[papa moose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I')f you are a solid Libertarian Redrobin, in a philosophical sense, then you should have no problem fitting in here at all.

[Moto]

I'm new here, but I'm here to stir the pot a little because I think things are a little too one sided when you are always among like-minded people. I have gone full circle on this topic, and now I'm not exactly sure what I think. I sort of think we will see a shift in Hubbert's Peak based on new drilling technology. Anyone feel like changing my mind?

[kpeavey]

A reduced EROEI needs to be included in your 'shift'.
See: The Net Hubbert Curve
Happy drilling.

[Fishman]

Moto, at 20 million barrels a day that 20 billion lasts a few years. We go almost unimaginable amounts of oil. Also that oil will be MUCH harder to extract. Energy "independence" at $10 a gallon for gas is still a b*%#h

[Moto]

kpeavey that just happens to be the last post on the blog which was posted a few days ago. (you weren't the first person to bring it up) just look at the root energy site.

theoildrum post is mostly based on old data. I don't totally disagree with it, and EROI is not what it was in the 1930s but we are a lot better at moving energy than were were then.

Please ask specific questions and I will do my best to find real world data. I know that efficiency of fracking is increasing, but it isn't the easiest thing to find data for.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'I') sort of think we will see a shift in Hubbert's Peak based on new drilling technology. Anyone feel like changing my mind?

[Moto]

Good catch I hadn't noticed that. The discrepancy is that the second graph considers all liquid fuel production while the top one is only oil. Regardless the I was only trying to show the trend.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'I')'m new here, but I'm here to stir the pot a little because I think things are a little too one sided when you are always among like-minded people. I have gone full circle on this topic, and now I'm not exactly sure what I think. I sort of think we will see a shift in Hubbert's Peak based on new drilling technology. Anyone feel like changing my mind?

[Moto]

The whole point of my post is unconventional resources which seem to be ignored in the book and are game changers. I will probably get the book though it is fairly short, and looks like it has some good information.

This video will probably cover a lot of what is in the book.
http://www.knowledgestream.org/kstream/ ... em_id=9679

[Moto]

I'm not promoting anything. I just want people to think about it. If there is a future for this world it is going to require developing all our resources responsibly.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'I')'m not promoting anything. I just want people to think about it. If there is a future for this world it is going to require developing all our resources responsibly.

[Moto]

I basically agree with that. I'm banking on people figuring out that they need to move to other sources. I worry that a government with no energy plan is going to attempt to move too quickly to renewable sources. I'm ok with regulation pushing alternatives, but if they push too hard and ignore resources that we already have they will just create more problems. My goal is just to make people think about what we have.

[kublikhan]

It's not all doomers here, we have several cornys here as well. oilfinder2 in particular likes to point out all of unconventional oil we have and increases in oil production. He has been posting about it for years. Unconventional oil sources are discussed frequently on this board.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'I') basically agree with that. I'm banking on people figuring out that they need to move to other sources.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', 'R')enewable energy is ideal, but is not realistic in the near future. I have crunched the numbers and it just is not going to happen any time soon.

[Pops]

Probably right P so just don't respond.

As far as shifting the peak, if you are talking strictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

But Hubbert didn't pay attention much to economics. The way I look at it is in my sig line. Long term the real price for conventional oil was about $24 (I think) and this year it's about $110 (brent) and it doesn't look to be dropping very fast.

So really, I think you can figure that we've already past the hubert peak of $24 oil and are into the replacement phase now. So far we're burning food and spending a lot of money trying to keep the buzz going with tar and technology.

[Moto]

I have worked with several environmental groups on campus, attended a few National Sierra Club meetings and worked with clubs to clean up campus. Overall I have never been impressed with any of them. There ideas are not always bad, but the extremism makes sure that nothing ever gets done (kind of like our current government). I have worked in manufacturing windmill blades for 3MW wind towers, and indirectly I work in an energy related field.

Josh fox is a good example of someone who claims to be an environmentalist, and is full of crap. About half of his so so called documentary is an outright lie. Regardless he managed to grow a huge following of people by showing them some videos of flaming faucets. It was hard to search for facts on fracking before his video was released, but now it is even more difficult for the average individual. His video will probably have a long term positive effect on industry, but I don't like how he panders to people who have no understanding of the subsurface.

That quoted statement was largely pointed at National Sierra Club.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=md0Fdy0dlq8
http://youtu.be/rrzv8jt0bLI
Gimmicky and do not offer working solutions.
(The oil industry does the exact same thing and I hate it)

It is going to take me awhile to check out your numbers. Looks kind of good though.

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 's')trictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 's')trictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

[Moto]

Maybe it will. I'm not talking about this from a climate standpoint.

I honestly think we might find something else to do us in before the climate does.

Been having a good time. I came here looking for hippies to yell at me, but most of you aren't hippies. It is nice to find a group of informed people. I'm going to take a break for awhile my own web pages need tending.

Thanks for the input. Please do ask question.