[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>How is a horizontal well today more efficient than the ones they drilled 50 years ago?
Ask RockDoc or RGR. Tech hasn't stood still for the last 50 years.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'b')leh... same every year. That's enough rolling in the mud with the piggies for me for now.

[Stoffel]

Hi there,

Please excuse my very first post on here being off-topic but the three preceding pages of this thread have convinced me to comment. Admins, please delete or move if inappropriate.

This is my first post on this forum despite me being a daily lurker on the Peak Oil website and message board since about 2004. As a result I'm quite familiar with most of the characters that post here. I've learned a vast amount about resource depletion from browsing this site regularly. In fact, I would go as far as to say that this site has had a more profound effect on my thoughts and behavior than anything else that I've yet encountered since joining the internet in 1996.

For one thing, I've spent the last 5 years since 2008 paying off all my debt, apart from my mortgage, which should take another 3 years - provided that the system doesn't crash before then, which it might, of course. My wife and I now drive two small, fuel efficient cars, hers being a 1982 vintage and mine a 1974 - both paid for in full, naturally. Significantly, we've got no plans at all to EVER replace these vehicles. I can pretty much keep them both going indefinitely or, for as long as fuel is available. I've completely stopped buying iTrash and other Chinese junk and instead spend my money on preps and on acquiring new skills.

Despite having read extensively on PO and peak everything else, I do not profess to know enough about resource depletion to have any sort of certainty in predicting when and how fast things will implode. Whilst I'm by instinct a fast crasher, I understand that things could take decades to peter out and that there is small chance that I might still be employed in two decades when time comes for me to retire. Despite my fast-crash leanings, I'm now a much happier person than I was a decade ago. Everything that I've done to prep for a PO crash has also simplified my life enormously. I'm now fitter, healthier and far less stressed than in 2004. So yes, this site (and other PO sites) has had a big impact on my life.

But so much for the long intro. The reason for this post is to ask an honest question to meemoe and the other cornies that are such active posters on here: What is your motive for expending such a large amount of energy in posting material that is counter to the very viewpoint that this forum was founded upon? In other words, what do you gain from it? Do you perhaps see this as some sort of religious crusade where you're trying to "save" some lost souls? Or do you just have this immense desire to be proven right and by doing so, prove your superiority to all the "uninformed" people here? What's more, how much success have you had thus far in converting people to your point of view? Have you succeeded in changing ONE person's mind thus far? If so, what do you stand to gain from that?

I'm asking this in all seriousness because I can't see the logic. I don't, for instance, spend hours per day posting all sorts of communist material on extreme right wing websites. Neither do I post irrefutable scientific evidence that the earth is round on some flat earth forum. I can mention countless more examples. There's a very big percentage of websites and forums out there where the prevailing opinion on a particular subject might be the complete opposite of what I believe in but yet I don't have the even slightest desire to spend my evenings posting away trying to change those people's minds despite some of them holding utterly ridiculous opinions. Let those people believe what they want.

Frankly, whilst I'll be the first to admit that freedom of speech should be respected and that everybody's got the right to voice their opinion, I find the fact that about half of the content that get's posted on here is cornie stuff to be distracting. It makes it far more difficult to find useful material that would otherwise have been the case because one needs to constantly sift the chaff from the corn, so to speak. Having said that, the fact that opposing viewpoints are so readily tolerated on po.com does say a lot for the integrity of the admin team.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Quick question before you go, if there is a new record high of production, doesn't that mean 2012 is the new peak oil? And if 2013 is higher yet, then it has the potential to be the next peak? When that happens, how long before we declare the old ones non-peaks and move on to reassigning all the side effects like price and whatnot to the new one?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stoffel', 'H')i there,

Please excuse my very first post on here being off-topic but the three preceding pages of this thread have convinced me to comment. Admins, please delete or move if inappropriate.
...
The reason for this post is to ask an honest question to meemoe and the other cornies that are such active posters on here: What is your motive for expending such a large amount of energy in posting material that is counter to the very viewpoint that this forum was founded upon? In other words, what do you gain from it? Do you perhaps see this as some sort of religious crusade where you're trying to "save" some lost souls? Or do you just have this immense desire to be proven right and by doing so, prove your superiority to all the "uninformed" people here?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
According to the IEA, the peak for conventional production is around 2005. Non-conventional production was included in order to explain how demand was met by other sources:

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'S')eems reasonable to ask then, when do we get the peak in other sources?

[Quinny]

Excellent post. What's it all about Alfie?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stoffel', 'H')i there,

Please excuse my very first post on here being off-topic but the three preceding pages of this thread have convinced me to comment. Admins, please delete or move if inappropriate.

This is my first post on this forum despite me being a daily lurker on the Peak Oil website and message board since about 2004. As a result I'm quite familiar with most of the characters that post here. I've learned a vast amount about resource depletion from browsing this site regularly. In fact, I would go as far as to say that this site has had a more profound effect on my thoughts and behavior than anything else that I've yet encountered since joining the internet in 1996.

For one thing, I've spent the last 5 years since 2008 paying off all my debt, apart from my mortgage, which should take another 3 years - provided that the system doesn't crash before then, which it might, of course. My wife and I now drive two small, fuel efficient cars, hers being a 1982 vintage and mine a 1974 - both paid for in full, naturally. Significantly, we've got no plans at all to EVER replace these vehicles. I can pretty much keep them both going indefinitely or, for as long as fuel is available. I've completely stopped buying iTrash and other Chinese junk and instead spend my money on preps and on acquiring new skills.

Despite having read extensively on PO and peak everything else, I do not profess to know enough about resource depletion to have any sort of certainty in predicting when and how fast things will implode. Whilst I'm by instinct a fast crasher, I understand that things could take decades to peter out and that there is small chance that I might still be employed in two decades when time comes for me to retire. Despite my fast-crash leanings, I'm now a much happier person than I was a decade ago. Everything that I've done to prep for a PO crash has also simplified my life enormously. I'm now fitter, healthier and far less stressed than in 2004. So yes, this site (and other PO sites) has had a big impact on my life.

But so much for the long intro. The reason for this post is to ask an honest question to meemoe and the other cornies that are such active posters on here: What is your motive for expending such a large amount of energy in posting material that is counter to the very viewpoint that this forum was founded upon? In other words, what do you gain from it? Do you perhaps see this as some sort of religious crusade where you're trying to "save" some lost souls? Or do you just have this immense desire to be proven right and by doing so, prove your superiority to all the "uninformed" people here? What's more, how much success have you had thus far in converting people to your point of view? Have you succeeded in changing ONE person's mind thus far? If so, what do you stand to gain from that?

I'm asking this in all seriousness because I can't see the logic. I don't, for instance, spend hours per day posting all sorts of communist material on extreme right wing websites. Neither do I post irrefutable scientific evidence that the earth is round on some flat earth forum. I can mention countless more examples. There's a very big percentage of websites and forums out there where the prevailing opinion on a particular subject might be the complete opposite of what I believe in but yet I don't have the even slightest desire to spend my evenings posting away trying to change those people's minds despite some of them holding utterly ridiculous opinions. Let those people believe what they want.

Frankly, whilst I'll be the first to admit that freedom of speech should be respected and that everybody's got the right to voice their opinion, I find the fact that about half of the content that get's posted on here is cornie stuff to be distracting. It makes it far more difficult to find useful material that would otherwise have been the case because one needs to constantly sift the chaff from the corn, so to speak. Having said that, the fact that opposing viewpoints are so readily tolerated on po.com does say a lot for the integrity of the admin team.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Seems reasonable to ask then, when do we get the peak in other sources?

[meemoe_uk]

>What is your motive for expending such a large amount of energy in posting material that is counter to the very viewpoint that this forum was founded upon?
Because I'm interested in energy resources, and I got interested from the PO sites. I was a peaker\doomer from 2006 to 2008. I read all the doomer sites, in particular LATOC. I believed for a while that the PO community in 2006-7 was right that Dec 2005 was peak oil. There was stuff in the community that didn't make sense but I thought I'd understand if I read a bit more. Instead the more I read, the more I realized that both the POisNow and PO-doom stories were both myths. There is no peak oil now, and when peak oil hits, it won't matter, we've plenty of other energy reserves. As 2008-9-10-11 went by, the oil production kept rising. When I looked at history I saw peakers had always cried peak oil doom is now, regardless of what oil production was doing. They were just another form of the world ends tomorrow vagrants.
If nothing else my posts today on PO.com would just be an expression of my interest in energy resources. However, now that I'm outside consensus on this site, all the flak I get has slanted the tone and focus of my posts. And yes its amusing sometimes to read the reactions from the religious congregation when I point out truth to them, and the flaws in their rational.

Take this for example,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the IEA, the peak for conventional production is around 2005. Non-conventional production was included in order to explain how demand was met by other sources:

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>What is your motive for expending such a large amount of energy in posting material that is counter to the very viewpoint that this forum was founded upon?
Because I'm interested in energy resources, and I got interested from the PO sites. I was a peaker\doomer from 2006 to 2008. I read all the doomer sites, in particular LATOC. I believed for a while that the PO community in 2006-7 was right that Dec 2005 was peak oil. There was stuff in the community that didn't make sense but I thought I'd understand if I read a bit more. Instead the more I read, the more I realized that both the POisNow and PO-doom stories were both myths. There is no peak oil now, and when peak oil hits, it won't matter, we've plenty of other energy reserves. As 2008-9-10-11 went by, the oil production kept rising. When I looked at history I saw peakers had always cried peak oil doom is now, regardless of what oil production was doing. They were just another form of the world ends tomorrow vagrants.
If nothing else my posts today on PO.com would just be an expression of my interest in energy resources. However, now that I'm outside consensus on this site, all the flak I get has slanted the tone and focus of my posts. And yes its amusing sometimes to read the reactions from the religious congregation when I point out truth to them, and the flaws in their rational.

Take this for example,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the IEA, the peak for conventional production is around 2005. Non-conventional production was included in order to explain how demand was met by other sources:

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')"Unconventional oil"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')"Unconventional oil"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')"Unconventional oil"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Did you just get off the boat? Everyone around here knows that the technique has nothing to do with the type of rock being labelled "conventional" or "unconventional". The wiki is just another screwup by someone who knows nothing about geology and the definitions used by the geologic professionals, as opposed to those made up by people starstruck by the gee whiz technology.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2168/b2168.pdf

http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-06 ... ter_17.pdf

Back in 1993 Ben Law and Chuck Spencer effectively outlined the criteria for these unconventional accumulations, and certainly that type of rock hasn't changed since then, but what has changed is the application of two different, and relatively old, oil field technologies. You just can't trust wiki on topics like this, really.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '.')..

[dorlomin]

The years around the peak of conventional oil are the years we will have the most energy available to our species in its history. Peak oil is not the point of scarcity but the moment of ultimate abundance. But those drowning in the cornucopian opulence of lakes of oil are also burning food to keep the SUVs running.

Record breaking historic amounts of oil and still we are paying exorbitant amounts to scrape the dregs from every unconventional resource we can find.

[sparky]

.
@ dorlomin , I would follows you on Peak Energy being the cinch
Conventional crude is the cheapest , easier to handle fuel and has the greatest mechanical power density ,IE more bang per buck , per pound .
the highest thermal power belong to coal , at least the good sort , but rubbish stuff is also used
the easiest carbon fuel to transport is gas, this thing is born to be put in pipes
one could speak of peak fossil carbon and be pretty close

My test for Peak Energy is when we will reach peak air transport
this form of transportation is totally dependent on high energy fuel
another measure is peak food .
Peak oil will not be seen in numbers , statistics or graphs it will be seen in consequences
and forget the fast crash scenario , that's not how civilization collapse ,they crumple

My own definition of conventional crude oil

an hydrocarbon mix , liquid at atmospheric pressure , which float on water and is extracted from
wells resting on solid footing .
That's what was in Marion Hubert mind when he gave his curve , and he was right

[Xyricolev]

Whoa...I'm stunned that this place still exists...kudos to you guys, tho I have to ask...isn't this a waste of precious resources?

I've been lurking since 2005 (big wave of peak predictions then)...even bigger and more ardent than the ones in 1999, 1985, and in the 1970's (I've obviously skipped over a number of other peak oil predictions).

When I was last here (2008), the new game was to pretend that we were post peak, even tho oil production kept rising as more and more fields were found, so by that accounting, we're now PO + 5...no mass die-offs, substitutions taking place, new fields being found all the time, total production at an all time high....

It's kinda hard to see the doomalicious scenario in all of this, innit? (and the fact that we can still apparently spare the resources to keep the servers that power the 'net running).

Kudos though, for your resilience! Even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to stick with your beliefs...that takes some true, dogged determination!

-=Xyr=-

PS: as I did way back in the misty past of 2008, I'll say again...nobody sane would argue that a finite resource, if used at all, will eventually not be there...but that's not really what this site's about, is it? Unless things have undergone a seismic shift since 2008, this site is about that (a finite resource being, well...finite) + "teh end of dayz" hysterics that help define the mythology created by people who like to sell lots of books..