs in January vs. 180,000 estimate[/url]

You need to read beyond the headlines. Making the font red and size 140 doesn't support your point. The 180k estimate included government jobs---accounting for the big drop in the public sector, the net gain is only 113k, extremely low.

You're comparing apples and oranges. Not sure how much more I can dumb this down for you.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 22:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'Y')ou need to read beyond the headlines. Making the font red and size 18 doesn't support your point. The 180k estimate included government jobs.

WRONG! Boy are you dumb! When CNBC or any other media outlet surveys economists for their estimates for a given data release, the economists know what data that release contains. In fact, it says so right in the article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Economists expected the ADP to report that private companies created 180,000 jobs in January

Get it? It says RIGHT THERE that the economists who were estimating the aforementioned 180K jobs were estimating jobs created by private companies. It had nothing to do with the BLS data released today.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:01:55

I'll try to dumb it down, but this is my last attempt:

(1) Your 180k figure comes from a specific survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg---please research this before you refer to "CNBC or any other media outlet surveys economists," you're coming off as uninformed, it's embarrassing to the site

(2) Bloomberg says this 180k figure includes changes in public sector employment

(3) ADP's estimate of private sector job creation cannot be directly compared to the Bloomberg figure---please refer to #2

Please try to read beyond the headlines in the future and try to understand the content you're cutting and pasting.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '
')Wrong-o! The date of release is irrelevant.


Now you are just being dishonest.

Consider this----a town has a morning newspaper and an evening newspaper. One is published earlier and one is published in the afternoon.

If it was dinnertime and someone told you to go buy the latest paper, would you buy the morning paper or the afternoon paper?

Which one is the latest?

You're a slippery one, c-abun. Lets see you lie about that.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:15:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I')'ll try to dumb it down, but this is my last attempt:

(1) Your 180k figure comes from a specific survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg---please research this before you refer to "CNBC or any other media outlet surveys economists," you're coming off as uninformed, it's embarrassing to the site

(2) Bloomberg says this 180k figure includes changes in public sector employment

(3) ADP's estimate of private sector job creation cannot be directly compared to the Bloomberg figure---please refer to #2

Please try to read beyond the headlines in the future and try to understand the content you're cutting and pasting.

Wow - you are completely, totally wrong. Off. Dishonest. Lying.

The quote under discussion ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'W')ell, you know things are going pretty good when people are disappointed at ADP's jobs added which was "only" 175K, and the consensus was 180K.

... was not only written before I posted an article from CNBC (not Bloomberg), but it specifically referred to the ADP jobs report, not the BLS report. Notice that which I bolded above. You're quoting me from one article about one particular data set, and telling me that was being dishonest about a completely different article and data set from two days later! :lol: :roll: Like, I even referred specifically to the report in the quote, a fact you're completely ignoring. I think it's time you got a new pair of glasses!
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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