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Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby PrestonSturges » Sat 14 Dec 2013, 18:50:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', ' ')With Social Security some people actually think that their money is still there and will be there when they need it.

Remember how the GOP ridiculed Al Gore's idea of a Social Security "lock box" because Bush wanted to put that money into the stock market?
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby wildbourgman » Sat 14 Dec 2013, 18:57:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')emember how the GOP ridiculed Al Gore's idea of a Social Security "lock box" because Bush wanted to put that money into the stock market?


Yeah, I remember and that's sad because there were so many better reasons to ridicule Al Gore, the lock box was not one of them. The naive thought that any supposed lock box would stay locked with our government, now that might be worth ridicule.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Quinny » Sat 14 Dec 2013, 19:13:36

Spot on!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', '
')The main reason IMHO is control in that young unemployed 'can' be targeted as 'lazy and scroungers' etc...... Whereas TPTB and the right wing press can't as easily attack pensioners who've worked all their lives.

It simply allows the divide and rule strategies of TPTB to be perpetuated.

Up until 64 years 11 months and 30 odd days your are a lazy ,dole bludging job snob.
One day later at 65 you are a dear old pensioner who has worked hard and paid taxes.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Tanada » Sat 14 Dec 2013, 19:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Would never work, the individual is just as greedy as any politician. People as a rule don't save. Specially poor people that can barely make ends meet. If you make it mandatory, then what's the difference other than individual accounts would not be guaranteed a return on savings, or investment and could eventually be a total loss. The only people that would really benefit is corporations needing a new investment revenue stream.


The way I described the system the only people who run out of some income before they die would be those who never invested a dime in anything other than Social Security and who live more than 20 years past the age they retired at. Very few people live beyond 85, for those few who are truly destitute at 90+ years old the social safety net would still be in place. If we can support millions of the very poor adding a few thousand very elderly folks would not do any harm.


You haven't described whether these retirement savings would be mandatory, or voluntary? Also, money never stays stagnant, the only way for those funds to grow would be to go to work for the savings institution which always involves an element of risk and a fluctuating return.


Under my system the same 15% payroll deduction would be made as is made today, but in this system it goes into your individual account where Congress can't touch it or add it to the General Fund to cover up part of the deficit by buying government bonds with it.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby KaiserJeep » Sat 14 Dec 2013, 23:30:21

I'm not saying that such a proposal would not work. I am saying that it's simply never going to happen.

Congress passes legislation. They will never pass any legislation to keep the biggest pot of money in the world out of their greedy hands, for use in rewarding those who financed their campaign into elected office.

There are lots of good ideas. The legislative system pretty well ensures that only bad ideas get passed into law.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 00:38:33

I've been thinking along the same lines about a mandatory personal savings, and the government should insure an interest rate that would be the rate of inflation plus 1.5%.

Then, when a person retires they can convert that amount to an annuity that will pay them for the rest of their lives regardless of how long they live.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 00:53:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, about those "draconian cuts," tell us where you are getting this stuff, because people are very free about sharing opinions like that and then they go silent when I ask "Where did you hear that?"

Dude don't you read the news? Heck let me find a couple of news stories to link to for ya. Heck I'll go to the Huffington post and see what they have real quick.
I think you need to look up the definition of "draconian." I think chained CPI is a lousy idea, but I think "draconian" would be more along the lines of a 25% haircut in existing payments.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Quinny » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 06:16:01

What's with this obsession with the individual!

Some things are simply better provided collectively and also much cheaper in the long run,
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Tanada » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 08:41:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'W')hat's with this obsession with the individual!

Some things are simply better provided collectively and also much cheaper in the long run,


I fully agree, things like the Military, Police Force, Fire department are all excellent examples of things better done collectively than individually. I even agree that financial support for destitute retirees falls into this category. However I do not believe in one size fits all plans because they only fit a minority of any group very well, for most people in a group the fit is too big or too small.

What is the objection to people retaining control of their retirement pension guaranteed by the government and inheritable by their descendents or designated successor?
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Pops » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 08:44:04

What is wrong with SS? Basically it is investing your retirement dollars in US bonds. there is no safer investment. If the US goes tits up nothing will be worth anything.

Tanada I think the government paying interest on savings it can't use doesn't make sense. The gov pays interest on the money now but in your plan the money is taken out of circulation. The whole point of the banking system is that one person's savings is another's capital. Taking money - a huge amount in fact, out of the system to simply sit there (and have the public pay to not use it) would be incredibly deflationary. And just because the evil government can't spend that money is absolutely no impediment to it borrowing money to spend elsewhere.

SS is a savings account. You loan the gov money, they use it and pay it back with interest. The pay-back is at a rate calculated on your life expectancy - which just happens to be 17.5 years for men 65, and 20 years for women 65. That's why benefits are lower if you start them at 62 and higher if you start at 70 because you essentially have a set amount.

The "social" part is that if you live longer than the actuarial tables predict you don't run out of savings, that's balanced of course by the folks who don't live as long. The kicker is the benefits are progressive in that lower income people receive a greater benefit than higher. That also balances because withholding is regressive - lower incomes also pay a higher percentage.

So essentially there is no functional difference between what you are proposing and SS, except the part about people who "never saved anything" being put on welfare and branded with the Scarlet Letter if they live longer than their allotted 20 years. That's the Puritan guilt trip coming out, LOL


--
OTOH, the only thing privatizing SS money would do would be to open up a whole new racket for Payday Loan, check cashers and other vultures to suck off the uneducated working person and of course opening up the retirement of the entire country to the Bernie Madoffs and Gold Sacs of the world. The only thing giving that money to fund managers would accomplish is increasing the manager's own IRA. Mutual funds took an average of 30% of returns in fees in the oughties, it is just another scam.

Of course there is the added benefit of being able to blame the unsophisticated for being unsophisticated.

--
It seems half the country wants to punish and profit from the unsophisticated burger flipper and the other half wants to cut him a check and put him on a program. Don't even think about paying him a living wage or heaven forbid, protecting him from the legal loan sharks or outfits who charge 20% to cash his tiny paycheck for cripes sake. Heck, he's lucky to have a job, we'd fire him too but the robot hasn't yet figured out how to pick up the dropped hash browns off the floor.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Tanada » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 08:54:24

Pops if you scroll back up to my proposal you will see the savings accounts are to be held by the Federal reserve, not private banks, and the Federal reserve is in the business of lending money to regional/state banks so they have plenty of income to cover the moderate interest they would have to pay to the SS recipients.

One of my goals with my system is to let the heirs of the deceased senior inherit the unspent money in the account instead of it going to the Government. If you work for 40 years and die suddenly at 61 the government says too bad so sad and pockets all the funds you put into the system. If you work the same 40 years and save money in a private bank and drop dead your spouse/descendents/heirs/designee get to use that money to stimulate the economy directly.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby wildbourgman » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 09:11:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, about those "draconian cuts," tell us where you are getting this stuff, because people are very free about sharing opinions like that and then they go silent when I ask "Where did you hear that?"

Dude don't you read the news? Heck let me find a couple of news stories to link to for ya. Heck I'll go to the Huffington post and see what they have real quick.
I think you need to look up the definition of "draconian." I think chained CPI is a lousy idea, but I think "draconian" would be more along the lines of a 25% haircut in existing payments.



Well as you obviously read in the links, I didn't make up all of the stuff that I posted could happen to Social Security, I'm not that smart. So you pick out one word to question, well that word was in at least one of the links I posted and if I remember right it was a left leaning politician calling these options draconian. Other than that, I would say if all of these options were put on the table, coupled with the fact that our government's inflation stats are lies, that could feel pretty Draconian to folks that thought they were going to live off of Social Security.

If I remember correctly there were a bunch of politicians throwing around words like that to discribe cuts to the rate of increase in the yearly federal budget. Not a cut mind you, but a cut in the rate of increase, that was called Draconian.

I agree a 25% haircut would be pretty bad, my guess is that if you take real inflation into account along with everything else proposed, you'll more than exceed that 25% after everything is said and done, but only time will tell.
Last edited by wildbourgman on Sun 15 Dec 2013, 09:21:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby yellowcanoe » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 09:15:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat is wrong with SS? Basically it is investing your retirement dollars in US bonds. there is no safer investment. If the US goes tits up nothing will be worth anything.


The problem with converting the SS surplus into US bonds is what happens once so many boomers retire that SS needs to start drawing on those funds. The government is essentially borrowing and spending the surplus but once SS needs those funds the government needs to start paying back to the SS fund. That will translate into higher taxes at a time when the number of workers per retiree is at an alltime low.

We had the same nonsense happening with the Canadian Pension Plan -- funds were being loaned out to the provinces at low interest rates. However, about 15 years ago the government realized the plan was heading for the rocks if they didn't make some major changes. CPP is now managed by an independent board that is mandated to get the best possible return on the investments. They are allowed to make investments outside of Canada. Contribution rates were also increased to ensure the plan remains solvent as the boomers retire.

The politicians in Washington are aware of the changes Canada made to the CPP as experts from CPP have testified at congressional hearings in Washington. Yet US politicians have chosen to do squat to fix SS.

With peak oil and the end of growth coming, it is likely that even the CPP will be unable to stay fully solvent. However, I am sure that the average Canadian retiree will do better than those who are dependent on the mis-managed SS system.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Pops » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 09:19:39

T. there is no money for the government to "get."
SS is insurance and society is the the "insurance pool." Total benefits and total premiums are meant to balance. Your kids don't get the money back from your various insurance premiums if you don't get sick or your house doesn't burn down or you don't get in a car accident or die in a plane crash. You pay the premium in return for the avoidance of risk, in the case of SS, to avoid the risk of getting old and being completely broke.

It's just old age insurance with a mandated premium to force people to act responsibly, just like the Heritage Foundation likes, LOL

I'd guess the reason the fund is in trouble at the moment is the system simply hasn't caught up with increasing life expectancy.

And anyway, I thought you hated the Fed> LOL
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Pops » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 09:29:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yellowcanoe', 'T')he problem with converting the SS surplus into US bonds is what happens once so many boomers retire that SS needs to start drawing on those funds.

So you're thinking that this problem has snuck up on TPTB? LOL

--
PO of course is the problem with all this. If less oil means less energy, and less energy means less economic surplus; then these calculations based on BAU go out the window. But I have no idea how to quantify that or put any kind of a timeline on it. To be honest, when I was a kid in the '70s I didn't think I'd ever see a SS check so to have it still be pluggin away with less than 10 years left til my official retirement age is a good sign!
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby vision-master » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 10:16:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'I')'ve been thinking along the same lines about a mandatory personal savings, and the government should insure an interest rate that would be the rate of inflation plus 1.5%.

Then, when a person retires they can convert that amount to an annuity that will pay them for the rest of their lives regardless of how long they live.


Kinda like a 403b pension plan.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby vision-master » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 10:18:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'P')ops if you scroll back up to my proposal you will see the savings accounts are to be held by the Federal reserve, not private banks, and the Federal reserve is in the business of lending money to regional/state banks so they have plenty of income to cover the moderate interest they would have to pay to the SS recipients.

One of my goals with my system is to let the heirs of the deceased senior inherit the unspent money in the account instead of it going to the Government. If you work for 40 years and die suddenly at 61 the government says too bad so sad and pockets all the funds you put into the system. If you work the same 40 years and save money in a private bank and drop dead your spouse/descendents/heirs/designee get to use that money to stimulate the economy directly.


So you are going to have $1,000,000 in savings?
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby Lore » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 11:25:18

I'm not sure how Tanada's plan is any different then the SS system we have now? The fact that presently the money becomes part of the general fund is irrelevant. The money by law still gets paid out to every eligible recipient. If the money is held by the Feds in some lock box it's still not just going to sit there doing nothing, specially if you have to pay interest on top of it. The security of that money is no different then it is now.

If you want to balance the present system by the deadline of 2033, as pointed out, raise the eligibility age, raise the payroll tax by 4%, or decrease the benefit.
Last edited by Lore on Sun 15 Dec 2013, 13:11:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 12:20:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat is wrong with SS? Basically it is investing your retirement dollars in US bonds. there is no safer investment. If the US goes tits up nothing will be worth anything.

Tanada I think the government paying interest on savings it can't use doesn't make sense. The gov pays interest on the money now but in your plan the money is taken out of circulation.


That's true, but it's also a valid way of increasing the money supply if there are traditional lending banks that can use that money to make loans instead of risky investments. This would keep lending interest rates low.
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Re: Pensions and Unemployment Benefits

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 15 Dec 2013, 12:23:26

Now we have the cities claiming they are too broke to pay pensioners, but many of these cities have financed the construction of huge stadiums that operate at a loss. Some cities have built several stadiums for crappy sports franchises. Now some teams want to replace perfectly good stadiums with newer stadiums with fewer seats and more luxury sky-boxes, all on the taxpayers backs.
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