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Peak Oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Mon 28 Oct 2013, 14:00:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')TOD closed shop for other reasons, and the "Three Nails" article actually confirms peak oil, as stated in the comment shared earlier and the author's reply to that.


TOD closed up shop for reasons already discussed previously. Feel free to contradict the head of ASPO on this very forum, he was quite happy to admit the same overall conditions of retreat with regard to his organization and why the annual conference went bye-bye.

Three Nails has already been characterized appropriately, to whit, It ain't peak when oil production is increasing, the resource pyramid matters, the USGS was right and oil engineers are paid well for a reason and continue to do their jobs well.

Feel free to dispute Euan all you'd like, I would recommend you get them to allow you to post a piece at TOD explaining how peak oil is all true...except for everything Euan said anyway. :lol: Good luck with that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
') The rest of your points were dealt with in this thread and in others, i.e., demand is being met with unconventional oil, and that counters points about reserves.


Certainly we have already discussed what the Three Nails article said. Don't like what the EDITORS of TOD, the PERSON who wrote the final post are saying about how poorly things went? Take it up with them. Or him. Assuming you can get them to talk, the stain of the association might keep them real quiet.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Mon 28 Oct 2013, 15:45:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I')t ain't peak when oil production is increasing, the resource pyramid matters, ...


It is way past Peak Conventional Spindletop gusher Oil when demand falls (due to economic collapse) and price per barrel keeps rising because all the cheap sources are gone, gone, gone.


Demand falling is not caused only by collapse. Whale oil demand went down and it certainly wasn't because of the crash from the roaring 20's. Oil demand at small levels, say the household level, can, and does, collapse, with nothing but a different lifestyle choice. Ride a bicycle. Move closer to work. Ride the bus. If oil was being treated as the valuable commodity it is, it should already be priced at $500/bbl and humans can go about figuring out how they wish to work around that particular problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')The reason we are scrambling to deeper depths down that "resource pyramid" you and I have both posted about is because the high-quality (cheap good ole' sweet oil) stuff is gone and now we are getting desperate for anything to burn.


In terms of oil, the easy stuff was already disappearing by 1901. You have been born, and raised, in a world where the high quality stuff had already disappeared. Do you think your life has been diminished because of it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')After all, we mustn't lose sight of our prime directive, which is to burn all possible carbon sources, acidify the oceans, kill the phytoplankton and make Earth uninhabitable for oxygen breathing fauna. :twisted:


I am forced to agree with you that based on the empirical evidence, humans are certainly planning on burning all possible carbon sources, come what may. Interesting that if peak oil had happened when claimed, and with the expected consequences, it might have helped to mitigate against this one. Turns out, the consequences were way oversold, and it is becoming obvious that not only can't peak oil be used to mitigate against burning more carbon, it has even bothered traffic jams.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 01:33:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I')n terms of oil, the easy stuff was already disappearing by 1901. You have been born, and raised, in a world where the high quality stuff had already disappeared.


It may have "already been disappearing" but Id disagree with what I think your trying to say there John. I would think after studying the industry, and all I have learned over the last 10 years researching this stuff, that sometime between post WWII and the early 60's saw the beginnings of really hardcore efforts to find new oil, and saw the really "easy" gusher type wells begin real decline.

Since then EROEI has really become a factor. its becoming a significant issue for price moves, investment, and capex of any new production. We stopped sticking straws in the ground somewhere before 1970ish and getting "easy" oil.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Loki » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 01:52:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I')n terms of oil, the easy stuff was already disappearing by 1901.

Cynical, half-truth bullshit. Typical of your posts.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 10:04:02

Already disappearing <> had already disappeared.

Back to the ignore list.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 10:26:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I')n terms of oil, the easy stuff was already disappearing by 1901.

Cynical, half-truth bullshit. Typical of your posts.


Learn the difference between a spudding beam and the rotary table and the truth shall set you free. Ignorance of the technological changes allowing the development of what was once "unconventional" but is now considered "easy" by those who have no knowledge of the history of oil and gas drilling is not unexpected.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 10:31:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')alf-truth bullshit. Typical

Well, not really BS.


Damn right. May I recommend AAPG Memoir 86 for the uninitiated in the world of resource estimates and how the resource pyramid works? Certainly the scientist types wrote it versus bloggers and social commentators and whatnot, and it doesn't necessarily support any peak oil angle, so it has been primarily ignored by those who wish to believe, rather than think and discover for themselves the particulars on this topic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')John_A is merely confirming that fact.
Edwin Drake oil (circa 1859) was much easier to get at and out of the ground than ThunderHorse oil


More like repeating that fact. People continue to make the mistake of thinking that what has happened since 1859, and the disappearance of the "creamy nuget" soon thereafter, is any different than what is happening now. This history part, one recognized by and discussed extensively by economists, is usually ignored in a rush to building out a particular belief system.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')The real question is when have we (or will we) recognize that we are/have crossed over into the next lower layer on that pyramid?


Just read the papers?

http://www.offshore-technology.com/feat ... -gas-boom/
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 15:08:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')@John_A

But here's the thing (or two):
1) Methane hydrates are not crude oil
2) Unleashing of the methane hydrates probably means the end of the habitable Earth as we knew it (EOTHEAWKI)


1) You are right. But what is distributed to consumers isn't crude oil. It is gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. And we manufacture that from all sorts of things. Crude oil is just one. Dirt, is another.

Image

Hydrates? They are already manufacturing liquid fuels from natural gas, do you really think there is any difference from a chemical engineers viewpoint about doing the same thing with just CH4?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearl_GTL

2)Yup...they have the potential to be very, VERY bad news. Unfortunately, that Pandora's Box has already been opened, as mentioned above. And the instant you talk about hydrate resources and the resource pyramid, and listen to the experts like the DOE folks at conferences, the numbers they discuss can only be described as mind boggling. Pandora's Box indeed.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 16:24:05

Serious scientific gatherings don’t usually feature calls for mass political resistance, much less direct action and sabotage. But then again, Werner wasn’t exactly calling for those things. He was merely observing that mass uprisings of people – along the lines of the abolition movement, the civil rights movement or Occupy Wall Street – represent the likeliest source of “friction” to slow down an economic machine that is careening out of control.
from the link above

Occupy Wall Street didn't want to slow down the economic machine. They just wanted more of the goodies to go to them instead of to the 1%.

The whole idea that socialism is inherently more environmentally friendly than capitalism doesn't stand up to examination. Perhaps the greatest collection of environmentally devastated places you can find on earth today are military bases and manufacturing sites run by the socialists in the USSR. The only notable drop in CO2 production in the last 50 years occurred not because of the Kyoto Treaty, but because the filthy polluting factories of the USSR closed down when socialism collapsed there.

Environmentalism, National Parks, appreciation of Wilderness are all basically American social ideals, that grew out of an America that was so wealthy due to capitalism that it could afford to set aside vast expanses of forest and other lands and permanently close them to development.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 16:45:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', 'I')nterestingly, this appeared over at the HuffPo site:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it was Werner’s own session that was attracting much of the buzz. It was titled “Is Earth F**ked?” (full title: “Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical Futility of Global Environmental Management and Possibilities for Sustainability via Direct Action Activism”). ... the bottom line was clear enough: global capitalism has made the depletion of resources so rapid, convenient and barrier-free that “earth-human systems” are becoming dangerously unstable in response. When pressed by a journalist for a clear answer on the “are we f**ked” question, Werner set the jargon aside and replied, “More or less."

:(


The Earth has been f**ked for quite some time, stretching back to Malthus at the least. But we never appear to be f**ked in the quite the way planned. In the 1970's the world as a whole was given 15-20 years by Harvard biologists. Ehrlich was at his peak hysterical level about then as well, mass starvation by 1975, urban dwellers would need gas masks to survive the pollution within a decade, crude oil gone by 2000. As good a doomer porn as anything put out by Guy McPherson nowadays. NTE!!

http://www.freedomworks.org/blog/joncga ... h-day-1970

To be honest, the claims back then sounded quite a bit worse than what most people are trying to push nowadays. So people are saying it sounds quite bad now as well? Okay. I believe they honestly believe what they say. But the question is, are they any more right than all of the other folks who have been saying similar things over your lifetime, or the last century, or even the one before that?
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 03:52:47

It's probably because socialism can take the form of state capitalism, or even one with export processing zones. Environmental regulations can be loosened to keep costs low. Perhaps China might serve as a good example.

One might argue that China should follow industrialized countries which have less pollution, but it is likely that the pollution was outsourced together with labor to poorer countries.

Given that, one can conclude that there are no other "rules" for capitalism. The system is essentially one that involves increasing money supply through profit and interest, with increased used of resources to back up that credit, and both increased further given competition. The inevitable results are crises due to debt, peak oil, and environmental damage coupled with global warming.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 08:18:29

"Methane hydrates: a new gas boom?" Just a thought: before inferring a boom in any new play perhaps it would be reasonable to wait until at least the first commercial development takes place. A theoretical "boom" doesn't really help the energy situation very much.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 17:15:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;Methane hydrates: a new gas boom?" Just a thought: before inferring a boom in any new play perhaps it would be reasonable to wait until at least the first commercial development takes place. A theoretical "boom" doesn't really help the energy situation very much.


True. And those who ignored the theoretical unconventional resource boom could never, EVER have predicted the faster growing oil production in the history of the United States generated by it. Future development tends to stay in the future...until it happens. Let us not forget....peak oil...1989.....Colin Campbell. Why did he declare peak then? Because he couldn't see in the future where the oil would come from.

Until it did.

Then great laughing and chuckling ensued, but that is a different story.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 17:20:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;Methane hydrates: a new gas boom?"


Oh...and nobody wants hydrates for their methane..methane isn't worth squat. I want it for making synthetic crude. So mark up another bad call for idiot journalists with no experience with resource to reserve conversion.

But that Japanese hydrate production Rock? The equivalent of about 70 bbl/day synthetic crude.

How is this for a mental image....it can make more oil from that methane than Drakes well did. :lol:

Drakes well landed you with a pretty nice job centuries later....and there are more hydrates than there is oil to be produced. The problem isn't the resources, any economist can tell you that, the problem is turning Earth into Venus.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 17:35:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')The Earth has been f**ked for quite some time, stretching back to Malthus at the least. But we never appear to be f**ked in the quite the way planned.

What are you talking about now Shorty?

When did Malthus claim the "Earth has been f**ked "?
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 17:37:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Oh...and nobody wants hydrates for their methane..methane isn't worth squat.
Do you have a source for this claim?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') want it for making synthetic crude.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem isn't the resources, any economist can tell you that
Are you just throwing out statements to fish for a reaction?
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 30 Oct 2013, 17:58:02

"But that Japanese hydrate production Rock? The equivalent of about 70 bbl/day synthetic crude." From: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/a ... cs/275275/ :

"If Mann's data on methane hydrates is correct, then Japan's experiment so far has taken 10 years and $700 million to produce four million cubic feet of gas, which is worth about $16,000 at today's U.S. gas prices, or about $50,000 at today's prices for imported LNG in Japan. At this point, it is an enormously expensive experimental pilot project, and nothing more. We do not yet know when it might be able to recover commercial volumes of gas, or at what rate, or at what price. We have no reason to believe that if commercial quantities are recoverable by 2018 as Japan hopes--which seems incredibly optimistic--that the price of that gas will be competitive with imported LNG."

So yeah..." boom" is more than a little absurd. I can only assume they are chumming for folks who only read the headlines and don't bother to read the rest of the story let alone check out other ounces.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Thu 31 Oct 2013, 13:14:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Oh...and nobody wants hydrates for their methane..methane isn't worth squat.
Do you have a source for this claim?[quote]

Image
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Thu 31 Oct 2013, 13:15:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '.').. the problem is turning Earth into Venus

But, but, Venus is the goddess of love.
So what could possibly be bad about turning Earth into Venus? :wink:


For the Earth? Nothing. Long term the planet won't care. Humans will I imagine.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Thu 31 Oct 2013, 13:17:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')
So yeah..." boom" is more than a little absurd.


Journalists don't write about things to NOT attract attention.

But my Prometheus statement stands...when paying attention to the future....from such small beginnings... 8)
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