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IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 17:49:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', '
')Talking to you guys is actually even worse than arguing with a rock. You've already got your minds made up...already know where you want to end up (the end is nigh!) and you will demonize and villify ANYONE who deviates from the mythology.

I understand.


If you understand, why not just let a sleeping dog lie? So they want to believe that peak oil will destroy the world, or peak price will, or something like that. This is a pretty sleepy quiet place it seems to me, no point in antagonizing anyone, just stick around, learn the mindset, decide if you like the feel of it or not, and if not, move on. There is plenty of politics involved in this, you could join in on that if you don't like the world peak of oil production coming around again in 2012, which is admittedly somewhat distressing to those who know we need years to prepare, and it is here.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Xyricolev » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 18:29:39

no worries, buddy. i'm used to it. things haven't changed from 2005-2008. No biggie. as to why i'm here...i wasn't for a long time. i came back mostly out of curiosity.

last time i was here, the narrative was that any day now (a matter of weeks, at best) the world as we knew it was coming to an end. mass die offs, oil production falling off a cliff...apocalypse.

the end of days, and certainly the end of the world as we know it (this was 2005).

every time the price of oil increased (even by so much as a dime per barrel) it was seen as the beginning of the end, with all the requisite hysterics that you'd expect to come with that.

By 2008, when the world hadn't ended yet, a new narrative was created. Another of Simmon's deadlines had come and gone (the fourth? fifth? one I'd seen him give? I honestly don't remember now)...so the new narrative was to pretend that PO had happened, even to there was no real evidence to support that, and the big rage of the moment was for everybody to "update their lexicon" to reflect the new post peak reality.

That's when I'd had my fill, and decided to skip out (so I got myself banned...lol)

Years passed.

Life went on.

The world did not, in fact end.

And...eventually I got curious.

If I returned...what would I find?

Would the "PO happened, let's adjust our lexicon" game still be ongoing? would there be a new round of hysterics? Would they still be insisting that any day now, the "cornies" would finally be proved wrong?

It was like peeling a scab back. You know you should just leave it alone, but...sometimes you just can't.

So I headed back.

Amazingly, nothing has changed.

Any day now, the "cornies" will finally have egg on their face.

I don't know yet if we're still "post peak" but it looks like that game has fizzled.

The server's still up, we produced more oil last year than we ever have, and the zombie hordes are nowhere to be seen, but of course....you know...ANY day now.

Seriously. :)
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 18:53:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', ' ')(so I got myself banned...lol)

Bingo.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Xyricolev » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 19:02:16

Yep...bingo indeed. I didn't trust myself not to come back to continue to watch the train wreck unfold, so I took care of it. Bingo!
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Xyricolev » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 19:37:15

No...I intentionally acted out till I got banned when I knew I would be leaving, Ace. Anyway, dinner's ready. Will look for your next gem later!
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Xyricolev » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 19:48:48

right...cos you know...I was the first one out the gate with the whole "liar" thing. :) nice try, pstarr. :)
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 20:50:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', 'n')o worries, buddy. i'm used to it. things haven't changed from 2005-2008. No biggie. as to why i'm here...i wasn't for a long time. i came back mostly out of curiosity.


Things have changed since 2005. Peak oil happened, prices skyrocketed, peak oil transportation solutions came along which changed the paradigm, people started driving less, field declines were offset by more expensive fuel manufacturing and unconventionals, all SORTS of things have changed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', '
')last time i was here, the narrative was that any day now (a matter of weeks, at best) the world as we knew it was coming to an end. mass die offs, oil production falling off a cliff...apocalypse.


Sure. But that didn't happen, so everyone modified their outlook, most people left the arena, slow crashers started lording it over fast crashers, and now everyone argues about politics and global warming and stuff.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Xyricolev » Sun 10 Feb 2013, 21:34:02

LOL @ Pstarr...methinks you're projecting again. That's really all I can say to you. Next time you decide to leap into the midst of a conversation, read for context. It'll prolly help.

@ Buddy: that's certainly one interpretation, except that 2010, 2011 and 2012 all broke consecutive oil production records, which shouldn't be possible under PO mythology. So PO happened, except it didn't. And the apocalypse was magically diverted by a miraculous attitude change that saved the planet when nothing could.

It sounds nice, except that it's...you know...nuts. :)
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby John_A » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 00:00:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', '
')
@ Buddy: that's certainly one interpretation, except that 2010, 2011 and 2012 all broke consecutive oil production records, which shouldn't be possible under PO mythology. So PO happened, except it didn't. And the apocalypse was magically diverted by a miraculous attitude change that saved the planet when nothing could.

It sounds nice, except that it's...you know...nuts. :)


It isn't nuts, really. Its more like kick the can, which is okay as well, because we know it has to happen sooner or later. So it happened in 2010..and then 2011...and then 2012....big deal...it will STILL happen. I think the concern is more something you touched on earlier (perhaps not in this thread, but I noticed it) and that is more of the issue of price as it relates to supply/demand balance. A reasonable economic concept would be that humans use less, therefore need less, therefore price stays moderate and relatively affordable even as overall supply declines.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 00:21:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', ' ')2010, 2011 and 2012 all broke consecutive oil production records, which shouldn't be possible under PO mythology. So PO happened, except it didn't.


You must've missed the announcement that the IEA was changing their definition of oil to include Palm Oil, biofuels from corn and Sugarcane, and natural gas liquids in addition to petroleum. Yes, oil production continues up, but only because the IEA now includes flammable liquids from non-petroleum sources in its definition of "oil"---- :)

Image
The IEA now admits conventional petroleum production has peaked and faces steep declines, requiring ever increasing contributions from other kinds of flammable liquids.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 01:07:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's not that Xyricolev is a newbie. His problem is he's going to be an oldie real soon. Oldie . . . as in gone.

These children bring nothing to the discussion except insult. They know little about the industry. His new buddy meemie buys what the clueless media and its automobile/oil advertisers want them to believe. So they rely on rhetorical flourish rather than fact. We counter with fact. Those kind always get plenty exhausted real fast.


My point isn't to show that he's a newbie but that the account is likely another altnick of someone who continues to troll the forum. For all we know, even his "buddies" are altnicks.

The purpose of such activities isn't just to anger forum members who have been participating in this forum but to wear them down. With that, when real newbies come in, they will see only the trolls' posts, and seeing no response to such, readily believe them.

That's too bad because this forum could have been a very informative one for both newbies and the experienced. By that, I mean new information on peak oil shown to newbies and helpful skepticism from those who are more knowledgeable about the topic. Trolls are obviously neither.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 05:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou must've missed the announcement that the IEA was changing their definition of oil to include Palm Oil, biofuels from corn and Sugarcane, and natural gas liquids in addition to petroleum.

That happened in Summer 2010. If the biofuel percentage is subtracted, the remaining production is still record high in the last few years.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 06:16:11

Before boasting about evading a permanent ban on membership new posters should read the COC.
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4.1.6 Permanent Ban: Member posting privileges are suspended permanently due to a serious, clear-cut and substantial violation of the COC or TOS.

Changing your log in ID does not make you a new member, just an old member trying to circumvent Moderation. The only way to get membership back is as follows.
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')4.2 Violators of the CoC that have been issued one or more Formal Warnings shall be subject to a 2 week temporary upon occurrence of further violations. Continued noncompliance following a temporary ban are subject to a permanent ban from the site. Whether a violation warrants a Courtesy or Formal Warning will be at the discretion of the Moderators. Temporary bans are final. Permanent bans may be appealed to the site owner and administrator.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Xyricolev » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 06:18:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xyricolev', ' ')2010, 2011 and 2012 all broke consecutive oil production records, which shouldn't be possible under PO mythology. So PO happened, except it didn't.


You must've missed the announcement that the IEA was changing their definition of oil to include Palm Oil, biofuels from corn and Sugarcane, and natural gas liquids in addition to petroleum. Yes, oil production continues up, but only because the IEA now includes flammable liquids from non-petroleum sources in its definition of "oil"---- :)

Image
The IEA now admits conventional petroleum production has peaked and faces steep declines, requiring ever increasing contributions from other kinds of flammable liquids.


Right...except that in looking at the chart, you can plainly see that even if you take the yellow bar off the top (nat gas) that the rise continues.

And this site is called "peak oil" right (with the idea being that the stuff we put in our gas tanks to move around is the oil in question, right?

So if we expand the population of stuff we put in our gas tanks to do that....should we not then count those new members?

I mean...the site is specifcally NOT called Peak Conventional Oil, right? (or does the banner read differently when you pull the site up?...cos I see peakoil.com).
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 11 Feb 2013, 08:03:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'Y')ou must've missed the announcement that the IEA was changing their definition of oil to include Palm Oil, biofuels from corn and Sugarcane, and natural gas liquids in addition to petroleum. Yes, oil production continues up, but only because the IEA now includes flammable liquids from non-petroleum sources in its definition of "oil"---- :)

Image
The IEA now admits conventional petroleum production has peaked and faces steep declines, requiring ever increasing contributions from other kinds of flammable liquids.


It is even worse than that, look at the light red wedge, they are assuming about 15 million barrels of new oil production per day will be found in the next few years. That is totally unrealistic from what I have seen on the discovery side of the equation from 2003 to 2012 when petroleum prices supported a lot of exploration. I don't mind the Nat Gas Liquids too much, with very little work they can add lots of butane to gasoline in the winter months of the year which boosts supply and with a bit more work they can reformulate those pressurized liquids into atmospheric pressure liquids and mix them into the supply. The only problem I see is they assume natural gas supply and demand will both remain strong enough to provide the raw gas the liquids come from. Taking those two factors into account might provide a relatively stagnant level of supply into 2030, but growing supply? I just don't see that as realistic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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