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IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 18:54:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
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The IEA now admits conventional petroleum production has peaked and faces steep declines, requiring ever increasing contributions from other kinds of flammable liquids.


Right...except that in looking at the chart, you can plainly see that even if you take the yellow bar off the top (nat gas) that the rise continues.

I mean...the site is specifcally NOT called Peak Conventional Oil, right? (or does the banner read differently when you pull the site up?...cos I see peakoil.com).


You didn't understand what you read. Yes, the yellow "natural gas" field didn't use to be considered oil---its got to go if you are going to compare current estimates of oil production with pre-2010 oil production.

But the green, brown red, and red fields are all imaginary. Take the red field---as Tanada just pointed out in his excellent post, no super-giant oil field has been found in 30 years, but the IEA is dreaming that in 15 years we'll be getting 10 million barrels of oil each day from fields that haven't even been found yet? How is that going to happen when it takes 10 years to get a field proven up and into production?

The green field is oil from fraking---might be true, but might not. I'm hopeful, but it remains to be seen.

And then we've millions of barrels per day coming from "enhanced oil recovery"---ie. magic to suck oil from existing fields starting just 5 years from now. Wheeee!

And the biggest component is the light blue--- discovered but not yet developed oil that includes the sub-salt fields off Brazil----which are so deep and hot nobody knows if they will ever be productive.

I suppose if you are Pollyana, you'd believe everything the IEA says, but all their past predictions have proven to be far too optimistic----IMHO the chances are good that this one is BS as well. :)
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 12 Feb 2013, 04:37:19

I am aware of the need for free exchange of information and opinion, but the information should be new (otherwise, we will see only the same information re-posted many times) and opinions informed (else we will see the same mistakes repeated across many forum sections). Given that, trolls should be allowed to post only in certain sections. That way, you get to humiliate them there, and they are unable to post their crap everywhere.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 12 Feb 2013, 07:00:40

The graph you're all looking at is from angel publishing : investment research. The graph is 5 years old.
The graph isn't rational ; It has production from oil undiscovered in 2008 being extracted in 2012.
The graph has been proven wrong ; Production of crude oil in 2011 and 2012 has exceeded values predicted in the graph.

That being said, at least the graph is going in the right direction. Up.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 12 Feb 2013, 08:21:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'I')'ve been posting the annual record oil production thread for at least 3 years. In all this time I haven't read a peaker who has the strength to fully face the reality of these new records. They often divert to another topic.
And I have countered endlessly that the "records" have been re-defintions of other liquids,

Erm, not really. All the oils considered are liquid \ condensate hydrocarbons. That definition has stood pretty much unchanged for over 100 years. We use them by reacting them with oxygen to make heat CO2 and water. This is a pretty straight forward definition. I don't see how the latest oil production methods go against this definition. Just cos a pipe is stuck in sideways rather than vertical doesn't change anything fundamental.

Also, even by the old conservative C&C standard, new monthly and annual production records have been set in 2011 and 2012.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he addition to the oil-production data base of liquids that have been recently redefined by the oil industry to fool suckers like you.

Could you list what these redefined liquids are? Along with the date of redefinition? What were they before?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')They want you to keep shopping, you f#cking moron.

umad bro? I know society wants to keep me shopping, don't get upset. I will keep shopping regardless of if the EIA and IEA redefine some oils.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Those liquids are either not even petroleum (corn liquor, aka ethanol. fry oil, aka biodiesel) or are petroleum byproducts that are not useful as oil replacements.

Wrong. You forgot the non-con production such as shale oil.
I don't see whats wrong with including recent biological sources of oil. All oil is biologically sourced. It's just some of it gets stuck in the ground for a while, then comes out again. Would it appease your definition of oil if I bought some vegatble oil from the supermarket, then buried it in a sandpit for 5 minutes then dug it out again?

Gasoline C8H18
Butane C4H10


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')When you can drive your car on lighter fluid aka butane.

Has anyone tried to breach your little delusion about butane and automotive transport?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autogas
Hydrocarbons create heat when they are burnt. Based on this it's practical to run an automobile on many hydrocarbons, including butane. Butane is a main component of autogas , the 3rd most popular fuel for automobiles in the world ( 16million cars + many other vehicles ) after gasoline and diesel. In many poorer countries car drivers just use butane rather than the autogas standard mix of butane and propane.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ',') come over to my house and I will show you my totally green, all natural, low-impact, sustainable environmentally superior septic system.
No thanks, we've got souped up compost heaps where I live as well.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')his is what we see here with pstarr's cost of oil graph. This should be in a different thread titled 'cost of oil'. But lets consider this diversion for a moment.Let's not. It would be a waste of my time.
it.[/quote]
Great. So don't bring cost of oil up ever again on PO.com. And when one of your doomer chums brings it up as a distraction to new oil records you'll be the first one to chastise them right?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y inclusion of that chart was not a diversion. It was a response to your little playmate's idiotic assertion that petroleum prices is not at historic highs.
It was your little playmate Expatriot that first injected oil cost into this thread as a distraction to the main topic, not Xy and not Econ101.
In todays wonderfully stable 1st world markets, it's easy to fall for the assumption that the stock-market price of a commodity is the absolute measure of the price of the commodity. As long as the market isn't in serious crisis, this assumption is correct. But you only have to turn a leaf in the books of history, or current world affairs to see that stock market price is only an proxy to the real cost. In the 1970s, the stock-market dollar cost of oil was high, but the real cost had actually broken the market. Most people couldn't get hold of oil no matter how many dollars they had.
Today the cost in inflation adjusted dollars is roughly the same or a bit higher than the 1970s cost. But today people own more inflation adjusted dollars than they did in the 1970s, and more importantly, surplus oil and oil products are actually highly available to buy on the stock market and at the petrol stations. In other words, assigning a price to a commodity that isn't in stock to buy is an absurdity that peakers wash over when they point to historic stock market cost of oil graphs and say 'cost of oil is higher now than ever'.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 12 Feb 2013, 15:19:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'A')ll the oils considered are liquid \ condensate hydrocarbons.
You know that some liquids recently called "petroleum" are not really, have been conflated with petroleum for political reasons. Ethanol corn liquor is not petroleum. Nor is rapeseed biodiesel. Both liquids require petroleum for their production; harvesting, fermenting, and distillation, and so are net-energy thieves.

I haven't ever seen ethanol corn liquor or rapeseed biodiesel called petroleum.
The reason these liquids are 'conflated' with petroleum is because they are all hydrocarbons that are useful as fuels. I think thats a pretty legit reason to group them. If you think otherwise you should start by phoning the ANSI and rant at them to remove the word 'hydrocarbon' or terms like it from all known language. I'm sure they'll agree with you its terrible to associate 2 liquids for the pathetic reason they are both hydrocarbons.
Petroleum isn't required for any part in the production of corn liquor or biodiesel.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve showed you this.

No you haven't. The world's breweries would be interested in you showing them how petroleum is necessary to create corn liquor. I've made liquor myself, not out of corn, and I didn't require any petroleum to make it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But you repeat your nonsence and waste my time. Therefore I have to assume you have a learning disability, are plain dumb, or are trolling this site.

Assume whatever you want to about me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'A')lso, even by the old conservative C&C standard, new monthly and annual production records have been set in 2011 and 2012.Not according to IEA.
That's because the IEA have never released world C&C production figures, and while were mentioning institutes which don't publish world C&C production, neither does the National Cat Groomer Institute of America. But just because neither IEA nor the NCGIoA mentions that world C&C production high records have been set, doesn't imply they haven't been set. Only the EIA publish world C&C figures.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he addition to the oil-production data base of liquids that have been recently redefined by the oil industry to fool suckers like you.
Could you list what these redefined liquids are? Along with the date of redefinition? What were they before? I owe you nothing, twerp. You have asked me to repeat data and facts endlessly,
I hardly ask anything of you pstarr. I don't think I've ever asked you to repeat anything, let alone a few times, or endlessly. Now since I've resolved that excuse for not giving me the list, could you please give me the list? I should point out I helped you in your understanding of peak oil for years by pointing out to you you're wrong about PO is NOW by posting IEA data. Also I've shown you are wrong with you're attempts to discount recent oil production because it's produced using new tech from new types of sources. So you are in debt to me really.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')you then lie, and offer this site nothing in return except trolling. You can stop annoying the adult now and go f#ck off.
I wouldn't lie to your pstarr. I've nothing to gain from doing so. Telling you the simple truth is fun enough! :p
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Wed 13 Feb 2013, 09:56:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '
')
That being said, at least the graph is going in the right direction. Up.


Yes, but is that really the right direction? We shouldn't want it to go up, we should be learning to do without, buying smaller cars, insulating our homes, not buying gasoline derived by these alternative products requiring the despoiling of the earth. Why don't people want to be happy, granola eating, bicycling, recycling, humans? Screw the oil, bring back the peace, free love and dope!
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Wed 13 Feb 2013, 15:45:24

Perhaps the confusion exists because some aren't familiar with how important liquid fuels are regardless of whether or not they are assembled from hydrocarbons?

If we could all drive non-hydrocarbon powered machines like these, not only would the world be a better place but we could all have alot more fun commuting to work!

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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby John_A » Wed 13 Feb 2013, 22:33:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o Buddy. Wrong Buddy. Pretty picture to the contrary.


I'm with Buddy. If that is what I can get for my non-hydrocarbon fueled transport, sign me up.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Thu 14 Feb 2013, 08:31:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')When you can drive your car on lighter fluid aka butane.

Has anyone tried to breach your little delusion about butane and automotive transport?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autogas
Butane is a main component of autogas , the 3rd most popular fuel for automobiles in the world ( 16million cars + many other vehicles ) after gasoline and diesel. In many poorer countries car drivers just use butane rather than the autogas standard mix of butane and propane.

Not quite a lie, but a misconception at best. Butane is only one component of autogas, the other being propane.

There was no misconception there. The 2 statements
- Butane is a main component of autogas
- Butane is only one component of autogas, the other being propane.
Are compatible.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But that is not the point. That only 16 million autos (out of 600 million) use autogas is telling. It requires special delivery, pipelines, compressors, pumping equipment, and special automobiles. It will never amount to a hill of digested beans.

Before you were ridiculing the idea that a single car could be run on butane. Now you seemed to have changed your mind : 16 millions vehicles + is not enough evidence to convince you butane is a decent hydrocarbon to fuel automobiles.
>That only 16 million autos (out of 600 million) use autogas is telling.
Yes, it hints at the fact autogas was set up as a standard long after gasoline and diesel had already been established.
Gasoline also requires special delivery, pipelines, compressors, pumping equipment, and special automobiles.
You don't seem to to have done your homework on LPG. It's advantages over gasoline and diesel are : lower cost, high efficiency, lower wear on engines and lower pollution. Right now it's rapidly gaining in it's world market share. One of the reasons for this is because the light hydrocarbon butane and propane are going to be more highly available than ever now we have so much light oil coming onto the market for decades to come. The only thing holding it back right now is lack of consumer awareness and the old fuels gasoline and diesel are so established.
So what the magic pstarr threshold? How many LPG vehicles does the world need to show butane is a useful fuel?
We'll probably find out. The market share of LPG is only going to get bigger in future.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')What is more telling is my intended point: since only 1/5 of natural gas liquids useful as oil replacments (the rest are chemical feedstocks) the EIA needs to reduce their measure of the contribution of NGL to peak-oil mitigation. By approximateloy 80%. So you misconstrue and EIA lies.
The EIA have already taken your intended point into account.
BTW Your 2005 peak C&C assertion was based on the EIA standard which hasn't changed since then. If EIA lies then you don't have any data to prop up your 2005 C&C peak.
And butane and propane are components of petroleum. There's a clue in the fuels name LPG - Liquid Petroleum Gas. Usually they are found in the best quality oil fields.

Now we can add you mischaracterization of corn ethanol (and rapeseed oil) as hydrocarbons.
In the strictest definition, petroleum isn't a hydrocarbon either. In has non carbon\hydrogen atoms in it. But for all our intents and purposes concerning its use as fuel, its near enough a hydrocarbon and so is ethanol and bio-oil. They are hydrogen and carbon molecules with 1 or 2 oxygen atoms in them. But they burn good enough to use them as fuel for cars just like gasoline, so thats good enough. To suggest that a slight chemical change that doesn't critically affect their ability to function as fuels invalidates them is misleading. Petroleum is created from plant carbohydrates. Don't be surprised if we can replace one with the other.
Now that I've made you aware that butane is as valuable as gasoline as a automotive fuel, do I need to tell you about plant oil? Most diesel engine cars will run on any type of plant oil ( as long as its warmed up a bit 1st ). Supermarket vegetable oil will work fine. Indeed, in times of high car fuel prices in the UK, there have mass buyouts of supermarket vegetable oil.
car fuel at the stations in the USA is 10-15% ethanol. In brazil its 25%. There's no technical reason why it can't go to 100%. Indeed suzuki has recently manufactured cars that will run on 85-100% ethanol.
You won't find a reason to discount NGLs or biofuel as a substitute for petroleum if you only consider their functionality as fuels, they function just fine.

Your little delusion that lighter fuel and camp stove fuel are somehow inferior to petroleum and how you keep trying to directly compare them shows you don't understand them. Butane and Propane are not petroleum, but are components of petroleum. They are distilled from petroleum.
Lighter fuel and camp stove fuel is the exact same stuff that works in LPG cars.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Thu 14 Feb 2013, 21:19:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o Buddy. Wrong Buddy. Pretty picture to the contrary.


Give me one of those non-hydrocarbon powered machines, you bring to the track anything you happen to have powered by hydrocarbon fuels, and we'll see which fuel is better!
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 20:49:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o Buddy. Wrong Buddy. Pretty picture to the contrary.


Give me one of those non-hydrocarbon powered machines, you bring to the track anything you happen to have powered by hydrocarbon fuels, and we'll see which fuel is better!


Buddy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest you seriously spend some time studying the relevant topics. Just because non-hydrocarbon fuels are perfectly useful doesn't mean they will be actually used. People would rather die than face the idea that their McMansion lifestyles and corresponding hopes for their children are gone.

You sound like a happy go lucky guy, you should probably reconsider that angle and get with the normal pessimism associated with resource scarcity, regardless of the claims of another ephemeral peak oil liquid fuels.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby John_A » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 22:22:28

Blessed are those who are still happy go lucky in the face of <fill in the blank based on your personal peak oil thoughts>. So we have more liquid fuels around than anyone suspected, yee-haw!

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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby John_A » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 22:43:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You are correct John-A, we have plenty of "liquid fuels." Whether they remain affordable, in the face of ever-increasing production costs, conventional oil depletion, and off-shore competition, is another question. A very scary question 8O


Scary to you and consumerist Americans maybe. I heartily recommend walking, bicycling and living in a place where those will get you everywhere you need to go. Let the car fools waste discretionary income on the remnants of a failed transportation system and the fuel to run it.
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