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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil awareness is over..let's movealongaMatt

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Postby MattSavinar » Tue 31 May 2005, 21:46:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'H')ow bout we drop the dumb star trek and matrix sci-fi analogies, they're not helping us deal with the reality of the situation and they're not helping with our believability.


I supposse Matt Simmons made a big mistake when he referred to our energy crisis by making an analogy to "The Peferct Storm."

I supposse numerous mainstream media outlets blew any chance of this issue being taken seriously with their "Mad Max" references.

I supposse Reagan and Bush figured nobody would take them seriously when they decided to call SDI "Star Wars."

Dude, what is your problem? It's not like James Kunstler just went on Larry King dressed up as a Vulcan or Wooki or something. We are on a freaking interent forum here.

Newsflash for you: internet forums are disproportionately populated by nerds (like me) who are often quite well-versed in science fiction.

Matt
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Postby b0nez » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 00:55:05

Matt,wanted to just say thx a ton.I stumbled over your site somehow and it put some very complicated subjects in terms even a dumbass like me can understand,and thats the job well done IMO.

A question maybe you guys could help me with.Say the U.S. topples a few 3rd rate economies and is able to knock demand down to say 65-70mbd.How far out would that push the peak ya think?
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Postby OilsNotWell » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 01:10:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') did not leave in "big public huff and puff."

I left with "my panties in a bunch." I've since gotten them unbunched.

Matt


Humor! Humility! I love it!

We're sure as hell going to need it. Like the grim Russian humor about lines for everything under USSR rule...

Oh, and hey.
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Postby KevO » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 05:40:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Basically JayHMorrison called Matt a moron with no experience or credibility. Matt defended himself and for EIGHT PAGES, they flamed each other. It finally came down to Matt calling Jay a "whining, arrogant, ball-less crybaby" .


Well it's King Matt as far as I'm concerned, he has done for the subject of peak oil what Timothy Leary did for LSD.
Tune in turn on drop out. Pretty similar outcomes eh?
The hippie love revoultion was oppressed, peak oil can't be.

Matt. I'd like to have your babies.
:razz:
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Postby savethehumans » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 06:24:24

I wouldn't be too concerned about this, everyone. As political/economic happenings are deeply tied in with PO, PO as a topic is not going anywhere. Matt's got plenty of material about the basics that anyone can reference. Not to mention his book.

From the Wilderness did this too, at the start of the year. It's basically shifting the emphasis from what PO is to what's happening because PO is here, and what we, the non-sheeple, can do to get through it.

No PO site truly explaining what is going on is going to stop pointing out the truth. Matt and those like him know what these mainstream stories are saying; they aren't going to let the misconceptions go unanswered. One of the best helps for those of us Who Know, and one of the best arguments for those Who Sail DeNial, is to show how what is happening in the world is because of PO, and the events themselves are proof of PO. The survival tips are good for everybody!

For all manner of stories about PO and energy and all that, check in with energybulletin.net (One of Matt's main sources, BTW). I get a LOT of good stuff from there!
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Postby KevO » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 08:11:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('savethehumans', '
')From the Wilderness did this too, at the start of the year. It's basically shifting !


yes they did
There has been a shift.

from Mike Ruppert at
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... corp.shtml
is
FTW now has tens of thousands of daily readers who understand what is
happening and who are urging me to stop trying to convince the rest of
the world. They want us instead, try to and help those who are already
convinced. We cannot save everyone. We can only help those who are
asking for it. That is our constituency - our contract. The doors will
always be open for latecomers.

What you will see in two months or less is a new FTW; focused,
precise, and more useful on a day to day basis. If I lose support from
progressives or activists for this, so be it. If FTW falls from grace
with some for failing to be politically correct, then all I can say is
"Good luck to you."

We must all do what we must do and do it now. My conscience is clear
that I have done all that is possible to warn. When a tsunami is
coming there is a point at which one must stop trying to warn the
indifferent and just get out of the way and help others who are also
trying to get out of the way. For those who now see this, FTW hopes to
become at least a partial bridge to your safety. In order to do that,
other bridges must be abandoned. (full and long article at link)
- well worth a read for those that haven't already

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Postby PhilBiker » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 09:03:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'H')ow bout we drop the dumb star trek and matrix sci-fi analogies, they're not helping us deal with the reality of the situation and they're not helping with our believability. But then credibility isn't on everyone's peak oil agenda. I thought you left with a big public huff and a puff Matt.


I did not leave in "big public huff and puff."

I left with "my panties in a bunch." I've since gotten them unbunched.

Matt
Ha ha ha ha great response! :)
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Postby FatherOfTwo » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 12:37:10

Is Matt definitely removing the “awareness” angle? It's implied in this thread but the site home page still looks the same.
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Postby FireJack » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 20:16:38

Originally when I read the life after the oil crash site I was rather alarmed, then I started thinking no thats stupid it won't happen like that. Of couse when you are aware that oil is running out you begin to notice a lot of things that you didn't before and I grow more pessimistic. Whatever prediction we make about what will happen will probably be wrong though. The economy will crash but the preceding events will be impossible to predict.
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Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 01 Jun 2005, 22:27:00

My first real introduction to Peak Oil was Mr. Savinar's site. I consider Matt's to be the best introduction to PO out there. It is rather long, but PO is a rather complex topic. It is difficult to read Matt's introduction and stil call PO a hoax. There are people who have done it (many of whom post regularly on this site :lol: ) but most people who read it become PO aware almost overnight.

I read Savinar's book when it was free :-D . The only thing I didn't like about it was the 9/11 conspiracy stuff. I refuse to believe that Dick Cheney organized 9/11. I believe that Bush & Co. simply ignored the warnings and let it happen in order to have an excuse to make a move on Caspian and eventually Iraqi oil. Roosevelt didn't plan Pearl Harbour, but he allowed it to happen in order to rally the American People to war. I doubt he would have allowed such a major attack, but he wasn't expecting 4000+ American dead.
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
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Postby KevO » Thu 02 Jun 2005, 04:07:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'M')y first real introduction to Peak Oil was Mr. Savinar's site. I consider Matt's to be the best introduction to PO out there. It is difficult to read Matt's introduction and stil call PO a hoax. There are people who have done it (many of whom post regularly on this site :lol: ) but most people who read it become PO aware almost overnight.
.


Absolutely agree.
It's _the_ introduction of all intros.
It's the page you send mum and dad to prove to them that you're really not crazy or you send it to the materialists and lost consumers you know and it will spark a reaction, but I've found the more 'lost' someone is the easier they shrug it all of as a conspiracy or bullshit.

In fact the anti-peak oilites or skeptics, I feel sorry for.
They are terrified of all that peak oil means because PO means the removal of their dummy/pacifier and they are screaming. They are very frightened and the easiest road is to simply dismiss PO and try and find equal minds.

They are probably in denial just as much about their own mortality and it also suggests that they aren't very practical - in other words they didn't like woodwork or metalwork at school and PO will prove that their brain skills are useless. Good for writing to forums, rubbish at shelter building, organic survival and defence of castle - having relied fully on the expensive burglar alarm and the law so far.

So it's easy to see why people deny Peak oil. They are simply "shit scared and psychologically unprepared" - _BUT_ that is their choice.

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Postby The_Virginian » Thu 02 Jun 2005, 18:47:54

fear sells.

Not that there is nothing to fear!

for example i might be buying a horse this week.... but every chioce has issues, and the "country life" insulates you from some things and exposes you to others (ticks- lyme desiese, snakes, long distances from emergency care, long car trips to Wall Mart etc.).

So how does noe exactly prepare for peak oil?

the answer is not as easy as it sounds.
[urlhttp://www.youtube.com/watchv=Ai4te4daLZs&feature=related[/url] "My soul longs for the candle and the spices. If only you would pour me a cup of wine for Havdalah...My heart yearning, I shall lift up my eyes to g-d, who provides for my needs day and night."
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Postby cammo2004 » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 17:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Virginian', 'f')ear sells.

Not that there is nothing to fear!

for example i might be buying a horse this week.... but every chioce has issues, and the "country life" insulates you from some things and exposes you to others (ticks- lyme desiese, snakes, long distances from emergency care, long car trips to Wall Mart etc.).

So how does noe exactly prepare for peak oil?

the answer is not as easy as it sounds.


If you can afford it and have a place for it, definitely get the horse. Not only will they be useful to get around post-peak, they're wonderful animals.

Oh, And don't expect Wal-mart (or any other major shopping chain, for that matter) to be around for much longer.
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Postby MicroHydro » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 17:57:07

I read the 1998 Scientific American article by Campbell and the 2004 National Geographic article. Neither really got my attention being so vague and placed in some far future.

LATOC was the lightning bolt that really got my attention. I have purchased several copies of Matt's book for friends and family. The Oil Age is Over is the equivalent to a court argument by a brilliant lawyer. It gets right to all the important points and pulls no punches. Matt's petty critics are like fleas on a lion. Rock on, Matt. :-D
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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Postby ubercrap » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 21:11:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cammo2004', 'O')h, And don't expect Wal-mart (or any other major shopping chain, for that matter) to be around for much longer.


How long is "much longer?" Though purely speculative on my part, it seems companies like Wal-Mart could bleed money for years and still be able to restructure/transform their business strategy in the meantime. Predicting the close-at-hand death of "big box" stores and cheap widgets from overseas is one thing I'm doubting, not that I wouldn't like to see them go back to hell from whence they came. The company I work for is just starting to source stuff overseas (China), and shipping stuff in bulk isn't really a large component of the cost of many items, even from halfway around the world. I think shipping would have to get at least 5+ times as expensive to really have a dramatic impact on strategy. Then, there is the other buffer "layer"- fuel prices don't mirror high crude oil prices precisely. Some of the cost of the fuel is the transportation and refining. So, even if oil got to be 5 times as expensive, that doesn't mean that gasoline or diesel fuel would necessarily be 5 times as expensive. You never know, with manufacturing totally gutted in this country, something like Wal-Mart might be one of the only places to get most things in the near/intermediate future. Anybody have any thoughts on this?

Anyway, LATOC.net is where i learned about peak oil. Even though it might be a little on the gloomy side with the whole collapse of society timeline, it hits you like a baseball bat to the head. It convinced me, and researching the subject only reinforces most of his points.
Last edited by ubercrap on Sat 04 Jun 2005, 21:31:51, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Leanan » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 21:21:39

I think "demand destruction" will be a severe hit for Wal-Mart. Because they are so large, they tend to be out in the boonies, where land is cheap. People drive 30 minutes without thinking these days, but as gas gets pricier, perhaps even unavailable, people will have to think twice. Plus, Wal-Mart's customers tend to be poor. They don't have a lot of disposable income to begin with; peak oil will wipe them out. Wallyworld is already suffering, due to high gas prices. Their customers simply don't have money to spare on Chinese gewgaws any more.

Yes, they could shrink their stores and move closer to cities...but then they really wouldn't be "big box" stores. More likely they will just close stores that aren't profitable.
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Postby ubercrap » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 21:52:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', ' ') Plus, Wal-Mart's customers tend to be poor.


I believe (hopefully you can come up with info. to the contrary :-D ) only Wal-Mart's rate of profit increase/expansion has slowed, but this does not mean they are not still profiting.
Maybe a few years ago it was the case that Wal-Mart catered to the poor, but not any more. I shop at Wal-Mart unfortunately, because it involves either driving a great distance, or shopping there. I see the other professional people I work with there, as well as most everybody else from the community, from factory workers, to farmers, to pharmacists, to physicians. My family has shopped there for years (remember, they used to be 100% American made junk) and have been seeing even people we knew, who are professionals in a variety of fields for years. Hell, I was even listenting to some stupid thing on the radio about a country music singer meeting an Arista records executive (maybe even the president of the company, I can't quite remember) shopping for fishing equipment at- yep, you guessed it, Wal-Mart. In certain places, I know it's no the case that a bunch of people shop there, but as the lower-middle to lower class people become poverty stricken, there will be a lot of middle to upper middle class people who will take their place. With significant demand destruction to gasoline, you never know, prices could fall through the floor short term after a huge spike, making it even cheaper to ship the stuff they do need to ship. Probably they will need to build smaller stores in slightly different places, so I guess they no longer would be "big box" stores by pure definition, but I don't think that Wal-Mart the corporation/retailer is going bye-bye anytime soon. We'll see, I hope peak oil pulls the rug out from under them in spectacular fashion, leaving them shocked, dazed, and despondent, but I don't think it will be that simple.
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Postby KevO » Fri 01 Jul 2005, 09:45:08

I see Monte has also followed the trend of 'awareness is over time to prepare'
at
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9450.html
Is anyone actually doing so?, I mean really doing it, so if the lights went out this afternoon and the water stopped running thro' your taps, you'd be set up? or are we all just preparing to prepare?
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Postby Doly » Fri 01 Jul 2005, 09:50:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'I') see Monte has also followed the trend of 'awareness is over time to prepare'
at
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9450.html
Is anyone actually doing so?, I mean really doing it, so if the lights went out this afternoon and the water stopped running thro' your taps, you'd be set up? or are we all just preparing to prepare?
KevO


Looking at the "Preparing for the future" forum, a few people are fairly prepared. Most of us aren't.
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