[vision-master]

Gas is down to $3.15 gal, gonna use my 10 cents gal off card today, $3.05 gal sounds good, eh.

Palin gas prices.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', 'I')s Peak Oil dead? --No Truthiness is Dead.

The "New" Normal is to tell taller tales of Untruthiness than the ones told the day before.

Everyone back in the day understood what constituted the "oil" part of Peak Oil. Hubbert meant Spindletop gusher-type of cheap oil.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'G')as is down to $3.15 gal, gonna use my 10 cents gal off card today, $3.05 gal sounds good, eh.

Palin gas prices.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')(Of course there is that little bitty itty naggly problem of EROI. But hey, what's truth and thermodynamics got to do with any of this?

[ROCKMAN]

"According to Rockman, EROI is most that matters, but it's hidden in balance sheet $$ numbers." No so much whether EROEI matters more than the economics. The two are connected. It just that EROEI doesn't play a direct role in the calculation by the oil patch to drill or not. But it is in the balance sheet in that it would be very unusual for any project with an EROEI much less than 6 to pass the economic threshold. IOW ROR will kill a project long before EROEI could.

[sparky]

.
"According to Rockman, EROI is most that matters, but it's hidden in balance sheet $$ numbers."

It's not hidden , the price is the EROEI , at the time , at the place, including legal and political expenses
free market is pretty good at pricing things at their value .

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ohn_A » Thu 24 Oct 2013, 12:37:10 >>>> Watch it Threep....newbies are supposed to thrash around for awhile and at least PRETEND to be horrified before figuring out the obvious. Start here [at debunked], its a classic and still defines how people are SUPPOSED to feel about this topic.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threepwood', 'â')€˜Peak oil’ is alive and well, in the same place it always has been- 10 years in the imaginery future..

[Rune]

Except that the size of the pyramid keeps growing. Of course, it will stop growing sometime, but no one can accurately predict when.

And then the categories of "easily extracted" and "harder to extract" keep changing too, damn them.

If it were that simple, there would be no PeakOil.com. everyone would have been able to figure out the problem way back in the 19th century.

And we would have used the stuff to grow our civilization knowing full well that the day of maximum extraction would be April 14th, 2027. And we would know completely how our use/exrtraction curve would decline from that point onwards.

And we would know, in advance, just when and how much alternative energy technologies would have to be developed to take up the slack.

But we don't know those things, unfortunately.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threepwood', 'â')€˜Peak oil’ is alive and well, in the same place it always has been- 10 years in the imaginery future..

[Loki]

Good post Rockman. Especially like this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')Folks can predict what they want as far as future US or global oil flow rates. The numbers they offer don’t interest me nearly as much as the assumptions behind those predictions. Someone may say N. Dakota will be producing X bopd in 3 years. That’s great but I can’t evaluate the validity of that prediction if they don’t include the assumptions made. For instance, are they assuming $120/bbl oil or $70/bbl oil? Without offering the underlying assumptions they are merely tossing out an unsupported guess. Which isn’t worth a second look let alone a debate IMHO.

Same thing with the date of global PO: it's of little interest to me. But the future geopolitics, prices, military adventures, supply disruptions, ELM, etc....those are damn interesting to me. And none of them hinge on whether GPO happened a few years ago or not for another 10 years IMHO.

[sparky]

.
I concur with Loki and Rockman ,
the timing is hardly significant , the re-arrangement of power will be interesting to watch
I'm not sure I would wish to see some of the possible scenarios
from past history , the crumbling empires can get pretty messy

A lot of people see it as , there is no juice for the fridge , for lights , very individual
It's way bigger than that , whole part of the population will be racked with internal dissent
diminished wealth , low expectations .
Even the most cheery of the cornucopians do not foresee a return to 1960ies growth
in fact our present economic troubles are the warning shakes of the peak-oil Earthquake

[godq3]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Actually, some of experts in this type of work have mentioned how much is around, and they don't need Nepture and Jupiter to keep building gasoline and diesel fuel for some time yet.

[Threepwood]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Threepwood wrote:‘Peak oil’ is alive and well, in the same place it always has been- 10 years in the imaginary future..


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ort of like fusion power

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threepwood', '
')and not entirely dissimilar to wind and solar in terms of viably powering anything beyond garden ornaments.

[Threepwood]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')There is a gulf between a solar panel in Hamburg and one in Phoenix Arizona. But our new friend is not here for a nuanced discussion it seems.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')(Of course there is that little bitty itty naggly problem of EROI. But hey, what's truth and thermodynamics got to do with any of this?

[vision-master]

John_A has a agenda here. He speaks from script. He's what people call a 'plant'.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;According to Rockman, EROI is most that matters, but it's hidden in balance sheet $$ numbers." No so much whether EROEI matters more than the economics. The two are connected. It just that EROEI doesn't play a direct role in the calculation by the oil patch to drill or not. But it is in the balance sheet in that it would be very unusual for any project with an EROEI much less than 6 to pass the economic threshold. IOW ROR will kill a project long before EROEI could.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')(Of course there is that little bitty itty naggly problem of EROI. But hey, what's truth and thermodynamics got to do with any of this?