by marko » Thu 26 May 2005, 11:53:12
I've read about the Bilderberg conference from enough sources (admittedly all online) to be convinced that the conference really exists. From what I understand, the Bilderberg organization, which maintains a small semi-nomadic office in the Netherlands, releases the list of attendees to the public. I seem to recall that either the organization releases a list of general topics discussed after the meeting, or that attendees are allowed to refer generally to the topics discussed, but they are forbidden to go into details and particularly forbidden to say who said what.
This allows enterprising investigators to find out in general terms what went on, especially since opinions will differ on what constitute details. I have not come across the source listed at the top of this thread, so I don't know how reliable he is and whether what he says is true.
I must say that I cannot imagine the Bush administration permitting a UN-imposed tax on oil. This would be diametrically opposed to everything they stand for. I am certain that this is a dead letter.
As for demand destruction by crashing the economy, this seems more plausible to me, despite this snippet from MicroHydro:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'w')ww.fromthewilderness.com has an article today suggesting that "demand destruction" by raising interest rates won't work very well. There was only a 9.6% reduction in oil use 1980-1982 during a rather nasty high interest rate induced recession. Also, the twin deficits of the US pose a much higher risk of creating a full scale economic meltdown if high interest rate policies are followed. Better to just let inflation happen, people will conserve when oil is expensive.
I must admit that I could not find the article he refers to on that website, so I will address his synopsis. According to this snippet, "demand destruction" by raising interest rates won't work well because high interest rates brought only a 9.6% reduction in oil use in the 1980-82 recession. Meanwhile, the twin deficits of the US pose a risk of an economic meltdown if interest rates are raised. This is both internally contradictory and badly reasoned.
If the goal is to destroy demand, then surely an economic meltdown would be the most effective way to do it. An economic meltdown did not happen in the early 80s because the finances of the US at that time were more generally sound.
I would argue that the US has a triple deficit: the current account deficit financed by foreign lending, the fiscal (federal budget) deficit, and a consumer spending deficit (spending above and beyond income financed by bubble-induced real estate appreciation). These three things are the only reason that the US economy is not already in a severe recession. The distortions and imbalances that have been allowed to grow under the triple deficits have further undermined the viability of the US economy. These imbalances guarantee that when a credit crisis or drop in demand in the US occurs (for example because of higher interest rates), there will be an economic meltdown that will probably be far worse, in the Americas and in East Asia, than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Actually a depression comparable to the 1930s would be a best-case scenario in my view.
Such a depression would result in a very substantial drop in demand for oil.
It would also facilitate the centralization of wealth in the hands of the superrich, who would be left standing as creditors and as the holders of most of the physical assets in the US. This would happen when millions of middle-class Americans are forced into default on their mortgages, when corporations go into bankruptcy and are liquidated, and when banks fail and their mortgage portfolios are distributed to creditors.
True, even the superrich would see a temporary drop in their income. But they have far more income than they need, and this would be a small price to pay for obtaining total control of what is still one of the richest countries in the world in terms of physical assets and a skilled labor force.
