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Peak Oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 10:27:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', ' ')EROEI isn't a metric the oil industry uses, obviously, nor does anyone else. But as you say, the costs of energy inputs are part of the overall ROI. A 10 year old could immediately grasp this concept. John_A on the other hand....


Thank you for agreeing with dorlomin and I. And in the business we usually label it IRR, to distinguish from the shenanigans of the accountants and financial statement hooligans who then present that information to the world.

It is all about the costs...no one gives a rat's behind if I use a million BTUs or a Quadrillion BTUs to get the work done, but they do care if I use the more expensive ($$) of the two.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')I'm pathologically honest, I can squeeze out a fib if my back is against the wall, but it goes against every grain of my being. One reason I keep my mouth shut most of the time.


Same here. :)
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Strummer » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 10:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'n')o one gives a rat's behind if I use a million BTUs or a Quadrillion BTUs to get the work done, but they do care if I use the more expensive ($$) of the two.


The overall economy does care, and will come back to bite you in the a$$. In the long run, the economy balances itself out based on energy and resources, not money.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 10:36:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;...no one uses ENERGY metrics to make decisions in the oil field." True...I never have and never will. But I use the cost of energy as one factor along with the cost of every component.


Thank you for verifying with boots on the ground experience what Loki, Dorlomin and myself have all just agreed to. It is nice to see that we are all on the right track, and that the amount of energy used to do any given amount of work is irrelevant, and only the cost in $$ is what matters.

Now if we can just convince the likes of Charlie Hall of this...him being a bit out of the mainstream when it comes to real world experience like you've got Rock.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 10:40:02

DC - So true. But given direct energy input accounts for at most 10% of well cost an insufficient rate of return will kill a project long before EROEI gets even close to 1. My guess is somewhere around 5 or 6. But that's on a well by well basis. Industry-wide we need to take into account dry holes and other energy expenditures that don’t come into the accounting on successful production. For us that’s a “sunk cost” and doesn’t have a bearing on the next well evaluation. A company drills 10 dry holes and burns X Btu in the process has a very negative EROEI to say the least. But if one calculates the EROEI of even marginally successful wells they’ll have a positive EROEI.

This is the biggest problem the general public has appreciating that the oil patch isn’t nearly as profitable as they think. They’ll hear that ExxonMobil had a yearly revenue of $XX billion and think that’s all profit. But they have no idea how much XOM spent, including dry hole and dead end projects, to generate that cash flow. Selling oil for $100/bbl doesn’t create an obscene profit if you spent $90/bbl to develop that production. Likewise the energy spent to drill just the successful wells doesn’t tell the full cycle EROEI story either.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 10:45:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'n')o one gives a rat's behind if I use a million BTUs or a Quadrillion BTUs to get the work done, but they do care if I use the more expensive ($$) of the two.


The overall economy does care, and will come back to bite you in the a$$. In the long run, the economy balances itself out based on energy and resources, not money.


Really? So all those free solar BTUs the Coalinga oil field project collects to help make steam, those wild amounts of BTUs stolen from the sun will bother the economy somehow? We'll get a recession maybe? A depression? We're using up solar resources faster than the sun can make them? The million pounds of hydrogen used to create the infinitesimal amount captured to help make steam will speed up peak hydrogen on the sun perhaps?

Sounds pretty bad! Have you told anyone about this idea, particularly the people using solar to generate electricity? They might like to know that the economy might crash in the long run because they aren't being miserly enough with the hydrogen being consumed on the sun.

Do you have any recommendations on what they SHOULD do? Immediately cease using solar power and burn plentiful natural gas perhaps? Coal? Build nukes? Seems to me like those alternatives are even worse than collecting sunlight, but I must be thinking about this in some half truthed kind of way I guess.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Strummer » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 10:50:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'R')eally? So all those free solar BTUs the Coalinga oil field project collects to help make steam, those wild amounts of BTUs stolen from the sun will bother the economy somehow? We'll get a recession maybe? A depression? We're using up solar resources faster than the sun can make them?


No, not those. But those BTUs that get consumed in China and elsewhere in manufacturing to feed your consumption, while creating those 17 trillions of your debt will. There's a huge amount of resource consumption (and associated "externalities") that the west outsourced to other countries, while pretending that that resource consumption does not exist. But as I said, in the long run it will have its consequences.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 11:46:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'w')hat Loki, Dorlomin and myself have all just agreed to. It is nice to see that we are all on the right track, and that the amount of energy used to do any given amount of work is irrelevant

I said what now? I think you are deliberately being dishonest in what I said.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')color=#FF0000]the amount of energy used to do any given amount of work is irrelevant[/color]
A quote worth being put up in lights.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 11:52:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')I'm pathologically honest, I can squeeze out a fib if my back is against the wall, but it goes against every grain of my being. One reason I keep my mouth shut most of the time.


Same here. :)

Well that takes chutzpah.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 13:00:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'R')eally? So all those free solar BTUs the Coalinga oil field project collects to help make steam, those wild amounts of BTUs stolen from the sun will bother the economy somehow? We'll get a recession maybe? A depression? We're using up solar resources faster than the sun can make them?


No, not those. But those BTUs that get consumed in China and elsewhere in manufacturing to feed your consumption, while creating those 17 trillions of your debt will.


So the Chinese using solar BTUs will crash the economy? Really? What is the exchange rate between the Chinese economy and the yuan it pays the sun for providing all that energy? I always thought that the energy was free, it is converting it into the ability to do work that caused all the problem?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '
')There's a huge amount of resource consumption (and associated "externalities") that the west outsourced to other countries, while pretending that that resource consumption does not exist. But as I said, in the long run it will have its consequences.


Agreed. One day, the sun with hit peak hydrogen, and then there will problems the likes of which we can't even imagine. THEN it will be time for what has historically been the reaction to peak oil claims.

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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 13:07:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '[')color=#FF0000]the amount of energy used to do any given amount of work is irrelevant[/color]
A quote worth being put up in lights.[/quote]

Agreed.

The confusion between energy and the work done by it is pretty substantial.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 13:09:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')I'm pathologically honest, I can squeeze out a fib if my back is against the wall, but it goes against every grain of my being. One reason I keep my mouth shut most of the time.


Same here. :)

Well that takes chutzpah.


Nope. I was just being honest. :)
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Strummer » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 13:10:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'S')o the Chinese using solar BTUs will crash the economy? Really?


No, the chinese using oil and coal BTUs for your consumption, which you are not paying for, accumulating debt instead.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 13:24:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'S')o the Chinese using solar BTUs will crash the economy? Really?


No, the chinese using oil and coal BTUs for your consumption, which you are not paying for, accumulating debt instead.


Of, yes, I see. I had been referring to using free BTUs previously, and implying that I could use as many of those as I want without effecting much of anything. Certainly, we should stop using fossil fuels as soon as is reasonable, but that seems more like just a good stewardship of the planet type angle.

Also not a likely scenario because using the fossil fuels is both a habit, and pretty easy to do, if you have laying around, or can afford to buy them from others.
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