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Peak Oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 09:52:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'J')ohn_A has a agenda here. He speaks from script. He's what people call a 'plant'. :)


Well, after finishing my levitation lessons this morning from some local ancient Egyptians, I am a bit tired and not quite on my game. :lol: Perhaps the world would look different if I heavily self medicated? :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 09:57:57

There is a time and a place, is VM's greatest challenge. By grace he's kicking along still old enough to be most of our Pops literally and enjoying himself.
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Re: Peak Oil dead? --No Truthiness is Dead

Unread postby John_A » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 10:02:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('godq3', '
')I don't understand that you don't see that the price is already to high for advanced economies without own oil.


Please define "already too high" using some words related to economics. Economists do not say "price is too high", they speak in terms of what a higher, or lower, price means. More people will use it, less will use it, people will conserve and/or change their behavior, people will use something else.

If you object to the $$ you pay for oil, the economic answer for how to fix that is....use less. Works at the personal level, works for businesses and countries, works for everyone, every time. Will you LIKE it? Maybe not...but the basics of economic theory doesn't care about that either. The theory says you, or someone else, or everyone else, will react to price stimuli, and this then changes the dynamics of a particular system. The theory does not say you will LIKE the change in dynamics in a particular system.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('godq3', '
') Don't you see that the US is traped in quantitative easing, and the EU in debt crisis?


Don't like idiot political leadership? Vote in new idiot political leadership, see if they do any better.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('godq3', '
')EU GDP is below 2007 level! If we would base our world on unconventional oil, the economy would crash because it's EROEI is below 10, so it's not a solution, and the BAU barely continues only because we still have plenty of conventional oil, but we have less and less of it every year.


You make some really, REALLY bad assumptions in this paragraph that you treat as a given. They are not.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Threepwood » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 10:16:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you object to the $$ you pay for oil, the economic answer for how to fix that is....use less. Works at the personal level, works for businesses and countries, works for everyone, every time.


In a free market maybe, but it doesn't work when the market price is buried by taxes (Europe) or subsidies (Asia). In the U.S. we see the price at the pump fluctuate with the commodity, but most of the world does not, they see the same artificial price no matter what, & the share of the market that is relatively free keeps shrinking
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 10:57:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threepwood', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you object to the $$ you pay for oil, the economic answer for how to fix that is....use less. Works at the personal level, works for businesses and countries, works for everyone, every time.


In a free market maybe, but it doesn't work when the market price is buried by taxes (Europe) or subsidies (Asia).


My solution is PERFECT for the stated problem. Doesn't matter who is creating a higher price. Don't want to pay $10/gal? for gasoline? Don't USE that gallon of gasoline...save the $10. I don't care who GETS the $10, they won't be getting it from you, me, a county, state, country, continent.

A more economically oriented answer would work like this....stop looking at the UNIT price, and focus on the gross price. I pay $10/gal, and use 10 gallons a month. My total expenditure is $100 month. Those greedy tax and spend Republicrats decide to tax the gasoline to double the price! Suddenly, my per unit cost is $20/gal, and if I make no changes in my behavior, this gasoline now costs me $200 month!! Doze bastids!!

Do I stop using ALL gasoline to mitigate this change? No. I still need the value of driving around in my car, it just became twice as expensive, OpEx wise. So I use 5 gallons a month, I conserve and prioritize..and presto.....I am now more efficient, and spend no more money after a doubling in price than I did before. Economic theory really, really likes this answer, it is BUILT around exactly this sort of reaction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ThreepWood', '
') In the U.S. we see the price at the pump fluctuate with the commodity, but most of the world does not, they see the same artificial price no matter what, & the share of the market that is relatively free keeps shrinking


So they react as expected. As do Americans. I certainly have reacted to increased fuel prices since 2008. Certainly you must know people who have as well?
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Re: Peak Oil dead? --No Truthiness is Dead

Unread postby dsula » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 11:07:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I')n other words, the decision for any well or project is based on the $$ spent and revenue created, not on BTUs input or output.

That's correct. It's hidden in the $$ of the balance sheet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The problem being, the clever young man did not say HOW he was going to create those BTUs to be turned into work for Rockman. He proceeds to build two dams behind the location, expending untold BTUs in the process, he then builds one of these to go along with it:

That's correct. BUT, the clever young man's dam project better be very good on EROEI to be able to support the conversion waste.

Bottom line is simple. Coal, Oil and Gas supply the majority of the energy to do WORK. If you argue that EROEI does not matter to get those fuels you need an alternative source that can be used in their production. If I wildly assume that the EROEI of oil is < 1, but people still want oil and are willing to pay any price for it, where do you suggest will the energy come from to get 80MB oil/day? From solar panels? Careful now, solar panels need oil to manufacture and deploy, quickly we find ourselves in a circular conversion dilemma.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Threepwood » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 11:15:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o they react as expected. As do Americans. I certainly have reacted to increased fuel prices since 2008. Certainly you must know people who have as well?


Well we agree there is a reaction to any price change, even if it's switching to regular. Point being; the more a price is fixed one way or another by politicians, the less elastic the demand becomes thereafter, the less it reacts to the fundamentals which are buried. So this disrupts the natural supply/demand dynamics of the market= less efficiency= more expensive in the long run.

i.e. with no tax a 50% increase in crude might translate to the same % increase at the pump,
but when 90% of the cost is already a static tax per gallon, fluctuations in that 10% real price don't matter as much
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Re: Peak Oil dead? --No Truthiness is Dead

Unread postby John_A » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 11:38:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I')n other words, the decision for any well or project is based on the $$ spent and revenue created, not on BTUs input or output.

That's correct. It's hidden in the $$ of the balance sheet.


It isn't hidden. It is converted into $$, at which point, we aren't talking about amounts of energy anymore, but the work we want done, and the value of that work. I can spend the exact same amount of $$, and use 10X the BTU input, and NOTHING on that balance sheet changes. Therefore, by definition, you CAN'T do the EROEI calculation from a balance sheet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The problem being, the clever young man did not say HOW he was going to create those BTUs to be turned into work for Rockman. He proceeds to build two dams behind the location, expending untold BTUs in the process, he then builds one of these to go along with it:

That's correct. BUT, the clever young man's dam project better be very good on EROEI to be able to support the conversion waste.


I have designed the clever young man's EROEI in such a way as to be DISASTROUS to prove a point. All that matters is whether or not he can make a buck taking 1,000,000,000,000 BTUS and turning it into a meager electrical supply for Rockmans drilling rig. BUT HE MAKES MONEY DOING IT. It is the core of why EROEI isn't in the balance sheet. It isn't on Rockmans AFE to drill a well. And in the history of the world it has never been the go/no-go criteria for drilling a single well, or developing a single oil project. Ever.

The only explanation for why peak oil has latched onto EROEI that appears to make sense is that some require a veneer of science to try and counteract the appearance of blind faith in the concept. Real, live, critical thinkers who bought into peak oil hard, after some years of things just not working out as they were supposed to, figure out this for themselves. To them, it is not just blind faith, and they react accordingly.

Some figure it out early.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... oomer.html

Some require a little more time.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10093

Some tuck tail and run, hoping that time will remove the stain of association.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059

Some will continue to rail against the machine until they die, unable to ever reconcile their zealotry with reality.

http://prn.fm/tag/mike-ruppert/
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 11:45:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threepwood', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o they react as expected. As do Americans. I certainly have reacted to increased fuel prices since 2008. Certainly you must know people who have as well?


Well we agree there is a reaction to any price change, even if it's switching to regular.


Sure. That is a standard substitution. Here is another which wouldn't exist is some people objected to spending hard earned dollars on OpEx even when gasoline wasn't >$3/gal.

How many million of these things are moving about nowadays, each one conserving as it goes?

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threepwood', '
')Point being; the more a price is fixed one way or another by politicians, the less elastic the demand becomes thereafter, the less it reacts to the fundamentals which are buried. So this disrupts the natural supply/demand dynamics of the market= less efficiency= more expensive in the long run.


Well, I won't argue with the particulars of economic theory, because what you call "disruption" is just another economic reaction to stimuli. You can argue that someone becoming more efficient individually leads to more expensive in the long run, economics says this then causes even more reaction and given this continues forever, either gasoline will reach infinity about the time no one is using it anymore. The extremes of economic theory just don't work, although they do explain the reactions to extreme events along the way. But the functions are asymptotic at the limits, and just don't make sense. Fortunately, those extremes just don't happen, for the same reasons that economics works...people change their behavior and create a singularity as a new paradigm arrives. For example, the sudden disappearance of gasoline manufacturing causes a huge shift into diesel manufacturing and the resulting hiccup in the normal system. Three more Ghawars are discovered tomorrow afternoon in the Permian Basin and begin producing immediately. Extremes are extremes, and can move events and markets in either, or unforeseeable, directions.
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Re: Peak Oil dead? --No Truthiness is Dead

Unread postby dsula » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 12:06:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'T')he only explanation for why peak oil has latched onto EROEI that appears to make sense is that some require a veneer of science to try and counteract the appearance of blind faith in the concept. Real, live, critical thinkers who bought into peak oil hard, after some years of things just not working out as they were supposed to, figure out this for themselves. To them, it is not just blind faith, and they react accordingly.


ENERGY makes life easy and comfortable. Because it does the WORK for you. WORK you otherwise have to do YOURSELF. You know, shoveling, cutting, plowing, etc.

Energy that has > 1 EROEI is called a SOURCE. Energy that has < 1 EROEI is called a SINK.
There must be at least ONE source to supply the ENERGY to do WORK.
IF coals and oil and gas become SINKS, then obviously some other energy must be the SOURCE to provide the energy for those SINKS.

So I repeat the question. What do you think is the SOURCE to supply the energy once oil, gas, coal become SINKS. Solar panels?

You understand the problem, right? Oil and gas and coal are the PRIMARY SOURCE of energy, meaning they supply about 90% of the planets energy use.

So even I the world wants to buy 80MB of oil /day and the oil is produced at a miserable EROEI of 0.5, where does the energy come from to make it happen?
You got a cheap source in the works in your basement?

Holy shit is it really that difficult?
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Threepwood » Fri 25 Oct 2013, 12:24:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere is another which wouldn't exist is some people objected to spending hard earned dollars on OpEx even when gasoline wasn't >$3/gal.


It wouldn't exist without massive govt subsidy to build the car on one hand and the inflated fuel prices to force them into it on the other

without either, you could have a car that can survive a collision with a rabbit for the same or smaller OpEx .

You can't dismiss market economics as subjective.
When you reduce the relationship between cost of production and cost to the consumer, as taxes and subsidies do, you reduce the ability of the market to self correct.
Your 'stimuli' needs to be constantly managed by politicians with all the superior competence, wisdom and integrity they are so famous for,
how many dozens of Chevy Volts do we see on the road for all the spending of other people's hard earned money?
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Re: Peak Oil dead? --No Truthiness is Dead

Unread postby John_A » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 12:15:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')
ENERGY makes life easy and comfortable. Because it does the WORK for you. WORK you otherwise have to do YOURSELF. You know, shoveling, cutting, plowing, etc.


Energy and work are not the same things.

Rockman doesn't give a rat's behind about the amount of ENERGY put into running his drilling rig, he cares about it being able to do a certain amount of work. For the ability to do a given amount of work (run the drawworks say) Rockman doesn't care if that requires 1 billion BTUs of input energy or 1 trillion BTUs, he will take whichever is cheaper in terms of $$$. Which is why EROEI doesn't work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Energy that has > 1 EROEI is called a SOURCE. Energy that has < 1 EROEI is called a SINK.


The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics says that all EROEI<1, within a system. Those who do not understand have constructed a particular metric to PRETEND that EROEI matters by excluding some of the energy input they don't like, and counting only that which they do.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')So I repeat the question. What do you think is the SOURCE to supply the energy once oil, gas, coal become SINKS. Solar panels?


There are two SOURCES of energy available to humans. Radioactive decay and the local nuclear furnace.

All the fossil fuels are not SOURCES of anything, they are the residual scum scrapped off the bottom of your fry pan after you cook the bacon too long, the geologic feces of the planet as it grinds up nice people and plants and boils them until all that is left are the component scum of carbon and hydrocarbon. They are a waste product. A very useful one I might add.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')You understand the problem, right? Oil and gas and coal are the PRIMARY SOURCE of energy, meaning they supply about 90% of the planets energy use.


I understand the problem. Oil and gas are not SOURCES of anything. People who were making up net energy excuses for why drilling in the US stop around the year 2000 didn't understand that any better than those using the same bad ideas today.

Energy is nice, and is required to do work. But work per unit $$....and that means that energy calculations aren't hidden in balance sheets, Rockman isn't actually calculating ENERGY anything when he pretends to do EROEI (he wants WORK done, not BTUs delivered) and for goodness sake none of this is HARD, why people insist on pretending it is, is beyond me.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Holy shit is it really that difficult?

Apparently it is. How in the world someone can think that historical solar energy is somehow a SOURCE is even worse an understanding of how energy, power and work function than how poorly the amateurs screw up the history, facts and future of the peak oil concept itself.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby John_A » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 12:30:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')In John_A's case, I would hope that comes when he digs down his IHPOR (Infinite Height Pyramid Of Resources) to the level where we're scrambling to get more dylithium crystals from Oboron-7 or more Unobtanium from Pandora.


You don't need to make up silly resources...there are already plenty of others to be discussed. For example, exactly these issues were on the table for discussion at the 33rd Annual Oil Symposium conference held just last week at the Colorado School of Mines.

Undoubtedly many attended from the peak oil world, although I didn't spot any. Of interest was a global resource modeler for the EIA. His presentation focused on the concept that the American oil shales could be used as a backstop to large scale cost/supply models. But he said that this wasn't completely required, and after enumerating the reasons why he might choose to use oil shales, he then presented this resource as another, and potentially even better, backstop.

http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pa ... rimer.html

No dilithium crystals required.

Of course, we are talking about scientists, resource experts from academia and government, and international folks with interests in these potential resources, undoubtedly they know far less than denizens at some random web forum or another. No one at the conference mentioned dilithium crystals. :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 16:21:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'J')ohn_A has a agenda here. He speaks from script. He's what people call a 'plant'. :)
Don't you mean 'a vegetable'?
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Lore » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 16:49:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'J')ohn_A has a agenda here. He speaks from script. He's what people call a 'plant'. :)
Don't you mean 'a vegetable'?


No, more like a rhododendron.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 17:39:40

OK...don't mean to get too pushy but I've been the designated 'plant' first at TOD long ago and now here. I'm not really into sharing the title.
p.s. - don't tell no body about my secret identity. And I prefer being known as a cactus...something of a prick at times, ya know.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Rune » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 17:55:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'O')K...don't mean to get too pushy but I've been the designated 'plant' first at TOD long ago and now here. I'm not really into sharing the title.
p.s. - don't tell no body about my secret identity. And I prefer being known as a cactus...something of a prick at times, ya know.


Why would anyone here call YOU a plant?

You walk the walk and talk the talk, as far as I can tell.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby Lore » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 18:02:52

Think about it. If Peak Oil is dead, we'll all have to go out and do some real living rather then wasting an inordinate amount of time discussing the minutia of the fossil fuel industry. We can't let that happen!!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Peak Oil dead?

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 26 Oct 2013, 19:08:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'G')as is down to $3.15 gal, gonna use my 10 cents gal off card today, $3.05 gal sounds good, eh.

Palin gas prices. :razz:


I paid less than $3/gal just this past weekend. Peak oil appears to be causing seasonal price changes again, you think?


You need to learn about why gasoline prices are seasonal. The Oil Drum | Refining 101: Summer Gasoline
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