[Dybbuk]

It's all about sneering and mockery on here. Not much spirit of learning or understanding.

The cornies remind me so much of my sister in 2005, sneering at me because I thought the housing market was overvalued. "That's what they've been saying for ten years! Hahahaha!" (She was a California homeowner at the time)

I guess the doomers did their fair share of sneering too, back in the day. Probably like the Y2K alarmists, who looked down upon all the naive people who thought it might possibly all turn out OK.

But I wasn't around back then. And one good rule of thumb to use in any argument, is that the person who feels confident that they know what the future will hold, is probably the person you should ignore. Reality always has a way of blind siding you.

A collapse and die-off, and end of civilization as we know it, are very possible even without energy scarcity. And a cornucopian future of plenty is very possible, even if the more pessimistic projections of fossil fuel depletion come to pass.

But if you want to continue your game of trash talking, even though this game is still in the first inning, please carry on...

[Xyricolev]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dybbuk', 'I')t's all about sneering and mockery on here. Not much spirit of learning or understanding.

The cornies remind me so much of my sister in 2005, sneering at me because I thought the housing market was overvalued. "That's what they've been saying for ten years! Hahahaha!" (She was a California homeowner at the time)

I guess the doomers did their fair share of sneering too, back in the day. Probably like the Y2K alarmists, who looked down upon all the naive people who thought it might possibly all turn out OK.

But I wasn't around back then. And one good rule of thumb to use in any argument, is that the person who feels confident that they know what the future will hold, is probably the person you should ignore. Reality always has a way of blind siding you.

A collapse and die-off, and end of civilization as we know it, are very possible even without energy scarcity. And a cornucopian future of plenty is very possible, even if the more pessimistic projections of fossil fuel depletion come to pass.

But if you want to continue your game of trash talking, even though this game is still in the first inning, please carry on...

[Xyricolev]

Sorry Pstarr...the fact is that so far, the doomers are batting zero.

How many failed predictions does this make? Fifty? A hundred? I honestly lost count.

So far, there's no dieoff, and precious little need for your elaborate doomsteads.

But let me guess.....aaaaaany day now, the "cornies" will be proved wrong, yes?

Just like you were saying back in 2008, right?

As for your statement...I think I understand pretty well.

All the dire shite that the doomers preach...exactly none of it has come to pass, and we're supposed to be at a minimum, PO +5.

Yeah...I get it. Do you?

[Xyricolev]

Ahhh yes! I see you did do some editing...okay, your question was "where do I come up with this shite"

The "shite" in question was the current price of oil.

I was informed by a member of Team Doom that oil was at an all time high.

I checked the current price of oil and found it to be NOT at an all time high (as your own chart proves).

And yet...you ask where I come up with it? LOL

Lean in close and I'll tell you, but get ready...this may shock you.

I looked at the ACTUAL data....you know...the current market price? Yep...and guess what? As usual, that cruel mistress "reality" does not play well with fevered doomalacious fantasies. This is out and out shocking, I know, but....what can you do, right?

Now that I've answered yours, maybe you'll be so kind as to answer mine.

How many failed predictions are we up to just in the last eight years (not counting all the way back to the seventies when it first became all the conspiracy theorist rage)?

And what's the latest re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re revised date for "teh end of dayz?" Do tell!

And a bonus question if you're feeling especially brave. Given that exactly NONE of Team Doom's predictions have come to pass, even with multiple revisions on the doom date...how is it that you're still utterly convinced it'll be any day now that the "cornies" will be the ones with egg on their faces?

[Xyricolev]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', 'Y')es! The concept of fraking has been around for decades.

Yes, price is one of the components that make it profitable now, where it wasn't before, but it's not the only factor here

[dolanbaker]

It's not only the doomers who got it wrong, even the EIA got their estimates of oil production hopelessly wrong.


The real effect of peak oil, is not really to do with the "ultimate" peak in oil production, it's really to do with the inability of oil supply to grow fast enough to sustain economic growth at a level that allows for a win-win situation for consumers & business, this has been failing since about 2005 when the oil supply stopped growing for a while.

It took massive investment in more expensive sources of supply and energy substitution (biofuel, coal & gas to replace oil) to delay the end of growth as we know it. The current economic system is hard coded to operate with infinite growth and it is breaking up! There will be a reset soon of some sort as the current situation can't continue indefinitely, what form that reset will take, I don't know! The only thing I do know is that growth (globally) cannot continue and some economies will soon shrink.

As it is the Irish economy has shrunk considerably since 2008 and is still shrinking!

[Xyricolev]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou are over.

[Xyricolev]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou are over.

[meemoe_uk]

I've been posting the annual record oil production thread for at least 3 years. In all this time I haven't read a peaker who has the strength to fully face the reality of these new records. They often divert to another topic.
This is what we see here with pstarr's cost of oil graph. This should be in a different thread titled 'cost of oil'. But lets consider this diversion for a moment.


First, while inflation adjustment is an improvement over straight dollar cost, its still not the real cost. It ignores how many inflated dollars people hold, i.e. it assumes everyone has the same number of such dollars in 1913 as they do in 2013. This is even more relevant when it's considered that dollars were expensive to buy on the international money exchange for many decades. To take into account the number dollars people hold you need a purchasing power parity adjusted graph. PPP ( and not inflation adjusted ) is a standard for judging prosperity of a people. However, we can bypass money ( paper and 0s and 1s held on a computer ) altogether and just ask how much oil per person there is.
This is a much simpler and better way of judging the real cost of oil.



Does it look like a crisis to you?
For US citizens though, its not quite as good. For most of history they had the lions share of oil and the money of oil. Today their share is slipping a bit, but still car fuel in the US is still much cheaper than most places. They are just moaning as they adjust to paying the same amount as the rest of the world.

However, this attempt at diversion away from the record annual oil production ( indicator of prosperity ) to inflation adjust oil price ( indicator of doom and despair ) can be broadened further.
How much energy per person?

Here's a graph no doomer will post on PO.com....



Yup. Another win for the cornies. The average person in the world has more energy available to him now that ever. On top of that, the graph clearly shows how fossil fuels and modern energy has reduced the burden on the environment for supplying energy. i.e. No more need to deforrest an entire continent for fuel.

This attempt at diversion, true cost of energy, is actually a decent diversion based on an important question.
This is in contrast to the other popular diversion - conventions in the oil industry and market, which is an empty and desperate diversion that comes to nothing. Oil is oil is oil, no matter in which rock type its in, how you get it out, how you process it or how you consume it. If non-con oil really was so utterly awful like doomers fantasize it to be, then we wouldn't bother extracting it and oil production would have peaked years ago. Instead non-con oil is on average higher quality than conventional, and we've now got so much good stuff coming in that the refineries have potential to re-tool for further improvement, i.e. things are going to get better for consumers even if oil production stays the same ( oil production won't stay the same. Its going up for years to come ).

[Xyricolev]

Great charts, meemoe, and good info. I lurked for a long while on the site before actually putting in an appearance (this was back in the 2005-2008 timeframe). Same EXACT story with many of the same actors (yup, pstarr was here then too, sounding exactly the same, tho slightly more sober then--I guess when the apocalypse doesn't happen on schedule, it can make you a little crazy tho, so I forgive him. )

What puzzles me is how desperate he and others like him are to hold onto the myth.

They predict the "end of dayz" date. When it arrives and we DON'T see the "zombie hordes" (not literally...shorthand, remember? ) wandering the streets, instead of rethinking their positions, they continue the hysterics and pick a new date. There's never any sort of reevaluation of the core myths themselves...just a further and deeper entrenchment in the muck of the mythology....the various globe spanning conspiracy theories that must be true in order for the PO doom scenario to have a hope of coming to pass.

It got so bad by the time I left that the "new game" was to pretend that PO happened on schedule anyway (even tho we broke a new record during this game), to the point that they "switched to" how did they put it..."post peak lexicon" for a time.

ANYTHING to keep the dream alive, I guess.

I don't understand it, but after a five year absence (during which time we broke more production records and curiously DIDN'T see the world end), I figured I'd wander back to see if the server was still up and how we were doing against the zombie hordes.

Sure enough...five years later, the same folks are still here spouting the same doom. Aaaaaany day now.

I'm betting they'll go to their graves saying that phrase.

-=Xyr=-

PS: for the record, I got no problem with inflation adjusted price graphs (other than the obvious distraction that it represents away from the point and purpose of this thread on production). What matters to people in practical terms is how much gas they can afford to put in their tanks...at the end of the day, that comes down to how much it costs to do so, and by posting the price in inflation adjusted dollars, people can look at that number, compare it with what they have in their bank account now, and connect those dots...we're still on par with where we were coming off the oil shock of the seventies (before the price fell thru the floor due to an oil glut, caused by changes in OPEC that had more to do with politics than oil in the ground or refining), but I get what you're saying.

[Xyricolev]

(double post hunted down and eaten)

[Xyricolev]

Random side note: Honestly, the whole "that technology has been around for decades!" argument is a non starter in any case. Here are a couple other technologies that have been around for decades:

Computers
and
the internal combustion engine

To say that there haven't been (vast) incremental improvements in the output and operation of those technologies in the intervening decades is to squeeze your eyes tightly shut, plug your ears and scream "LALALALAALALALAL" as loudly as you can in a desperate attempt to avoid the truth.

Technologies are improved upon all the time. Oil related techs are no different.

That's why we can drill deeper and more efficiently than ever before, even tho the technology (at the base level) is essentially unchanged.

But meh...why let the truth get in the way of some good hysterics, right? It's all a lie...a conspiracy. Oil production is lower, not higher. Yesterday's spot price was a "record high" even tho it's been higher in the past.

And aaaaaany day now, the "cornies" will be the ones with egg on their faces, and have to eat a lot of humble pie for all times they poked fun at the stoic doomers.

Right Pstarr?

Just like back in 2008.

-=Xyr=-
(were you the wimpy kid that everybody picked on in school? Is that where all the impotent rage comes from?)