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IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 01:44:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')he only reason you wanted evidence was because you identified it as a bit of a long task for me to stumble over.
Nice work unravelling that little mystery meemoe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')his is a thread about the 2012 world record oil production, and you've derailed it.
You're the one who brought up light oil. If you don't want to discuss a topic don't bring it up. In effect, you derailed your own thread and then bitched about it. Kudos :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'Y')our slipping Kub. Face it, you've been beat fair and square by the meemoe again. Squirming around with wording doesn't do you any credit. BTW, it's a victory in itself that you even resort to bringing up a small problem such as quality of oil vs what industry and market are currently setup up to process.
Oh so that's why you're here, to win forum victories vs strangers. Well far be it from me to stand in the way of you acquiring numerous victories on the battlefield. I do humbly surrender to you mighty forum warrior! Your mighty wit on the topic of washing oil alone has put me to shame! Please forgive me as I wet myself and retreat from battle :(
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 06:35:59

>Nice work unravelling that little mystery meemoe.
So you admit you weren't contributing to the topic, you were just obfuscating. Why not pm the moderators and ask to be banned for violation of coc?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou're the one who brought up light oil. If you don't want to discuss a topic don't bring it up. In effect, you derailed your own thread and then bitched about it. Kudos :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'T')he "oil" being extracted from the Canadian tar sands, the Orinoco basin, et. al. has a much lower net energy, and a much higher cost.... ....A teacup of oil in a cubic yard of granite 3 miles down will never, however, be energetically or economically profitable,

I was responding to ian807's post where he tries to expound the 'all we got left is a bit of tar in a stone quarry' myth. Try and keep track of statements and responses. Any low achieving backward kid could do it with a bit of effort, but you don't seem to be quite there yet.
If you want to go on about it further, just start a new thread. e.g. " The kublikan obsession with refineries not ideally suited for todays oil " thread.

>Oh so that's why you're here, to win forum victories vs strangers.
No.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 14:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'S')o you admit you weren't contributing to the topic, you were just obfuscating. Why not pm the moderators and ask to be banned for violation of coc?
I have never asked for any poster to be banned, not even trolls like you meemoe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'I') was responding to ian807's post where he tries to expound the 'all we got left is a bit of tar in a stone quarry' myth. Try and keep track of statements and responses. Any low achieving backward kid could do it with a bit of effort, but you don't seem to be quite there yet. If you want to go on about it further, just start a new thread. e.g. " The kublikan obsession with refineries not ideally suited for todays oil " thread.
Don't insult yourself like that :) After all, I was responding to your post when I mentioned light oil. And yet apparently you call yourself a low achieving backward kid for not unravelling that little mystery. Try and work on your self-esteem issues meemoe.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 16:53:40

bleh... same every year. That's enough rolling in the mud with the piggies for me for now.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 17:03:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'b')leh... same every year. That's enough rolling in the mud with the piggies for me for now.


Quick question before you go, if there is a new record high of production, doesn't that mean 2012 is the new peak oil? And if 2013 is higher yet, then it has the potential to be the next peak? When that happens, how long before we declare the old ones non-peaks and move on to reassigning all the side effects like price and whatnot to the new one?
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 17:10:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'b')leh... same every year. That's enough rolling in the mud with the piggies for me for now.
Another flounce.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 03 Feb 2013, 17:14:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '.')..?
Hi Shorty.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby ian807 » Mon 04 Feb 2013, 19:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')he " we're squeezing a few drops of tar out of a stone quarry " story is another myth cooked up by PO doomers when they were confronted with the fact that peak oil wasn't happening. .... No its all good plentiful, cheap high quality oil for the next few years.

World’s average crude oil is becoming lighter and sweeter
OK, so, you think energy return from crude oil is going to get better over time? How do you see that happening, exactly?

As for the article you referenced by Mr. Thomas, the quantities of lighter, sweeter, oil are stated to run to about 1 million barrels a day, or about 1/80th of global supply. While this might affect some local refineries in the USA, the situation in the rest of the world remains unchanged.

Look, we have about 1.3 trillion barrels of conventional left. If the USGS figures aren't political fakery, then energetically, we have more than that in natural gas. Natural gas isn't going to replace petroleum, but it's far from useless either. The conventional oil should last about 40 years if net energy wasn't an issue. In reality, the energy represented by the remaining oil is considerably less than that, but we can probably backfill with natural gas and coals for a few decades. More, if clathrate mining ever succeeds.

So what's your timeframe? Even you have to understand that a finite resource, is well... finite. Eventually it's gone. The numbers are available if you'd care to look them up. It looks like about 40 years for usable conventional oil, about the same for natural gas and if we're lucky, maybe 30 for clathrate gas although that last one is very indefinite. Coal? Well we're past the energetic peak, just as we are for oil, but at least we'll have some for quite a while, even if we can't run a large scale industrial civilization on it alone. If we're being really optimistic, that would mean we might pull another 110 years of hydrocarbon energy out of the planet.

Is that enough? Got any kids, nieces, nephews?

And it's not like it's going to be the same price all the way down, or that there won't be use spikes due to wars, or resource nationalism as supplies get scarce. It's not like somebody one day rings a bell and there's no more energy. Powerdown promises to be prolonged and unpleasant most likely, quite bumpy.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 00:50:29

"Would it kill some of you guys (on both sides) to have a bit of humility and admit that you're guessing?"

I think so. Selection bias favors zealotry on sites like this.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby sparky » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 05:30:38

.
Meemo , old chum , thanks for putting FACTS on the table

conclusion......the peak is still a work in progress
the production number include some not so crude numbers but it's all the same really
if corn juice and reformed goo is produced ( at a price ) it still IS production
and should be considered as such
I'm sitting and waiting , no worries here , I have no ego problem with being wrong now
Time is on my side
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 06:22:31

OK, so, you think energy return from crude oil is going to get better over time? How do you see that happening, exactly?
Improving technology. The pattern has been the same from the start. Like when drilled and piped oil replaced bucket and spade oil. The efficiency of the oil industry didnt go down once the lack of surface seep oil forced the oil industry to improve their tools. It went up. Bucket and spade oil required a lot of work to extract and transport. With pipes, the transportation and extraction was a lot easier. Same today. Modern shale oil and horizontal wells are a lot more efficient than decades earlier tech, so much so that the efficiency gains of these technologies outweigh the loss of efficiency inherent of resource depletion.
Some day resource depletion will outweigh improving tech. But we aren't there yet. And this has to happen before peak oil. And it won't matter when we get there either. There's plenty of other energy reserves available today to fully replace oil.

>So what's your timeframe?
I think we're ok for oil for the 21st century. If you live into the 22nd you might see the effects of a geologically forced peak in oil production, but I think other technology is capable of fully replacing oil as an energy source today.

>Coal? Well we're past the energetic peak, just as we are for oil,
Coal and oil production and consumption are going up every year and will do for decades to come.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 07:53:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', ' ')Modern shale oil and horizontal wells are a lot more efficient than decades earlier tech,
You are confusing the nature of the reservoir with the technology.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 09:55:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', ' ')Modern shale oil and horizontal wells are a lot more efficient than decades earlier tech, so much so that the efficiency gains of these technologies outweigh the loss of efficiency inherent of resource depletion.


How is a horizontal well today more efficient than the ones they drilled 50 years ago?
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 11:53:12

>How is a horizontal well today more efficient than the ones they drilled 50 years ago?
Ask RockDoc or RGR. Tech hasn't stood still for the last 50 years.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 12:20:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]>How is a horizontal well today more efficient than the ones they drilled 50 years ago?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '
')Dont ask me, I am clueless about technical details. I am just here to troll for the lols.
Indeed.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby Buddy_J » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 15:00:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>How is a horizontal well today more efficient than the ones they drilled 50 years ago?
Ask RockDoc or RGR. Tech hasn't stood still for the last 50 years.


But you made the statement. Which means you either know the answer already, or made it without having a clue. And who might RockDoc or RGR be? Posters here, industry expert types?
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 15:06:46

>But you made the statement. Which means you either know the answer already, or made it without having a clue.
Is it possible for a kid to know the sky is blue, but to not know why its blue?

And who might RockDoc or RGR be? Posters here, industry expert types?
Yeah, they're industry veterans. They know. But if you ask them this kind of question, you might get a load of tech talk that u won't understand.
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Re: IEA 2012 : world record highest annual oil production

Unread postby ian807 » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 16:02:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]OK, so, you think energy return from crude oil is going to get better over time? How do you see that happening, exactly?
Improving technology. The pattern has been the same from the start. Like when drilled and piped oil replaced bucket and spade oil. The efficiency of the oil industry didnt go down once the lack of surface seep oil forced the oil industry to improve their tools. It went up. Bucket and spade oil required a lot of work to extract and transport. With pipes, the transportation and extraction was a lot easier. Same today. Modern shale oil and horizontal wells are a lot more efficient than decades earlier tech, so much so that the efficiency gains of these technologies outweigh the loss of efficiency inherent of resource depletion.
Some day resource depletion will outweigh improving tech. But we aren't there yet. And this has to happen before peak oil. And it won't matter when we get there either. There's plenty of other energy reserves available today to fully replace oil.
Still, there are diminishing returns on technology as we see in automobiles and computer chip speeds. Yes, technology helps, but had we applied advanced technology to say, the whale oil industry, we still would have run out of a sufficient number of whales. We were lucky enough to have something else. If we're lucky again, we should be able to exploit uranium and thorium, turn it into hydrogen and do something useful with it on an industrial scale. A nontrivial, but theoretically possible scenario.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>So what's your timeframe?
I think we're ok for oil for the 21st century. If you live into the 22nd you might see the effects of a geologically forced peak in oil production, but I think other technology is capable of fully replacing oil as an energy source today.

I actually think this may be accurate if we are able to convert coal and natural gas to oil. I don't see this with current supplies and frakked oil supplies alone. Even in absolute quantities, the math just doesn't work AND the price/net energy return ratio just isn't there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>Coal? Well we're past the energetic peak, just as we are for oil,
Coal and oil production and consumption are going up every year and will do for decades to come.

You're making my point for me here. Yes, production and consumption may increase, and so we deplete that much faster. Of course, even if absolute quantities of oil increase, net energy still seems to be in decline, particularly if you aggregate unconventional oil sources like oil sands with it's crappy 4:1 return ratio.
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