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Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Roy » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 10:01:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orked real good under Bush, eh?

Tax cut's for the wealthy an more jobs offshored?
\

The partisan bickering here is hilarious. As if there is some substantive difference between the core policies of either party (take out God, Guns, and Gays just for giggles).

Anyway VM and other Democrats who blame Bush for all the off-shoring, did you all forget about the CEO of GE, Jeffrey Immelt? The guy who Obama appointed as the 'jobs czar'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_R._Immelt

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n February 2009, Immelt was appointed as a member to the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board to provide the president and his administration with advice and counsel in fixing America's economic downturn.[10]

On January 21, 2011, President Obama announced Immelt's appointment as chairman of his outside panel of economic advisers, succeeding former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker.[11] The New York Times reported that Obama's appointment of Immelt was "another strong signal that he intends to make the White House more business-friendly."[11] Immelt will retain his post at G.E. while becoming "chairman of the Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, a newly named panel that President Obama is creating by executive order."[11]


Obama can sure pick the good ones:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_R._Immelt

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')mmelt was named to Time magazine's 100 most influential people in the world in 2008.[5] He was also named one of the five worst Non-Financial-Crisis-Related CEOs of 2008 by the Free Enterprise Action Fund.[6] Since taking over, GE's stock has dropped nearly 60%.


How much does this guy make per year?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_R._Immelt

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s CEO of General Electric in 2007, Immelt earned a total compensation of $14,209,267, which included a base salary of $3,300,000, a cash bonus of $5,800,000, stocks granted of $4,713,000, and options granted of $0.


And with this week's announcement of GE moving its medical imaging products division to China, along with an additional $2 billion investment in 6 'customer innovation' centers, you have to wonder where this guy's loyalties lie.

http://articles.boston.com/2011-07-26/business/29817324_1_ge-healthcare-x-ray-business-china-last-year

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') General Electric Co.’s health care unit, the world’s biggest maker of medical imaging machines, is moving the headquarters of its 115-year-old X-ray business to Beijing.

“A handful’’ of top managers will move to the Chinese capital and there won’t be any job cuts, said Anne LeGrand, general manager of X-ray for GE Healthcare. The headquarters will move from Wisconsin amid a broader plan to invest about $2 billion across China, including opening six “customer innovation’’ and development centers.


You'd think, based on partisan beliefs about a party's core values, that the Democratic President would have more of a man of the people to chair the Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.

Hence my contention that there is no substantive difference between the 2 parties -- their evolution has converged -- one is a whale and the other a fish -- they live in an ocean of debt and they subsist from the efforts of others.

They are effectively sponsored by the same people and while their rhetoric sounds different, they continue to follow the same destructive policies... even Pop's graphic showed how Obama hasn't attempted to repeal any of Bush's foolish policy implementations. Instead, he's basically continued them and in some cases accelerated them.

back on topic....

My prediction: nothing will change right away. The debt ceiling will be raised and the status quo will continue. As bad as that is for the future generations of Americans, that is what will happen.

There is no political will in DC to live within our means. From either party. Evidently they think we can borrow money infinitely or to borrow a metaphor from Karl Denninger, they believe in skittle shitting unicorns.

I close with this graph:

Image

Under Bush, the 'conservative' the US gov annual budget went from $2T to $3.4T while revenues ranged from $2t to $2.6T. What on earth is conservative about spending more than you make? Consistently year after year? About almost doubling a government budget?

There are no fiscal conservatives in DC. If there were that graph wouldn't look like that.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby patience » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 10:32:57

Poitics is a diversion for the masses to argue about whilst TPTB fleece them of every last cent. Ignore their actions at your own peril, but don't believe a word they say. Spend your time more productively doing something for yourself and those you care about.

Now, back to our scheduled national bankruptcy. :twisted:
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 11:14:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'W')ay to go pops. Publish figures that only a completely biased and economically illiterate hard line leftist would believe.

Those are CBO numbers.

If only "hard line leftists" believe Obama started 2 elective wars, gave away the store to the wealthy with tax breaks, gave a blank check to drug companies, spent a trillion on bailouts and stimulus and increased "other" spending over half a trillion... all before he took office, then it's pretty obvious where the problem lies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 2001, President George W. Bush inherited a surplus, with projections by the Congressional Budget Office for ever-increasing surpluses, assuming continuation of the good economy and President Bill Clinton’s policies. But every year starting in 2002, the budget fell into deficit. In January 2009, just before President Obama took office, the budget office projected a $1.2 trillion deficit for 2009 and deficits in subsequent years, based on continuing Mr. Bush’s policies and the effects of recession. Mr. Obama’s policies in 2009 and 2010, including the stimulus package, added to the deficits in those years but are largely temporary.


Of course the dems believe in big government and paying taxes, the safety net is their touchstone, the problem is the pubs believe in big government and NOT paying taxes.

I can't figure out why republicans are being so coy, the Big Idea has for years been to break the government:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') prime reason why we have a budget deficit problem in this country is because Republicans almost universally believe in a nonsensical idea called starve the beast (STB). By this theory, the one and only thing they need to do to be fiscally responsible is to cut taxes. They need not lift a finger to cut spending because it will magically come down, just as a child will reduce her spending if her allowance is cut — the precise analogy used by Ronald Reagan to defend this doctrine in a Feb. 5, 1981, address to the nation.


Kind of a "We had to destroy the village to save it" kind of reasoning.


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/opini ... .html?_r=1
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2 ... aspx#page1
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 11:34:53

The village is fine... its the mayor's office that is getting hosed the worst.

STB is a valid (if malicious) political goal, and it is getting close to fruition. Took longer than Ronald the Great probably thought it would, but we did have a couple intervening bubbles and some massive paper printing that interfered. Will see how it plays out.

Greenies often say they want power-down and a return to a more sustainable way of life... They're gonna get it with a sledgehammer via STB. Then they'll understand that it isn't the American Nobility that will be forced to endure some heinous privation; it will be them and their servant class who will bear the unpleasantness.

Don't worry though, they'll still be allowed to vote for same sex marriages, concealed carry permits, and bike paths...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 12:01:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'D')on't worry though, they'll still be allowed to vote for same sex marriages, concealed carry permits, and bike paths...

I was just ranting to my long suffering wife about the advantages of the parliamentary system as opposed to the US presidential system. Don't get me wrong, I'm proud of our experiment, I just sometimes feel people - especially those with narrow interests like you mention, would be happier with little niche parties who always have some say instead of the wild pendulum swings and election cycle memories/goals we constantly face.

Guess they <<government systems that is>> all have their faults.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby prajeshbhat » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 12:22:26

I can see the rationale behind STB, lower taxes will automatically lead to lower government spending (which means more for the rich wealth creators and less for the moochers). But the way things are going, most probably the government will continue to go full steam ahead of deficits until it self-destructs into oblivion overnight. That means riots on the streets followed by mafia rule. Sure, americans still believe that because they have guns they can defend themselves against any enemy (rugged individualist). But those guns will not give you a job. That's where China comes in. Not that the US government could afford a big military to stop them.
A Chinese oil company(with full backing from the chinese government) recently made a bid for Unocal. It was the US government that saved Unocal. When the government is gone you can expect the Chinese government to buy up all you big corporations for peanuts. You think big government is bad now - say hello to your new employer, the Communist Party of China. Of course they will only pay $4 a day...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 12:46:05

More from the "China is the Enemy" brigade...

If China bids hard, the price in dollars for property X goes up. Price of property X goes up in a recorded sale between willing buyer and seller, it sets property tax valuation. The higher the price, the higher the tax collected. And that money from the sale goes somewhere, in fact, it goes into the hands of people who will bid against China and others for property Y; further advancing the price valuation in dollars. Repeat a few thousand times, and you're talking serious inflation, and serious value destruction of China's current position in dollars.

Trust me, if they could liquidate their dollar position while preserving value, they would have done it last year. This is why China's internal analysis thinks the US is already in default; but their economy is still so tied to ours that they can't undo their position. Thus, they remain p**** off, but helpless.

I suspect China will continue buying stuff (Africa/Asia/SA) that allows them to acquire hard value for their dollars, without doing much to contribute to inflationary and tax exposure within the US. If a really good deal comes along, of course they'll try (your Unocal for instance); but I can't see them trying to force the issue repeatedly, as that will do more to damage them and strengthen their competitors than anything else could.

As to riots, and the general threat of mayhem. I refer you to food stamp cards. Let me know when they stop working. Bob won't riot, because Bob can still put a bowl of oatmeal on the table in front of his kid. Those cards won't stop working, not even if the US ceased to exist as a country; its just too effective for the state/regional agencies to ever allow them to fail. You couldn't buy better crowd control with all the money on Earth. Feral, drug crazed, moron gangs, otoh, might show their face more often, but they are no threat to governance, and not really much of a threat to the general population. (when they put down the uziesque junk, and grab .308's bolt guns with scopes, let me know.) So no, Bob stays home in the American version of poverty, because his kid is still fat and stays fat off of the vast calorie producing machine of American industrial farming, aided by that wondrous piece of plastic called a food stamp card.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Timo » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 12:49:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'G')uess they <<government systems that is>> all have their faults.


Hey Pops! I'm glad you recognized that the roads and highways in your neck of the woods absolutely suck! That's perhaps THE biggest fault of your government. Those bureaucrats at MoDOT think that potholes are simply dots, and MoDOT simply means more dots. Not to worry though. I'm right next door where highways actually cost me money to use each and every time i drive your way. All those millions of dollars are collected for perpetual maintenance and construction projects, which keeps them as functional as your highways.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby prajeshbhat » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 13:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore from the "China is the Enemy" brigade...


I never said china is the enemy. China never intended to liquidate their dollar holdings in the first place. The reason they bought them was to keep the dollar up and renminbi low, which helps their export economy and keeps their people employed. Now the deficits are so huge that china has stopped bothering. The dollar will hyperinflate no matter what the chinese do. So the chinese will be buying your corporations in Renminbi, not in dollars. Most of the companies are drowning in debt anyway, there will be no willing buyer and willing seller. The companies will be sold in desperation by wall street (institutional investors) for whatever the Chinese (and maybe mexicans, saudis, russians) are willing to pay. Not that you have Unions any more that can protect worker rights.....
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 13:09:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('prajeshbhat', 'B')ut the way things are going, most probably the government will continue to go full steam ahead of deficits until it self-destructs into oblivion overnight.


This is exactly the philosophy behind STB. Cutting spending was found to be politically impossible. Republicans tried and tried but would be on the losing end politically for a long time. But, cutting taxes was popular. Thus came the Republican-developed, but Democrat-accepted doctrine that "deficits don't matter", tax cuts do. There was a lot of talk about how cutting taxes would lead to more revenue due to the growth it would induce. I think some may have believed this, but most had their eye on the day when the debt burden would crush the government. I had one friend who is a right-wing local Republican operative tell me in the early 90's that he thought he only way to reduce the government was to force-feed it until it was bloated and then kick it in the stomach.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 13:36:55

I predict that Obarfa will invoke the 14th Amendment so as to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s fears intensify that Congress will not pass a debt limit increase in time to avoid default, some Democrats are pulling out their pocket Constitutions to find a back-up plan. Assistant Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn, R-S.C., said today that if a long-term deal is not struck by Aug. 2, President Obama should sign an executive order raising the debt ceiling without Congressional approval. He said this action would be justified because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states that “the validity of the public debt ... shall not be questioned.” ... The argument is that a default would put the “validity of the public debt” in jeopardy, thus violating the 14th Amendment. And since the president took a vow to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution” it would then be his responsibility to ensure that the country does not default.

But constitutional scholars are divided over whether the amendment would, in fact, justify the president to unilaterally take action on the debt ceiling. Laurence Tribe, a constitutional scholar at Harvard University and one of President Obama’s former professors, told ABC News earlier this month that the 14th Amendment must be upheld by Congress, not by the president. ... “It’s a tempting [argument], but I think it’s fundamentally fallacious because it assumes that the executive branch is the branch of government that has the ability to enforce the 14th Amendment. Section 5 makes clear it is Congress that has that power,” Tribe said.

... “Believe me, the idea of doing things on my own is very tempting,” Obama said Monday at the annual meeting of the National Council of La Raza. ... If the president does decide to use the amendment, House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson said today that “his caucus is prepared to stand behind him.” “We have to have a fail-safe mechanism," said Larson, D-Conn. "We believe that fail-safe mechanism is the 14th Amendment and the president of the United States."
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 13:57:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'I') predict that Obarfa will ... declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')... “Believe me, the idea of doing things on my own is very tempting,” Obama said..."


Image

If Obama is going to decide which laws are unconstitutional or not and just start "doing things on his own", then why even have a Supreme Court or a Congress....

All hail King Obama!
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 14:59:32

Planted, don't forget the Rethugs have turned our American Stars upside down. :badgrin:

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 15:03:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('prajeshbhat', 'I') never said china is the enemy. China never intended to liquidate their dollar holdings in the first place. The reason they bought them was to keep the dollar up and renminbi low, which helps their export economy and keeps their people employed. Now the deficits are so huge that china has stopped bothering. The dollar will hyperinflate no matter what the chinese do. So the chinese will be buying your corporations in Renminbi, not in dollars. Most of the companies are drowning in debt anyway, there will be no willing buyer and willing seller. The companies will be sold in desperation by wall street (institutional investors) for whatever the Chinese (and maybe mexicans, saudis, russians) are willing to pay. Not that you have Unions any more that can protect worker rights.....


I don't mind Chinese buying corporations, but they can't buy them in renminbi, until they allow it to float.
They are a very long way from allowing that to happen.

The problem you are having is in understanding the impact of the fact that both the valuation, and the debt held by those companies are denominated in dollars. I'll do a mini-financial statement for you to illustrate...

Bob's Generic Corpomatic [before Chinese buying spree]
Asssets
Real Property 200
Inventory 50
Fixed Assets 50
Liabilities
Short Term 150
Long Term 300
Equity
Stuff <150>

Bob's Generic Corpomatic [after Chinese buying spree]
Asssets
Real Property 2000
Inventory 500
Fixed Assets 500
Liabilities
Short Term 200
Long Term 300
Equity
Stuff 2500

This is what inflation does. It changes the numerical value of things, without making more things.

That's the problem with the "foreigners will buy you all out" nonsense. Because most corporations in the US do business strictly in dollars, and are traded in dollars, and owe dollars. If China (or any other nation) tried to buy a sizable quantity of them, it pushes the value of the renminbi way up; and the dollar way down; forcing a revaluation of those balance sheets, the property taxes owed; and substantially alters the dollar based Owner's Equity.

The neater thing about this, is that while it effects an honest appraisal of the non-tax balance sheet; it does *not* create an income event. So the company goes from <150> underwater, to a very solid 2500 in equity value; with very little activity. [of course, if they tried to make that equity into cash by selling Real Property for instance, then there'd be a nasty income event.. bad ole taxes!!!]

Greatly simplified of course, but good nuff for a bbs post.

End result, yes, the Chinese will be continuing to increase their holdings in property and large international companies, and may from time to time pickup the really good value that shows up in US domestic markets; but they could never manage to buy up large portions of US domestic corporations without absolutely destroying their control of their own currency. Basic rule, you can't buy something substantial without putting upward pressure on its price.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 15:09:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'I') predict that Obarfa will invoke the 14th Amendment so as to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

What would be consequences of such a move as per your opinion?
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 15:12:07

Consequence: Soros pays to have a crown crafted for Lord Obama.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 15:22:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'I') predict that Obarfa will invoke the 14th Amendment so as to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

What would be consequences of such a move as per your opinion?


My guess is that the US Supreme Court will be asked to hear and decide the issue on an emergency (expedited) basis. To the extent that there is no direct precedent on the issue, the Supreme Court will have wide latitude to craft its own interpretation of the 14th Amendment. Since the Supreme Court is owned by the banking cartel, the issue then boils down to "what is best for Wall St. banks?"
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 15:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'I') predict that Obarfa will invoke the 14th Amendment so as to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

What would be consequences of such a move as per your opinion?


You didn't ask me, but in my opinion it would lead to a court challenge at least, and maybe an impeachment attempt.

The white house has said that it's not on the table though

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ours after Democratic leaders implored President Obama to invoke the 14th Amendment to unilaterally raise the nation's borrowing limit, the White House again swatted the idea down, saying only Congress has the authority to act.


Not a good way to start a court case, although it may be ireelevant what their opinion is now.

I'd be curious to see what the SCOTUS would say about that 14th amendment clause and what exactly it does mean:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion shall not be questioned.


One possible outcome of a Supreme Court ruling is that the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 could be declared unconstitutional as it usurps congresses Consitutional obligation to enforce the validity of public debt.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 15:31:58

Thanks all 3 of you for your comments.
Nothing good would come as a consequence in any case...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 17:31:21

CBS: Reid plans quick vote and defeat of Boehner debt plan (1 hr ago)
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