[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'n')other good quote from that article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') widely held myth proclaims that technology will deliver more, when its main impact has been to hold production higher for longer, accelerating depletion.

[MonteQuest]

PS Please don't feed the trolls!

[ArimoDave]

Please don't feed the trolls.

ArimoDave

[BiGG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')

Yes, some people I know don't understand what this is saying and probably never read the context.

What he is talking about is technology devoted to oil extraction and production, like water injection and bottle-brush drilling.

[BorneoRagnarok]

Time will tell. No one argues with result. Do BIGG argue with result ??
At current rate, Great Depression seem like a walk in the park with 3 GT race queens. Peak Oil will wipe out everything we knows.

Of course, before PO.com was wiped out due to skyrocketing hosting costs. I demand BIGG made a public apology to everyone in this forum especially MonteQuest.

[Note: Malaysia transportation charges increase 25% overnight due to increasing costs]

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', '[')b]Colin Campbell talks about the coming Great Depression

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he survivors, whose numbers may not greatly exceed those of the pre-oil age, may find silver linings as they rediscover rural living, regionalism, diversity and local markets, coming to live in better harmony with themselves, each other, and the environment in which Nature has ordained them to live. But the transition will be a time of great tension, including international tension as consumers vie for access to dwindling supplies, and as city life becomes unsustainable.

[BiGG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BorneoRagnarok', 'T')ime will tell. No one argues with result. Do BIGG argue with result ??
At current rate, Great Depression seem like a walk in the park with 3 GT race queens. Peak Oil will wipe out everything we knows.

Of course, before PO.com was wiped out due to skyrocketing hosting costs. I demand BIGG made a public apology to everyone in this forum especially MonteQuest.

[Note: Malaysia transportation charges increase 25% overnight due to increasing costs]

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he vast majority of experts will tell you there is plenty of cheap oil for a long, long time and we are building a new world that will require very little, if any oil at all.

[BiGG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he vast majority of experts will tell you there is plenty of cheap oil for a long, long time and we are building a new world that will require very little, if any oil at all.

[seahorse2]

Bigg,

First, six billion people in the world believe like you do, so you have nothing to worry about. You're in good company. Of course, that's a logical fallacy, that the majority is always right, but it is always very comforting and reassuring to be in the majority.

It is far less comforting to be in the minority, no matter what the issue is. I don't think any of the minority "doomers" here find any comfort in their beliefs. However, the word "doomers" is probably too broad a brush. Even within your classification of "doomers" on this board, you would find a wide variety of opinions as to how this may all play out, but in the end, we're all just guessing, speculating about the future, and there are no crystal balls.

In January 2004, I was also in the majority, but then again, I was ignorant. I had never heard of the peak oil issue. I don't find too much comfort being with the majority of the world on this issue when they've never heard of the issue and are as ignorant of it as I was.

But, back to my personal evolution. When I first heard of peak oil, I wasn't sure what to think. I grant you that I'm predisposed to the glass being half empty, so I start off jaded and predisposed. However, after many years of being a lawyer, I do understand evidence, and try to balance my natural predisposition with "evidence." So, for over 13 months now, I've read as much as I could about the issue, from every source I could from doomers to bloomers. I've even emailed twice with happy Michael Lynch, watched his debates, subscribed to Oil and Gas Journal. I'm not an expert by any means, but I feel I've learned enough to understand what the issues are that are being debated.

Now being familiar with the issues, I tend to agree with an article I read many months ago, that concluded that in the end, only time will tell, but that time was running out for the optimist. I agree. I agree, if you look at the evidence over the last four years, and which occurs now on almost a daily basis, the evidence continues to support a more "gloomy" view than an "optimistic" view. I got more worried in February of this year when the DOE published its report talking about "mitigating the effects of peak oil." Wow, there is was, our own gov't using the words peak oil. Sadly, the "mitigation" efforts didn't mention any of these breakthrough technologies you talk about. I worried even more when in April of this year the EIA predicted a shortfall in oil production for the 4th quarter of this year, when GM got junk status, yesterday when UAL got their pension plan avoided in bankruptcy. These things make me worry bc they are happening now, while all these great ideas you are talking about just aren't happening, and unless they happen real quick real soon, like before the end of this year, for the masses, we have a real problem.

I, like you and Michael Lynch, keep waiting to be saved by technolgy, but I'm beginning to worry that we may freeze and starve to death while we wait.

Now, we all know its wrong to say the world will ever run out of energy in any form. The question is how much will there be to go around and at what price? As you point out, extreme conservation measures can help. Case in point, look at North Korea. Discovery had a good segment on them last night. But it takes a virtual dictatorship for a country to survive that way, and they don't don't have hot showers that you have or the internet that you have, and they have a fairly high starvation rate among the population, although their leaders seem to be fed pretty well. So, although people can survive, surviving like North Korea would be a "doomer" way of life for me.

I fully subscribe to the Michael Klare point of view outlined in his many books and papers, but well said in his book "Blood and Oil." The deplenishing resources cause economic strain which lead to wars. I see many wars right now, rumors of wars in other areas, and all in oil regions of the world. I don't see how your technological advances are going to do anything to prevent those things.


In the end, its undisputed that we are addicted to oil, and the best technology in the world did nothing to stop U.S. depletion, did nothing to stop decline in the North Sea, and has done nothing to stop decline anywhere else in the world that we know of. All this great new seismic technology has not found another Ghawar or Prudhor Bay. Its just not happening. Exploration spending is now year after year. Those are the facts. They are undisputed. How this all plays out, I don't know. But we are in need of some optimistic news, I can tell you that.

I would ask that you please consider reviewing posts from someone here screenname Azur I believe. He's in the oil and gas industry, working on off short development. He is probably the best "expert" on this forum, and he does not have a rosy opinion about where things are going.

[Bandidoz]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_a ... rldtonight

22 and a half minutes in.....

[clv101]

Good find, thanks for posting. It's a fair report, Campbell is able to get his point across. Chris Skrebowski also speaks about how he became a 'convert' but they also talked about the failed '70s predictions. Someone proposes high prices due to lack of investment rather than lack of reserves, and someone also said we should get off oil anyway for political reasons since remaining oil is in the wrong countries.

[sdcoyote]

I always love the "we should get off oil" prognosticaters who make their announcements on the evening news...

then jump in their Explorers and drive home to suburbia.

I really do not think that people understand the the meaning of that statement.

The only way to "get off oil" is through substantial changes in the way Americans live.

It will happen. 200 dollar oil will make it happen.

Contrary to current governmental statements - this way of life is quite negotiable.

[Sys1]

http://www.workingforchange.com/article ... emid=19257

[BabyPeanut]

Oh John Campbell, for a moment I though you found something about Colin.

This is actually really good sounding
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he bill would add a staggering 3,000 megawatts of solar capacity in the state -- equivalent to the capacity of 10 average-sized coal-fired power plants or two nuke plants, and more than 30 times the current installed solar photovoltaic capacity. That could make California the No. 1 solar market in the world, surpassing today's top two biggest consumers of photovoltaic technology, Germany and Japan.

[Sys1]

"Oh John Campbell, for a moment I though you found something about Colin"

Yes, i know... But as we about to enter in darker times, i wanted to give some positive feedback from my readings linked to PO.

[Overlyhonest]

Not Colin Campbell but GOP Sen. John Campbell

[MicroHydro]

This will help solve the problem of summer peak demand power blackouts. It does nothing to help solve the peak oil problem, which is defined by a growing shortage of transportation fuels.

[gg3]

Micro, you're making the "magic bullet error." No one solution will solve all our problems. Each solution will solve some. Together they add up.

Now y'all fellow Californians, let's call up our state representatives in the Assembly and bug 'em to support this one. Especially the Democrats. There is no good reason for anyone to oppose this.

[cammo2004]

gg3: you have a great point. The best approach to solve (or at least minimise ) the problems related to Peak will be a combination of technologies, not one on its own.