[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou must be referring to tight shale gas, shale oil, oil shale and necessary and very expensive production systems such as THAI, SAGH, and shale horizontal fracturing? Correct?

[Moto]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

Don't take things to seriously. Someone was asking why I don't like environmental groups. This is sort of sums things up, but I don't really agree about the plastic part.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'I') think prices will remain about as high as the economy can handle.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'h')ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

Don't take things to seriously. Someone was asking why I don't like environmental groups. This is sort of sums things up, but I don't really agree about the plastic part.

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'T')hat's one definition of "Peak Oil".

[Revi]

Let's say we do go to a million barrels per day from North Dakota. Let's say we can get a million each out of say Pennsylvania and Texas. Let's even add another million from Alaska. We would be back up to our peak production in the 70's. Can the Bakken and similar formations keep producing indefinitely? Will fracking and enhanced oil recovery techniques be able to keep us producing that amount of oil forever? I don't think so, but let's say we can get production back around 10 mbpd for the foreseeable future. That's still only half of the oil we use every day.

We have been living on our inheritance. The money is starting to run out. We just found some money in the couch cushions. What do you think we'll spend it on? If we use it to transition to green energy it would be great, but I think we'll blow it on another couple of years of car culture and a movie.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')We just found some money in the couch cushions. What do you think we'll spend it on? If we use it to transition to green energy it would be great, but I think we'll blow it on another couple of years of car culture and a movie.

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')rtificially high? Oil company collusion? Funny Curve? Need to support this stuff as it sounds kind of fringey.

Something else will get us by? That sounds faith-based. Our complex consumer/industrial system requires inexpensive free-flowing light sweet crude to keep those trucks on the road.

We have been in a period of energy plateau/decline now for perhaps 6- years and no alternative has appeared on the horizon, regardless of claims and renewed interest in old second-rates substitutes. Have you not heard of EROEI or the energy cost of doing business?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'O')il companies will drill only enough wells to keep the value high. The companies will work together because it will benefit them all.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'T')hat's one definition of "Peak Oil".

[MD]

why are humans so ready to accept complicated answers to simple questions?

answer: when the natural conclusions create tension.

[Moto]

People on this forum like to make lots of assumptions about about other members based on what they think. I do not think there is lots of easy oil left. Nor do I think they are going to restrict production to keep prices high. We are going to need to develop about as fast as we can just to keep up with demand. (along with other energy sources) Oil companies need to make a significant amount of money, and the simple answer is that it is in their best interest to only drill enough wells to keep prices up. Regardless, OPEC has a good recorded of doing what they can to keep prices up and that isn't going to change any time soon. So the answer really isn't very complicated.

I think the definition of what we think of as easy oil is probably going to change over the next few years. I'm working on a group of posts regarding continuous resources, but it is going to take awhile to find information to back up what needs to be explained.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'I') think the definition of what we think of as easy oil is probably going to change over the next few years.

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')an you back that up? Got examples of successful prosecution in a US or World Court? I'd rather assume the obvious; market supply of oil mediates demand with appropriate high prices. And then hits a price ceiling. Much simpler explanation.

The definition has already changed. Didn't EIA recently reclassify old rubbers at petroleum?

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', '
')Even the crap wells in North Dakota are probably better than 8.

[Moto]

Sorry watching the vikings get their asses kicked. It isn't going to be easy to "prove it", but the fact that the rig count is up by more than 50 since last winter acts a good indicator of economics which is a good indicator of EROI

Wind towers have a better EROI than 8 so if oil wells were less they would just be building more wind towers.
The rig count keeps growing and the LM glasfiber laid off about 150 people because they shut down one whole mold for making new windmill blades... What does that tell you about the economics? ---really that is a lie... LM also has operations in China that undercut the US division (f#$%ed up?). So much for clean jobs in the US. (ask me to prove that.... I worked there. You won't find it in any documents In total they laid off more than 300 in the US)

Anyway, the data probably does exists for some companies operating in the bakken, but I don't think anyone has crunched the numbers in the last two years so it will take some time. The the amount of time I would have to dump into to figure it out probably isn't worth it. Check the blog in a week or so. If it isn't there I'm probably not going to take the time to do it.
Sounds like something worthwhile to get an undergrad to do for a senior project.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', '
')I think the definition of what we think of as easy oil is probably going to change over the next few years.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'W')ind towers have a better EROI than 8 so if oil wells were less they would just be building more wind towers.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'T')he rig count keeps growing and the LM glasfiber laid off about 150 people because they shut down one whole mold for making new windmill blades... What does that tell you about the economics? ---really that is a lie... LM also has operations in China that undercut the US division (f#$%ed up?). So much for clean jobs in the US. (ask me to prove that.... I worked there. You won't find it in any documents In total they laid off more than 300 in the US)

[ethanehunt]

-The general consensus among now disinterested scientists
is that oil production will peak by 2010 at the latest. Who get's to say what constitutes a "disinterested" scientist is (whatever that is and assuming that's even a good thing...)? How "disinterested" is someone selling a book anyway? This person is not The Authority on this subject. He may be right, but he certainly doesn't represent the majority viewpoint. See graphs here: npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5374852 Energy analyst and historian Daniel Yergin has heard these arguments before. He counts five different periods when the world feared it was running out of oil. The first was in the 1880s. Such fears usually gain traction when oil prices are high. But each time, Yergin says, the dire warnings have proved premature.

"The last time before this time was in the 1970s, when people thought we were going to fall off the oil mountain and live in an age of permanent shortage. Since then, world supplies have increased 60 percent. I don't see why we're at the end of technology now, or why it would be finished now," Yergin says. I was in elementary school in the '80s and remember people predicting back then that we had 20 years left before oil was gone. This is a common doom-and-gloom scenario that I just don't buy into. Yes, production will peak and yes it will fall after that - but it isn't here yet and it won't be nearly so dramatic when it is.