[rshizzle]

Hey all, long time lurker here. Finally decided to take the plunge.

I became aware of the concept of peak oil in early 2008. I cant remember exactly how, but I do remember the why. Around the time, oil prices were obviously in their steep ascent, and some friends were complaining about gas prices. (I had a 45mpg subcompact and drove ~15mi/week) So me, being ever the inquisitive mind, started to research first oil prices, then oil.

This research first lead me to the "speculation bubble." After some critical analysis, I decided there had to be some mechanism to at least explain the speculation. I discovered that crude production had been flat for 3 years, but I knew demand was as high as ever. Further reading about the resource itself lead me to an article describing peak. I refuse to call it an epiphany, but there it was, plain as day...THIS is why. Since then, I devote a great deal of time studying it, and have slowly started to prepare for a less energetic, less mobile future.

After some recent reflection, while I'm not confident in my PHYSICAL situation at the moment (student debt, living in a small city with no ability to provide self sustainability), I think of my past 3+ years as a huge mental preparation course and small actions to further prepare me for a more rewarding future.

Some unexpected turns in my life have turned out to be quite fortuitous regarding the rest of my life. My mom got ill and passed, and as a result I left my career track of music education. As a result, I apprenticed my dad as a carpenter for a few months, and am now an apprentice butcher. Both of these were not original career paths, but will prove to be quite useful during re-localization, as well as helping me be self-sustaining. My music background (can play guitar for hours), along with my love of reading, will give me some low energy hobbies, as does my love of the outdoors. (Fish, hunt, hike, garden)

Coming from a working class family, I have a wealth of know-how to prepare me. My dad grew up on a farm, is an amazing carpenter, has shown me how to hunt, fish, and make the most use out of whatever is available. (once had no electricity for 2 weeks, and didnt really notice.) In that regard, I'm an EXTREMELY lucky individual.

My hope in participating here, is to get advice toward putting these skills I've acquired to use for the next 30-50 years I'm around, and if I have any kids, how to adequately prepare them for what their future is gonna be.

[Ibon]

Just a quick hello and welcome. Having acquired the skills that you have plus your understanding of the big picture around energy puts you in an excellent position to be adaptive as volatile events unfold. Nobody really knows with any precision where we are heading and where the opportunities and dangers lie. We are in unknown territory and this is a global issue. I wouldn't give up on the global economy providing you career options in the future but carpentry, hunting and fishing and growing food are always these anchors that provide a sense of resourcefulness when contemplating the worst case scenarios. And playing guitar around the communal pot of beans will always guarantee something in your bowl .

[Pops]

Hi shiz, nice introduction.

Lots of angles to investigate here, also lots of folks very impress with their own views so try to roll with the sharp elbows.

Welcome.

[rshizzle]

Thanks guys. I'm certainly not a doomer in the strictest sense. I just feel that the trend in the coming decades (2020ish on) will be one of localization vs globalization. A part of that will be an increase in trade skills which aren't envogue right now.

I've actually felt an increasing sense of relief as I've came into my mid 20s regarding my lot in life. I would feel more at ease being a respected butcher vs. a paper pusher. Being someone a neighbor could call on to fix a leaky faucet is more fulfilling than taking a vacation 5000miles away.

Interestingly I live right in the Marcellus/Utica hotspot...the area is a buzz about growth. We are starting to see some out of towners come in at work, and business is booming. I've already seen the aftermath of the steelmills in this area, and I wonder how long a shale economy is really going to last. It is interesting to read some opposing viewpoints on here about it. I fall somewhere in the middle, as I do on most issues.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rshizzle', ' ')I just feel that the trend in the coming decades (2020ish on) will be one of localization vs globalization. A part of that will be an increase in trade skills which aren't envogue right now.

[sparky]

.
Hi , I'm from Sydney , and a slow doomer , working for a living is a good thing in itself
and not depending too much on others make for a better , more real person usually

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')orking for a living is a good thing in itself
and not depending too much on others make for a better , more real person usually

[rshizzle]

I agree with you. That would be the best case scenario. I think globally we need to recognize the energy crunch upcoming, and realize all countries need to use the remaining supplies together to build a sustainable infrastructure. So on a resource level, yes, this needs to happen. I don't necessarily mean that there will be a total death of the global economy by that statement.

The localization statement was more regarding my life personally. For instance, the trend for the past 20 years in my current field was toward central processing plants, and pre-packaged meats. 20 years from now, transportation costs may force the big supermarkets away from that model and more toward local sources.

I think the world will remain connected as well, so it will be much easier to be coopertaive in tight situations.

[Loki]

Rshizzle, I've heard that good butchers are in short supply, not too many younger folks getting into the trade.

There are a few independent butchers in my area that will slaughter an animal at the farm, then take it back to the shop for butchering and packaging. We'll be using one of them in a week or so to slaughter six pigs on the small organic farm I work/live on.

A relocalized food economy will need more folks like this, small independent shops that can bypass the industrial feedlot / slaughterhouse system. It's far more humane, too, the animals are never loaded onto a truck and subjected to the horrors of a centralized slaughterhouse.

Here's an interesting article on the subject:
http://ukiahcommunityblog.wordpress.com ... ile-units/

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') agree that localization is the trend for many businesses and services due to resource constraints. On the other hand the only way we will prevent very ugly resource wars is for all nations to have a vested interest in cooperation. And that will only be possible if they remain codependent through the global economy.

So a resilient global economy together with relocalization is going to be key to maintaining stability.

[rshizzle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')I'm not sure how the latter is possible. Globalization has been the enemy of the local for decades.

I hope relocalization will be the prevailing trend in the decades to come as the global economy spirals downward and energy constraints become exacerbated. I've done what I can to encourage relocalization in my area. But for all I know globalization will continue its remorseless march.

[Pops]

I liked the way things were when I was a kid: fewer and more expensive.

A person could also make a living as a store clerk, small farmer or butcher. The reason those jobs were viable was we were very labor inefficient, we hadn't yet deployed "efficiencies of scale" to every corner of the economy.
Today, we've applied the assembly line model to just about every business. The key to making an assembly line profitable is to design many simple interchangeable parts, automate as many tasks as possible and make the tasks that do require humans easy enough the humans can be simple, automated and interchangeable as well.

Look at this chart of exports and notice no effect from a 600% increase in shipping costs right up until the overall economy stalled:



You probably don't remember the walmart promotion "Bring it home to America" or whatever but it was quickly replaced by "Always the Lowest Price". American's chose the lowest price over the local economy every time because cheaper means more, and we like to have more.


--
Once we had a thread that attempted to place a cost for transport on a pair of jeans from China and it seems like it was just pennies. Labor cost is the more important factor by far. I think we'll not be able to afford stuff from China not because it costs so much to get it here but because the majority of us will have become interchangeable and simply not able to afford stuff. Of course since we still need our energy fix, that will take up an increasing portion of the pie; since 2009 the total cost for crude oil consumed in the US divided by the number of households has increased by about $2,500.

So I don't know how localization is going to play out in an increasingly automated society. Certainly there is always going to be an overclass and "By Appointment To The King/CEO/CFO" will be just as coveted a position as it always so "Butcher to the Stars" might be the direction to aim. The rest of use will be working here:

[Newfie]

Well...............if I was gonna try to outrun THIS bear I'd head for Canada, maritime Providences .....soon.

There may be other spots; Norway, Sweden, Finland, S Chile, S Argentina, New Zealand.

[Newfie]

Totally off subject but.............

Somewhere I heard we export frozen chicken to China, where they 'process' it and ship it back to US.

Is that true?

[Aslam1989]

Hello Evey one... Nice to join ....I am new here.

[Heineken]

Hi. Where are you from, what do you do, and why did you join?

[saffron]

Hi, everyone i m saffron from Mumbai a new in this forum site.

[bratticus]

Welcome Saffron. Do people in Mumbai speak much about Peak Oil to each other?

Do you experience much "load shedding" where you live? Do you relate the idea that fossil fuels are finite to that at all?

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I')f you are a solid Libertarian Redrobin, in a philosophical sense, then you should have no problem fitting in here at all.

[SeaGypsy]

I don't know the breed, with a max of 14.2 hands must be on the Arabian end of the spectrum? Do you know their conversion rates when compared to thoroughbreds or pure arabs? I have found arabs average double the efficiency of thoroughbreds, besides having a more fiesty nature.
Here in Oz in a dry year horses go for knacker's prices also.