[Bruce_S]

Peak oil as an idea has gone far beyond the basic concept which Yergin is battling. It has nearly become irrelevant in light of the issues Yergin is discussing. I think he just enjoys teasing Malthusians. Oil matters to those who use it. Use less, and it matters less (a key point among those preparing for peak oil by powering down and hoping for agri-topia). Pretty soon, you, and anyone else who changes their behavior in a similar manner, is using so much less that how much being produced is immaterial because the ability to use less easily outpaces the desire for more.

Drive a Volt or EV, buy a scooter, walk or bicycle, and it is amazing how fast those numbers they hang up at the local convenience store just stop bothering the psyche. Will their change matter in the greater context? Sure, the price of fuel is an important input to all sorts of things, but there is no 1:1 correlation between fuel price and final product price unless the final product is the fuel itself. Double the price of fuel, and the cost of the things using it do not also double. IMHO bicycles and living close to centers of population are best to dissolve the psychological bond so many Americans seem to have with fuel prices.

[papa moose]

I thought this was an odd thread to get bumped.
Seems all i get to do when i visit PO these days is report spam!

[ChevalNoir]

Hello – decided to join the PO club today. I’m British, went to live in Alberta (home of the Tar Sands and the beautiful prairie ) 2005-10, came home to Europe last year and now in SW France. I brought my rare breed horses with me. Probably not the right time to take such a financial gamble in the middle of a global recession but I couldn’t leave them. My specific interest about the preparation for a different way of life is to reintroduce the horse to our world. I am interested in growing some of my own food and to learn more about using 'living horse power’ on the land.
During my time in Alberta food prices rocketed and to keep the livestock fed I had to adapt or starve. The reason for the price hike was/is the cost of fuel – even trucking food from eastern British Columbia into western Alberta could add heavily to the food price once it hit the shelves. Lack of agricultural subsidies such as in the EU meant that cheese, for example, was too expensive to buy. I am eating more cheaply here in France but I can cook and regional produce helps although some food prices are very much higher now. Add in the back door privatization of the Alberta health service and I decided to come back to the EU. There is more going on in North America that (imo) has its roots in the oil age coming to a close. For example, less food crops are being raised having been replaced by bio-fuel crops. Hay this year has rocketed so some livestock will starve this winter.
I have been rationing petrol now for five years because I have to.
So I’m interested in knowing if anyone else is looking at what horses can do for us and growing their own food as well as enabling people who can't cook to do so. Cheaper and healthier.

[Arthur75]

Hello and welcome ! (at PO.com and in France )
How many horses did you bring from Canada to France ? Is it done by plane ? Boat ?

[DomusAlbion]

You are most welcome here, ChevalNoir.

My wife and I started a small homestead in the Idaho panhandle (just south of Alberta) in 2005 and have been building it up for the eventual energy decline. We owned 2 horses until 2009. The thought was that they would be needed in a fast crash scenario, however the feed/hay prices did indeed climb steeply in 2008 and we decided that the animals were too much of a liability at that time. Also we change our thinking related to the speed and nature of the crash as we saw the impact of high oil prices on the world economy. In the future we believe that we can always acquire a horse or two from one of the many local breeders. One future plan related to transportation is to buy a 19th century doctor's buggy (the Amish still make these), this is more or less a two wheel, single horse cart with a hooped cover over a two person bench.

I think SW France is a good choice for a location to settle in. Have you purchased some land. Even a half acre can generated a lot of food.

Again, welcome and good luck with your efforts.

[ChevalNoir]

Thank you for the welcome. The horses travelled by plane from Calgary to Luxembourg and maybe because they travelled together did not seem upset by the experience and have all settled in to their new life in France. I brought five Spanish Mustangs having becoming involved with the breed in 2000 by a chance encounter (long story ). They are a small horse and easy keepers so cheaper to keep than larger more refined breeds. I can honestly say they are the most intelligent breed of horse I have ever met and able to be trained for all aspects of horse work. They get good health care though like any other horse - worming, vaccinations - and are well-fed but on a mostly hay diet. One is trained to ride but I'm interested in having them trained to pull - carriage, plough. Petrol is expensive here in France as it was in Canada in that it fluctuates inconsistently and I foresee the day when I may only be able to afford to take the car out once a week. So having one rideable horse at least to go into town will be useful. In total for this winter I have five adults and two foals born this summer as I brought two mares over bred. Next year is about finding anyone over here who is already working with horses on the land. I've been lucky with hay so far and booked my winter requirement back in August. I cannot believe the price of hay in the USA and worry that more horses will die this winter.
I'm interested to know more though about how much stockpiling of tinned food people are doing. I don't want to seem dramatic but what might be considered reasonable and what do others think of this? Are we allowed to post websites here as I have mine if anyone wants to take a look?
Thanks for mentioning the Amish carriage. I was lucky to see some Amish people when I was staying in York County, PA few years ago and we took a drive out to Lancaster County. Fascinating day.

[DomusAlbion]

Horses in our area are being sold dirt cheap. Those sold to the knackers are going for as little as $50. Hay prices went up dramatically in 2008 and have stayed high, so people that were marginal riders have unloaded their stock. We actually sold our saddles and tack and gave the horses as a gift to the buyer. I miss them still but it was the right decision at the time.

Many of the people here stock some food. My family has enough stored food (a combination of dehydrated food in #10 cans, grains and beans in 5 gallon buckets, frozen food, preserved food from our small farm) to last 2 people for 2 years. We also have two years of non-hybrid seeds in the freezer to start a large garden as a backup to the seeds we save every year.

Posting websites is fine as long as they are not meant to divert traffic away from peakoil.com or blatant sales sites.

RE: Amish. I lived in NYC for a number of years and took a lot of trips throughout New England. At the time I found the Amish to be unique and a bit odd. Now I see them as an essential model of the way we all should (and eventually will have to) be living.

Just curious, what county did you come from in England?

[ChevalNoir]

I am from Surrey, in SE England originally. The crisis in the horse market to today is very sad in so many ways apart from the slaughter aspect. If anyone with land could take in just two and ensure they are rideable and trained for driving (carriage or plough) it would save so many. One of the problems is the BLM turning horses off the land that was supposed to be designated for the wild herds to make way for growing bio fuels. There is so much land still in the USA and I just wish a piece could be set aside for the wild herds with human intervention for population control. If it were a 501c donations could be accepted.

The Amish were a privilege and master cabinet makers. Their carpentry and woodwork was stunning and sold for high prices too.

[Pops]

Hi ChevalNoir, welcome.

Your nickname and question are apropos, since of course the rider of the Black Horse is famine.

I could see owning a horse if you owned a good amount of grazable land they could be rotated on. I have 40 acres and maybe someday my grandkids might ride a buggy into town but today I think a horse is just a lawn ornament. A draft horse built to do work would take what, 5 acres of good grass plus hay winter & summer and somewhere to go when the ground is frozen or muddy? We bought our place from an Amish family who kept their horses on 1 - 7 acre paddock and it was just about ruined - and they were only used for going to town and church, they hired all their farm work done with a tractor.

If I thought fuel would be unavailable I'd train an ox or even a milk cow to pull. She'd be a better value, doing very well on grass alone with a tougher constitution than a horse. She'd make beef and milk in addition to her replacement - and she could pull a light weight sickle bar and rake and on the weekend she could pull my cart to town to the Occupy Main Street protest.

Anyway, I think horses are pretty and a fun hobby but planning to use them next year to farm or ride to town is like the gun guy who uses po as an excuse to buy his umpteenth gun - it's planning for the scenario you wish for instead of the one most likely to occur. Not that that is a bad thing necessarily, just realize that there is a lot of getting from here to there before we're back to the horse and carriage.

But that's just my take.

[redrobin]

Thanks all for your welcoming and encouraging posts, I have been anxious to reply as I found some of the post intimidating due to your combined excellent knowledge within this region. Also, with regards to the post by Pretorian...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', ' ')Please , refrain from preaching ! Not only it's useless and damaging the preppers, but also cruel to the common people. Let it be our secret , k.

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('redrobin', '
')...I am unsure as to what I did to offend you, but I would like to apologise and hope not to do so again!

Having read more of the discussions on peak oil I am beginning to feel more confident to join in and will hopefully be making some more appropriate posts in the future

[redrobin]

Thank you DomusAlbion. I really hope I haven't upset anybody already!

[ChevalNoir]

I agree with some of what you say 'Pops' but if you have 40 acres then there is room for two horses. My point is that if more people just took two this would in some way contribute to decreasing the appalling number being sent for slaughter. I know that more control over breeding needs to implemented but that is another issue. Interesting point about an ox and I wonder if they will become a future sight on the land. A draught horse need not be huge. The horses the Spanish brought over to the New World included a small draught horse called the Pottok (still some in SW France) that was used on the land. They were barely 14h but as strong as, er well, an ox.
This is certainly a fascinating website and forum. Interesting threads. My biggest Spanish Mustang is 14.2h but they are tough horses and quick learners. As for riding my horse into town - I'm looking forward to doing that soon. I'll post a photo

[ChevalNoir]

Newbie - welcome and I am new here too. Barely a week old. Do not underestimate your input or intelligence. You make some good and relevant points and obviously care enough about what's happening as we reach the end of the oil age to join this board. Keep it coming

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('redrobin', 'T')hanks all for your welcoming and encouraging posts, I have been anxious to reply as I found some of the post intimidating due to your combined excellent knowledge within this region. Also, with regards to the post by Pretorian...

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'R')ed, study quick. UK has what, about 60 million folks on a relatively small island, declining North Sea oil, at the far end of the Russian gas pipeline

[ajobniloy22]

My plan is simply to be able to outrun the next person and not the bear. The quality of information generously provided by a forum such as this is invaluable. Now when do I start running....

NO SPAM

[ChevalNoir]

Yes, agree - dance with all the bears and if one's a grizz - humour it

[csnavywx]

Created an account a few days ago, but it's now gone. I'm assuming it had to do with me not posting in this forum first.

I became aware of the problem of Peak Oil about a year ago through curiosity about the root causes of gas prices and the recession. There are a myriad of differing opinions on the subject, and I would put myself in the category of a "moderate" on the subject. I don't subscribe to the overly pessimistic projections outright (though some of them may ultimately prove correct), but I don't consider myself that optimistic either, mostly due to the massive amount of potentially destructive ignorance of the problem. Misdiagnosis can cause more damage than ignoring the problem.

As for my background, I deal (and have a degree plus government-related experience) in atmospheric sciences (namely meteorology and climatology) and geography. So, for the mathematicians out there, I deal in probability and uncertainty quite a bit .

[MD]

if your first post contained any commercial links then it's likely you were considered spam. Spammers are deleted on sight (there's nothing else we can do or we would be overwhelmed)

Welcome.